Africa News Roundup: Traore Returns to Mali, Constituent Assembly Meets in Somalia, Senegal Boosts Electricity, and More

Mali’s interim President Dioncounda Traore returned home yesterday from France, after a two-month recuperation.

In Somalia, the National Constituent Assembly “began a marathon-nine-day meeting on Wednesday to debate on a provisional constitution, before final ratification by a national referendum.” This is a critical step in the transition process, though it comes behind schedule.

AP on evictions in the Makoko area of Lagos, Nigeria:

Makoko is a sprawling community of bamboo homes and shacks built out of driftwood, close to the University of Lagos campus and visible to daily traffic that plies the Third Mainland Bridge, the link from the mainland to the city’s islands. Those living in Makoko subsist largely as fishermen and workers in nearby saw mills, cutting up water-logged timber that’s floated into the city daily. Some work jobs outside of the slum as gate guards and in other industries, though most live almost entirely within its watery boundaries.

The people of Makoko have created their own life independent from the state, with its own schools and clinics, however ill-equipped. Commerce goes on in its creek alleyways as women sell sizzling dishes and goods from canoes. Others sell videos and telephone airtime cards from the shacks just above the waterline, where a maze of wooden planks connects the homes.

Senegal has received an $85 million loan to help boost electricity.

The Guardian: “Burkina Faso’s School for Shepherds Thrives”

Kenyan presidential candidates Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, even if one of them is elected in March 2013, would still have to stand trial at the International Criminal Court, where they face charges of fomenting post-electoral violence in 2007-2008.

After a strike that cost twelve production days, work has resumed at First Quantum’s Guelb Moghrein mine.

What else is going on?

Africa News Roundup: Sahel Food Crisis, Ethiopia to Leave Somalia, Boko Haram, Senegal Opposition Rally, and More

Oxfam now says, “Some 13 million people are at severe risk from a food crisis which is set to escalate into a full scale humanitarian emergency in the Sahel region of West and Central Africa if urgent action is not taken.” AFP has more.

VOA: “A senior Sudanese negotiator said he sees little hope for progress in talks with South Sudan on contentious issues left over from the two countries’ separation last July. Mediators in Addis Ababa are measuring progress in millimeters.” The BBC reports on conflict in the borderlands between the two countries.

Ethiopia plans to remove its forces from Somalia by the end of April. Kenya’s troops in Somalia, meanwhile, will soon officially become part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

In other Kenya news, “The International Criminal Court on Friday rejected bids by Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya’s former finance minister and three others to have charges dropped against them related to the country’s 2007 election violence.”

Gen. Soumaila Bakayoko of Cote d’Ivoire told reporters yesterday that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) may intervene militarily in Mali’s civil war. The Wall Street Journal reports on the more than 100,000 people who have been displaced by the fighting in Mali.

News continues to trickle out concerning the failed rescue of two European hostages in Northwestern Nigeria on Thursday. Weekly Trust has published a detailed account of the raid. Boko Haram, suspected of involvement in the kidnapping, has denied that it played a role. Nigerian authorities have made at least five arrests in connection with the killings. Meanwhile, another battle between Boko Haram and the police took place yesterday in Kano.

Elsewhere, another hostage crisis may be over: “Ethiopian rebels say they have released two German tourists who were taken captive during a gun-battle in January.”

Prominent politicians will rally in support of Senegalese presidential challenger Macky Sall tomorrow.

Last but not least, Burkina Faso “has fired 136 policemen who were involved in a mutiny last year.”

I’m especially curious to hear readers’ reactions to this idea of an ECOWAS intervention in Mali. Is it possible?

Kenya: Ruto, Sang, and Kosgey Back to The Hague for ICC Confirmation of Charges Hearing

September will mark a new phase in the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s legal proceedings against six Kenyans accused of fomenting post-election violence in 2007-2008. From September 1-12, three of the six (William Ruto, Joshua Arap Sang, and Henry Kosgey) will attend “confirmation of charges” hearings in The Hague, where the ICC will determine whether enough evidence exists to go forward with a trial. Later in the month, the three remaining suspects (Uhuru Kenyatta, Francis Muthaura, and Hussein Ali) will undergo the same process.

A key question going forward will be whether, and how, the ICC case affects Kenya’s internal politics.

