I’ve read more than one comparison of Nigeria and Sudan. Both countries have a political, religious, and cultural split between North and South. Both countries have forms of shari’a law, in Sudan at the national level and in Nigeria at the state level.
Port Harcourt, Nigeria
And both countries have oil – and conflict. But as the situation in Nigeria improves, at least temporarily, the situation in Sudan remains bad.
Nigeria
Glimmers of hope are appearing in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where an amnesty between the government and rebel groups created a real opportunity for peace. As rebels lay down their arms and the government prepares a stimulus package for the region, it’s possible that resources will be distributed in a way everyone can live with.
I’m not alone in seeing improvement. In an email for their Crisis Watch Bulletin, the International Crisis Group writes:
[In October,] hopes for peace in Nigeria’s Niger Delta increased, as thousands of militants laid down arms in response to the government’s three-month amnesty program and the dominant militant group MEND announced a new indefinite ceasefire. Whilst these are significant steps forward, concerns for stability in the region remain, including the government’s capacity to deliver reintegration programs and prospects for much-needed development.
Re-training programs for rebels will soon begin. Still, skepticism remains, and groups in the Delta have already voiced frustration with the implementation of promised programs. Some have also warned of potential economic consequences for Nigeria: if oil companies feel burdened by new royalties and regulations, the Wall Street Journal argues, they may focus elsewhere in West Africa. Still, even the chance for peace is better than continued fighting.
Sudan
Problems in Sudan, meanwhile, are not going away. As the country heads toward national elections next spring, fears of renewed civil war between North and South loom large. International monitoring groups are already concerned about problems with a voter registration drive that began this week, and Southern officials have expressed unhappiness with the effort. In the midst of these political problems, ethnic violence broke out yet again this week in the South:
The latest violence reportedly broke out between rival ethnic groups in the early hours of Sunday in a village near Malakal town, about 300 miles (480km) north of regional capital Juba.
They were the latest in a series of clashes in southern Sudan – a region where the UN estimates more than 2,000 people have died and 250,000 have been displaced this year.
The BBC’s Peter Martell, in Juba, says although the clashes are not believed to be connected to the election process, they do indicate the enormous logistical and security challenges the authorities face.
This violence, as the BBC points out, fits into a pattern of recurring clashes in South Sudan that some observers believe is a prelude to civil war. Some Southern leaders have even accused the North of involvement in the violence.
Some of the violence, and other problems in South Sudan, may have to do with a familiar problem: inequitable distributions of oil money. The BBC reports that while the government in the South has received $7 billion in oil revenues since the 2005 peace deal, relatively little has reached ordinary people in the region. That exacerbates political tensions within and between communities and increases the pressure on Southern leaders. That pressure could undermine confidence in the government, or it could lead Southern politicians to become more aggressive toward the North – either by blaming it for Southern problems, demanding a larger share of oil revenues or, at the absolute worst, seeking an outlet for local frustration through war.
Oil is not, from what I understand, the primary cause of the conflict between North and South – for that we need to look to a complex and interlocking set of factors like the colonial legacy, racial and religious politics, etc. But oil does play a significant role in the conflict, for example in border disputes over the centrally-located and oil-rich Abyei region. Nigeria’s attempted solution could not be duplicated in Sudan. But Sudan, too, will face the problem of how to allocate oil resources without sparking conflict between regions, between people and their leaders, or between different groups on the local level.
