Guinea: Will International Pressure Result in a Democratic Transition?

International pressure on Guinea’s military junta continues, and the country’s leadership may give in to the demand to hold elections. The problem is, the leadership seems to be largely absent.

First, the pressure. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was in Burkina Faso on Sunday, coordinating strategies with Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore. Compaore is leading the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) mediation effort in Guinea, and that country’s crisis received major attention in Kouchner and Compaore’s meeting.

Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

On the Guinea crisis, Kouchner expressed hope that an African solution could be found because “it’s with the African Union that we began the journey and without it, the international community cannot do anything. It’s upon the Guinean people and the African community to control the situation during the transition and electioneering period.”

Kouchner also made it clear that with the current situation in Guinea and an interim government in power, the next elections are likely to be based on a second plan of its facilitator Compaore.

According to the French minister, the facilitator assured him that the consultations will be organized within the West African bloc ECOWAS in the coming week.

The Telegraph places Kouchner’s visit to Ouagadougou in a larger diplomatic context. Despite talk of an “African solution,” Philippe Rater writes, a flurry of American and French diplomatic activity has occurred, aiming to prevent the return to Guinea of nearly-assassinated former leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara. Washington and Paris fear that Camara’s reinstallation could spark civil war, or that he wouldn’t give up power, or both. Western powers much prefer to deal with Sekouba Konate, who has become caretaker leader of Guinea in Camara’s absence.

Early this month, Konate went for a week to Morocco to see Camara, whose medical condition is unclear, and the United States, France and Moroccan envoys all seized the occasion to meet the new junta chief. “Moroccans worked with the diplomatic corps, setting up the discussions,” a negotiator said.

Once they were over, Rabat revealed that “several working sessions have been held directly with General Konate or alternatively with senior French and American officials”.

Washington was represented by assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Johnnie Carson, while Paris was represented by Andre Parent, who is President Sarkozy’s advisder on Africa.

A plan was drawn up on sharing power, which was submitted to Konate. In return the Americans, French and Moroccans promised to train his army and to provide him with technical aid.

On January 6 Konate made a speech in which he offered to share power with a prime minister chosen by the opposition, and his decision was swiftly welcomed by Paris, Washington, Rabat and the regional Economic Community of West African States.

So, things could go the way Western diplomats hope. But with Konate potentially ill and out of the country himself (or perhaps not), no one is counting their democratic chickens yet, especially as Konate apparently “has a record of health problems and was evacuated to Morocco for treatment last year.”

When I think about politics, I tend to give more weight to institutional and environmental forces than to specific individuals, but this situation in Guinea is teaching me some lessons about individuals’ impact and the repercussions that wild chance and pure contingency can have. What if the bullet had missed Camara? What if Konate has a fatal heart attack? The fate of these individuals is playing a huge role in shaping the country’s trajectory right now. I’m not saying Konate is some kind of hero or savior, but it does seem we should hope, for the sake of Guinea’s prospects of avoiding a civil war, that Konate stays in good health and follows through on a transition to civilian rule. The military junta survived Camara’s absence, but things could get even shakier soon if Konate too is absent and there is no clear leadership in the country.