Profiles of all six suspects are available here, but two suspects, Ruto and Kenyatta, are prominent candidates in the 2012 presidential race, and are also participants in key struggles taking place in the present. Ruto is the head of a dissident faction within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the party of Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Odinga has moved to kick Ruto out of both the party and the new cabinet. The ICC indictment may have weakened Ruto’s position politically, but Ruto remains defiant, saying that he will run for president even if the trial is still ongoing. Kenyatta, meanwhile, survived the cabinet reshuffle, keeping his position as Finance Minister and remaining a major player in Kenya’s inflation crisis. President Mwai Kibaki may have been willing to sacrifice Ruto for a better relationship with Odinga and a shot at a legacy less tarnished by the 2007-2008 violence, but Kenyatta, ICC indictment notwithstanding, seems “too big to fail.” And though, as Reuters points out, Odinga has a lead in the polls, “his rivals’ combined support could unsettle him.” One source argues that a Kenyatta-Ruto “coalition of the damned” could beat Odinga, and put someone else – presumably Kenyatta – into the president’s seat next year.

As Ruto, Sang, and Kosgey head to The Hague this week, it will be important how their constituencies react. Ruto’s prayer rallies have generated press coverage, as have his remarks calling on other ODM leaders not to support the ICC case. These remarks underscore the potential of the ICC case to heighten tensions within and between parties, and between the country’s different ethnic groups.

NTV Kenya has a video report on the ICC case:

Kenya: The ICC’s “Ocampo Six” Case Moves Forward, Setting Stage for Tensions

Kenya’s “Ocampo Six” are six political figures accused by International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo of having played critical roles in fomenting political violence following Kenya’s 2007 presidential elections. In April, the suspects appeared before the Court for a formal presentation of the charges against them. In September, the suspects will return to The Hague for a “confirmation of charges” hearing, the last major stage before trials begin. Daily Nation explains the calendar:

The oral hearings for the case against radio presenter Joshua Sang and suspended ministers William Ruto and Henry Kosgey would close on September 20 but the judges may ask the parties for more information in writing.

If the judges are satisfied with the oral submissions, the three would know whether they will go to trial by November 20 but the date may be later if the judges ask the parties for more information.

The oral hearing of the case against Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Civil Service head Francis Muthaura and former police commissioner Hussein Ali will run from September 21 to October 11.

The three will then know their fate as early as December 20 or later if the judges ask for more information.

Many Kenyan leaders are still not on board with the process. Some of the suspects want the hearings delayed. Kenyan investigators are interviewing the suspects as the government appeals to the ICC to allow Kenya to try the accused at home. But it seems the case will go forward; Kenya already lost one appeal to handle the cases on its own.

The timing of the different phases of the case set the stage for domestic tensions to grow in Kenya. The next presidential elections won’t be until December 2012, but campaigning has already effectively begun. Uhuru Kenyatta, current Finance Minister and one of the accused, is a major presidential aspirant. Although several polls have shown that a majority of Kenyans support the ICC process, if campaigning heats up at the same time that the trial intensifies, Kenyatta’s supporters could begin to say that the ICC is interfering in Kenyan politics and unfairly targeting their champion. Further politicization of the ICC case would add to the potential for a tense election year.

To stress the point even further, I’ve become increasingly convinced that law is politics, or at least that there is blurry line between the legal realm and the political realm. Putting it more concretely, the ICC has become an actor not just in the legal sphere, but also in Kenyan politics. That involvement carries risks of unintended consequences, risks that are particularly chilling in light of fears that next year will be another bloodbath.

Africa News Roundup: Senegal, Nigeria, Niger, China in Africa, and More

Senegal’s President Abdoulaye Wade continues with his plans to seek re-election in 2012.

Nigerians will vote in state elections on Tuesday. Following last week’s riots, the government has deployed more troops and closed the borders. Defeated presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari, meanwhile, continues to draw criticism, and was recently banned from entering Niger State.

Dele Olojede, publisher of Nigeria’s Next, has an op-ed in the New York Times on the presidential elections that is well worth reading.

In the country of Niger, the new President Mahamdou Issoufou has appointed his cabinet.

AFP reports on AQIM’s latest (alleged) activities in the Sahel:

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is building a new base in Mali near the Mauritanian border, with a view to attacking that country, security sources said Thursday.

“We have learned that vehicles are transporting AQIM fighters into the Wagadou forest, in a zone situated in the east in the Malian district of Nara, not far from the Mauritanian border. It is a new base they are installing,” one of the security sources told AFP.

In Burkina Faso, where there is ongoing unrest among soldiers, students, merchants, and others, President Blaise Compaore has appointed himself as defense minister.

