Ethiopia, the ONLF, and the Somali Civil War

In the Ogaden, a region of Ethiopia home to many ethnic Somalis, the separatist Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has launched a new round of fighting against the state. This fighting has repercussions not just for Ethiopia, but also for war-torn Somalia next door.

Ogaden region, Ethiopia

It is difficult to tell exactly what is happening in the Ogaden. The ONLF says it has inflicted hundreds of casualties on the Ethiopian army, but the government in Addis Ababa denies these claims. Journalists have not been able to enter the area.

However severe the fighting is, it seems clear that at least some violence is taking place. That, in and of itself, has regional implications. Ethiopia’s government accuses its rival Eritrea of funding the ONLF, which keeps tensions between the two countries running high. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian-Somali border region is already the zone of intense fighting, including cross-border interventions by Ethiopia in Somalia‘s Hiran region. Reports from Somalia continue to speak of Ethiopian troop movements inside the country. With violent conflict raging at their doorstep, and armed rebellion inside their territory, the Ethiopian military is likely on edge, to say the least.

ONLF actions have repercussions not just for Ethiopian-Somali interactions, but also for the interlocking conflicts inside Somalia. As Somalia’s two main Islamist groups, al Shabab and Hizbul Islam, continue to spar, al Shabab is accusing the ONLF of supporting Hizbul Islam. (To complicate matters, Ethiopia claims that ONLF assists al Shabab).

It’s difficult to disentangle all the potential relationships here, but VOA’s suggestion that “the fighters identified as ONLF by al-Shabab may be a group from the Ogaden region. But they are more likely to be fighting alongside [Hizbul Islam] as fellow clan members rather than as representatives of the ONLF” may be on the money. If so, that means regardless of what groups are formally allied with other groups, the ethnic Somalis on both sides of the border are involved in the conflict regardless of their official nationality. Depending on the scale of that involvement, this trend could destabilize eastern Ethiopia.

Back in Addis Ababa, meanwhile, maneuvering in advance of Ethiopia’s 2010 parliamentary elections continues. The Globe and Mail writes that the ruling party is conducting a “campaign of intimidation,” and the British government is concerned about charges that Ethiopia is “keeping food aid from opposition members to force them to join the ruling party.” But Western aid to and support for Ethiopia’s government is likely to continue, and as many observers have mentioned, that support may play a key role in maintaining the ruling party in power.

What effect would increased violence and instability in eastern Ethiopia and western Somalia have on the political atmosphere in Ethiopia, and on Western countries’ calculations regarding their support for Ethiopia? No one can predict the future, but it seems more likely to me that instability will boost, not reduce, Western powers’ support for Ethiopia as a bulwark against greater chaos in the region.