Ethiopian Elections: Opposition Dissent and Weakness

Ethiopia will hold parliamentary elections in 2010, and though official campaigning begins in December the participants are already jockeying for position. Most observers bet on a win by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and its leader, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, but it’s worth watching what the opposition does as it fights to remain relevant.

Harar, Ethiopia

Earlier this month, the EPRDF and three opposition parties signed an electoral code of conduct that laid out ground rules – binding for signatories and non-signatories – for the contest. A group of eight parties called Medrek or the Forum refused to participate in the talks. Now Medrek/Forum is denouncing the code, saying the EPRDF is “using its control of the government to systematically crush opponents ahead of next year’s national elections” and that “negotiations between the [EPRDF] and other opposition parties are ignoring the most important issues.

The head of one of the Forum members, Beyene Petros, says they want to engage the EPRDF in bilateral talks about what he calls “breaking the ruling party’s stranglehold on the electoral machinery.” “These are our specific issues – desist from the illicit use of EPRDF membership as a pre-condition for job opportunities; respect for the rule of law by the EPRDF and its government, for example, put an immediate end to all extra legal imprisonment. Free all political prisoners. Make EPRDF officials and cadres accountable for the breach of the law of the land, prevent interference in the election process, separate government and ruling party functions,” Petros said.

Last week, opposition parties issued a list of 450 of their members who have been jailed to keep them from running as candidates in parliamentary elections set for May.

More on the story of the opposition arrests here.

Will tough talk from opposition groups put them in a strong electoral position? Reuters says Medrek is “seen as the most significant threat to Meles,” but also writes that Ethiopia’s opposition is weak overall. The three most prominent opposition figures from the last elections in 2005, Reuters says, have been effectively silenced.

Reuters also suggests that Western powers will quietly support Meles’ continued tenure in office.

Despite accusations of a crackdown on dissent, diplomats in the capital say the West would be comfortable with Meles staying on — as long as he remains a loyal ally in the volatile Horn of Africa and liberalises his potentially huge economy.

Secular Ethiopia is Washington’s key supporter in the region and sent troops into neighbouring Somalia in 2006 to oust an Islamist group which had seized the capital.

“Most Western governments want Meles to continue because there is no alternative in the opposition,” said one diplomat in Addis Ababa who did not want to be named.

“As long as the elections are semi-democratic, they’ll probably stay quiet, keep giving aid, hope for liberalisation of the economy and leave full democracy for later,” he said.

Foreign investors, who are showing interest in exporting commodities and exploring Ethiopia for probable oil and gas deposits, want stability, analysts say. If the opposition takes power, the future would be uncertain and investments delayed as foreign governments and lenders jostle for influence.

These remarks speak to some questions I raised last week about the role of outside forces in the elections.

I will be interested to see whether the Medrek coalition ultimately signs the electoral code. The regime is clearly operating from a position of strength; they are keen to avoid a repeat of 2005′s violence, I imagine, but unlikely to look with kindness on aggressive rhetoric from the opposition.