Mr Compaore revealed the move in a cabinet reshuffle announced on national television.

Last week, he ordered bonuses for soldiers, sacked the head of the army and dismissed the government in a bid to reassert his authority.

New army chief Gen Honore Nabere Traore said mutineers would meet Mr Compaore.

“The crises are heading toward a solution,” Gen Traore said on public radio, adding that officials had “found adequate responses” to the mutineers’ demands.

in the Guardian, Joshua Rozenberg writes, “Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo is the best asset of those opposed to the international criminal court.”

The Economist has some handy charts on China’s trade with Africa.

What are you reading today?

“Ocampo Six” Return to Kenya

On Thursday and Friday of last week, six Kenyans appeared in front of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has charged these men with fomenting post-election violence in 2007-2008. The legal proceedings will continue for some time, but for now the “Ocampo Six” (so named for the ICC’s chief prosecutor) are back home. One of the first steps two of the suspects, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and suspended minister William Ruto, took yesterday was to headline a rally. The tone of this event contrasted with earlier events, but the rally still underscored how politicized the trial has become in Kenya.

Reuters:

Before attending the ICC hearing, Kenyatta, who is also deputy prime minister, and Ruto had criss-crossed Kenya holding raucous rallies calling for their cases to be held in Kenya. They accused their political rival, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, of implicating them.

The ICC barred the suspects from making “dangerous speeches” to incite violence or they would face arrest. Kenyatta and Ruto took a conciliatory stance in their speeches at the rally, a far cry from their comments before their ICC appearance.

The ICC can take heart from Kenyatta and Ruto’s new tone. But one question that came to my mind was whether the politicization of the trial – or the outcome – could negatively affect Kenya’s 2012 elections, in which Kenyatta may be a leading candidate. Legal proceedings, after all, are not isolated from politics, especially in this case. And Kenya remains divided:

Kenyans thronged to the rally by bus and on foot. Police estimated the crowd at about 35,000.

“If the cases are confirmed and go ahead at The Hague, there could be big problems. Without Uhuru, we won’t have elections,” said a Kenyatta supporter, John Waweru, 30.

Despite the heroes’ welcome from supporters, most of the east African country’s 40 million people backed an ICC hearing, while support for the case to be heard at a local tribunal had dropped since a previous survey in December, according to a poll published last week.

“Tuko Pamoja!” (We are together), said one placard; “Uhuru for president in 2012″ said a slogan emblazoned on the torso of one shirtless supporter who had painted his body white.

The return of Kenyatta and Ruto has already prompted some violence, as NTV Kenya reports:

Kenya: ICC Rejects Delay, Begins Hearings for “Ocampo Six”

Today and tomorrow, Kenya’s “Ocampo Six” will appear in front of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in answer to summons from Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo. These Kenyans – former MPs William Ruto and Henry Kosgey, former police commissioner Mohammed Hussein Ali, radio journalist Joshua Sang, Head of Public Service Francis Muthaura, and Deputy Prime Minister/Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta – stand accused of fomenting violence after Kenya’s contentious 2007 elections.

The affair has produced mixed reactions in Kenya. The ICC’s case against the “Ocampo Six” has displeased Kenyan leaders, who have called for a one-year deferral of the proceedings. The ICC has rejected Kenyan government requests for a special hearing and more time, but the UN Security Council will consider Kenya’s deferral request in its meeting tomorrow.

As it became clear that the initial hearings, at least, would take place, Kenyan leaders spoke out in the press and in public about the case:

The International Criminal Court hearings against Kenyan suspects is “unprecedented and unfortunate,” said Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

“Unprecedented because it has never happened to our citizens before,” Odinga said in an e-mailed statement from the East African nation’s capital, Nairobi, today. “Unfortunate because it is a big statement on the failure of our national institutions. From the ICC, we expect nothing but justice for the victims and a fair process for the suspects.”

In a special address yesterday, Odinga stressed themes of national unity. Odinga’s cautious statements, which are open to multiple interpretations, suggest to me that the hearings are making Kenyan leaders nervous about potential domestic fallout.

At the same time, some indicators show strong support among the Kenyan population for the hearings. Two polls, one conducted in December and the other released this month, say that around 60% of Kenyans want the case to go forward. I take such polls with a grain of salt, but it does seem that many Kenyans back the proceedings. That support potentially leaves Kenyan politicians at odds with some of their consituents.

What happens next? Moreno-Ocampo has laid out different stipulations for different defendants, which Kenya’s Daily Nation outlines here (see also their helpful list of trial participants here). Long story short, the case could take quite a while to resolve.

When I last wrote about Kenya and the ICC in March, it was unclear whether or not the “Ocampo Six” would even show up to the ICC. My suspicion at the time was that they might refuse, and clearly that hasn’t happened. It seems Kenyan government officials are still pinning their hopes on a UNSC-led deferral of the case, but that may not come. The Economist‘s Baobab has said that “the future of humanitarian law and of the ICC as an effective supranational body depends on the Kenyan case.” If so, the ICC has for the time being blocked a major challenge to its authority.

NTV Kenya has a video report on Uhuru Kenyatta, the defendant with the highest political profile:

Africa Blog Roundup: Cote d’Ivoire vs. Libya, Sudan Violence, Nigerian Elections, and More

Jimmy Kainja sees double standards at work in the West’s treatment of Cote d’Ivoire and Libya:

The international response to the crisis [in Libya] underscores the importance of Libya, as a country. America has taken hypocritical step of endorsing the ICC indictment of Gaddafi and his innercircle even though America does not recognise the ICC. Academics with links to the Gaddafis have been forced to resign, under pressure from the Western media; and celebrities that earned money from the Gaddafis have been forced to donate the money to charity. Yet we are not told who sold Gaddafi the weapons he is using to kill his own people, which is arguably the most important piece of the jigsaw.

These double standards show that Libya is not an ordinary country. Libya has the most sought after and increasingly scarce commodity: oil. This is why an equally appalling situation in Cote d’Ivoire where people are being killed and freeing the country in large numbers is playing a second fiddle to Libya. Cote d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa. But then it is simple mathematics: oil is more important and more precious than chocolate and cakes! Lethargic African Union can sort out the Cote d’Ivoire fiasco (the chocolates) while the West will deal with Gaddafi’s “madness” (the oil).

Elizabeth Dickinson doesn’t necessarily disagree:

Once upon a time, the world was supposed to intervene — militarily if necessary — to ensure democratic transition and prevent conflict in the Ivory Coast. These days, the momentum is gone. And in fact, the closer this country comes to civil war, the less interested anyone is at getting involved. I get it; geopolitically, the Ivory Coast doesn’t hold a candle to the Middle East. But how about all of West Africa — all of which is threatened by the current conflict?

Finally, Aaron Bady (I linked this piece yesterday, but it’s relevant here too) offers his take on the international media “silence” on Cote d’Ivoire.

Two pieces on the upcoming Nigerian elections: Monkey Cage gives an overview of the contest and the candidates (h/t Chris Blattman). Carmen McCain analyzes presidential candidate (and outgoing Kano State Governor) Ibrahim Shekarau’s remarks on shari’a law and Kano films.

John Campbell writes about Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki’s moves to delay the ICC’s prosecution of six Kenyans. “The indictments,” Campbell says, “have hurt [Kibaki] politically and have the potential for further scrambling Kenya’s ethnic politics.”

Maggie Fick reports that border violence is harming relations between North and South Sudan.

What are you reading today?

Kenya: Will the “Ocampo Six” Heed the ICC’s Summons?

This week, Kenyan politicians and diplomats worked to convince UN and US leaders to delay the trial of the “Ocampo Six,” six Kenyans whom Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has accused of fomenting electoral violence in 2007-2008. But the ICC has thrown down the gauntlet, summoning the six Kenyans to appear before the Court on April 7. Now the Kenyan government has a choice: will it tell the six (one of whom, Uhuru Kenyatta, stands some chance of becoming Kenya’s next president) to go, or will it defy the Court?

A BBC report on Nairobi’s reaction makes it seem that Kenya will choose the path of defiance:

Kenya says it will challenge the International Criminal Court’s right to try six Kenyans suspected of being behind post-poll violence in 2008.

[...]

In a statement, Kenya’s government said it would also challenge the ICC’s jurisdiction.

The ICC said the Kenyan government should bring the matter before the judges and then they will decide whether to grant the challenge.

The BBC’s Will Ross in Nairobi says now that the reality of the ICC trials is hitting home there has been a late rather panicky effort to save the politicians from going to The Hague with a promise that justice will be pursued locally.

If Kenya allows the six men to refuse the Court’s summons, it will find significant support in Africa. And the example set by Sudan in defying the Court no doubt plays into the Kenyan government’s decision-making process. Given that Sudanese President Omar al Bashir remains free, Kenyan officials may decide that the consequences of resisting the Court are not serious.

Kenya’s Conflict with the ICC Continues

In January, I wrote that the standoff between Kenya and the International Criminal Court over the so-called “Ocampo six” was one of 2011′s top stories to watch in Africa. On December 15 of last year, ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo announced his intention to try six prominent Kenyans on suspicion of fomenting electoral violence in 2007-2008. Since then, the case has caused controversy within Kenya and internationally, raising important issues about the future of Kenyan politics, questions about international justice and African sovereignty, and new tensions in Kenya’s relationship with the US.

The matter of the “Ocampo six” reverberates strongly in Kenyan politics because of the high profile of the targets. They include Higher Education Minister William Ruto (suspended), Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey, Head of the Civil Service Ambassador Francis Muthaura, former Police Commissioner Major General (Rtd) Mohammed Hussein Ali, and KASS FM radio presenter Joshua arap Sang, all of whom are well known in Kenya. Perhaps most importantly, the sixth member of the list is Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Kenya’s first president, Jomo Kenyatta. The younger Kenyatta, who is currently both Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, is a strong candidate to replace current President Mwai Kibaki. The accusations against Kenyatta and the others could affect the 2012 elections in Kenya.

Domestically, the situation has already divided Kenyans. One poll of around 2,000 mobile phone users indicates majority support for the trials among the population, but many elites have reacted to the ICC’s actions with hostility. A week after Ocampo’s announcement, the Kenyan parliament “voted overwhelmingly for the country to pull out of the treaty which created the [ICC].” President Kibaki also sided against the ICC, arguing that Kenya needed local tribunals to deal with the problems stemming from 2008′s violence. These decisions in turn angered some civil society groups.

Internationally, the issue is also making waves. Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka meets this week with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon and with US government officials to urge a deferral of the case by a year. The AU supports Kenya’s request, but international organizations like Human Rights Watch have called on both the AU and the Kenyan government to allow the ICC’s work to continue.

The conflict has deepened feelings among some Kenyans, especially elites, that the ICC represents a new and insidious form of Western domination of Africans. The BBC reports that when the Kenyan parliament voted to leave the ICC,

MPs decried the ICC as a colonial, anti-African court and said that Kenya was surrendering its sovereignty.

“It is only Africans from former colonies who are being tried at the ICC,” Kenya’s Daily Nation paper quotes Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi as saying.

“No American or British will be tried at the ICC and we should not willingly allow ourselves to return to colonialism,” he said.

This feeling has intersected with ongoing tensions in the US-Kenya relationship. These tensions concern punitive measures the US has already taken against Kenyan elites in response to the 2008 violence. Revelations about Kenya in the Wikileaks embassy cable dump exacerbated these tensions, and now Kenya’s Daily Nation is writing about “How Kenya Rejected America’s ICC Plot.” The newspaper sees the US as an aggressive and hypocritical actor aiming to undermine Kenyan sovereignty:

The American government tried for years, without success, to pressure Kenya into signing an agreement to protect Americans who might be wanted by the International Criminal Court.

Documents released by the whistle-blower website WikiLeaks show US frustration that Kenya resisted all types of inducements, arm-twisting and threats to sign the so-called Article 98 agreement.

That is a bilateral agreement by which Kenya would undertake not to hand over to The Hague any American citizen sought for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide, mass murder or other crimes of that nature.

Ironically, the US is now at the forefront in pressing the government to accede to ICC trials for key officials facing possible indictment for the post-election violence.

The US is itself not a party to the ICC and has over the past six years waged a worldwide campaign to protect its military forces and civilians from jurisdiction of the international court.

The pressure applied by the US included visa bans against ministers and other officials, cutbacks in military cooperation and development aid; and travel warnings that adversely affected the flow of American tourists to Kenya by depicting the country as unsafe because of terrorism threats.

The ICC issue includes more parties than just the US and Kenya, but it could affect that relationship more than any other.

A final thought is that if Uhuru Kenyatta becomes the next president of Kenya (and my speculation that he might win comes from a knowledgeable Kenyan acquaintance, not from hard data, so take this with a grain of salt), the ICC’s credibility may slip further in Africa. If in 2012 there are two African heads of state (Kenyatta and Sudanese President Omar al Bashir) who refuse the ICC’s summons, the Court may end up looking ineffectual. The stakes, then, in Kenya’s battle with the ICC are high on both sides.