Africa News Roundup: Sudan-South Sudan Talks, Al Shabab, the UNSC and Mali, and More

First in the roundup, there’s a lot of news coming out of Sudan and South Sudan now:

• President Omar al Bashir of Sudan and President Salva Kiir of South Sudan are set to meet tomorrow in Addis Ababa.
• Reuters: “Former civil war foes Sudan and South Sudan have told mediators that they are ready to end one of Africa’s longest conflicts this weekend, but behind the diplomacy their relationship is one of enduring mistrust and enmity. With an army of advisors and experts pressuring both sides, the leaders of the neighboring nations may feel compelled to reach a limited agreement in Addis Ababa to end hostilities, for now, after coming close to war in April.”
• The African Union is applying pressure on the two sides to reach an agreement, and the US, the UK, and Norway have issued a joint statement also calling for an agreement.
• Sudanese authorities denied protesters permission to stage another demonstration over an anti-Islamic film yesterday.

The Atlantic: “How Al Shabab Lost Control of Somalia”

The UN Security Council issued a press release yesterday on the situation in Mali.

The members of the Security Council take note of the Interim Malian Government’s request for assistance to ECOWAS.  They further take note of the ongoing strategic planning efforts of ECOWAS and stress the need for ECOWAS to coordinate with the Interim Government of Mali, the African Union, other Sahel countries, bilateral partners and international organizations, including the European Union, with the support of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, in order to prepare detailed options regarding the objectives, means and modalities of the deployment of a regional force in Mali.  They express their readiness to consider a feasible and actionable proposal from ECOWAS addressing such a request from the Interim Malian Government.

In Nigeria, state governors are taking the Federal Government to court over the country’s sovereign wealth fund. “The operation of the fund by the federal government violates a constitutional provision that all government revenue must be shared among that states and the center, the governors said in a joint statement.”

Reuters on Niger’s 2013 budget.

What else is happening?

Ethiopia: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s Illness and Potential Political Changes in the Greater Horn

When Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi missed an African Union summit this past weekend, rumors spread that he was ill. News agencies reported yesterday that Meles was in “critical condition” in Brussels. By late in the day the Ethiopian government had announced that Meles was “in good condition.” Under Article 75 of the 1994 Ethiopian constitution (.pdf), Deputy Prime Minister (and Minister of Foreign Affairs) Haile-Mariam Desalegne will act on the Prime Minister’s behalf in his absence.

Meles, a former rebel leader who took power in 1991, has previously stated his desire to step down when his current term ends in 2015. If Meles leaves office, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front will almost certainly retain power, but Meles’ absence would represent a significant political change for Ethiopia.

Indeed, Meles’ illness potentially foreshadows a coming period of political change (specifically the installation of new heads of state) for several countries in the greater Horn of Africa. Change could occur in several ways.

First, there is retirement. Meles is not the only leader in the region who has said he will step down in 2015 – Sudanese President Omar al Bashir made the same promise during a small wave of protests in early 2011, and Djibouti’s President Ismael Guellah has stated that he will step down in 2016. Some observers have doubted the sincerity of these pledges, but Meles in particular sometimes seems fatigued and ready to give up the job, an appearance that this illness underscores.

Elections will bring changes in leadership elsewhere in the region. Many observers expect Somalia’s ongoing political transition, which includes presidential elections next month, to produce a government fairly similar in personnel to the current Transitional Federal Government. But in Kenya, presidential elections set to take place in 2013 must produce a new head of state. President Mwai Kibaki, who has reached the limit of two five-year terms, cannot run again, leaving the field open to a number of major politicians, including current Prime Minister Raila Odinga and current Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

Other transitions, as Meles’ case reminds us, could come about because of sudden illness or death, a grim possibility but one that must be mentioned. These leaders are not old: indeed, all of them (not counting Kibaki) are short of seventy – Meles was born in 1955, Bashir in 1944, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir in 1951, Somalia’s President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in 1964, Eritrea’s President Isaias Afewerki in 1946, Djibouti’s President Ismail Guellah in 1947, and Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni around 1944. Yet four of them have been in power for over nineteen years (Museveni came to power in 1986, Bashir in 1989, Meles in 1991, and Isaias in 1993). The high stress of being head of state seems to accelerate aging in some leaders. There remain only six African leaders who have been in office longer than Museveni.

Finally, no leader in the region has faced a monumental threat from mass protests, but significant anti-regime protests have occurred in the last two years in Sudan, Uganda, and Djibouti. If nothing else, such protests add to the pressures these heads of state face in other areas.

It is possible, of course, that in three or four years only Kenya, out of all the countries in the greater Horn, will have new leadership. But a combination of factors could produce transitions in Ethiopia, Sudan, Djibouti, and elsewhere, potentially shaking up, within a relatively short period of time, what has long been a fairly stable roster of leaders.

North and South Sudan Take a Step Toward (Some) Peace

This weekend Southern Sudanese President Salva Kiir met with his counterpart, President Omar al Bashir of Sudan, in Khartoum. Although the problems between the two Sudans are far from over, this visit hopefully marks a step toward a resolution of major issues. This resolution may be flawed, but hopefully it will be one that both sides can live with.

The two largest issues dividing the two sides are how to share revenues from oil and how to demarcate the border. The border issue is especially complex: a number of areas are disputed, most famously the territory of Abyei, whose referendum on whether to join the North or the South has been indefinitely postponed (currently it lies within the North). Although coming up with a formula for oil sharing and resolving Abyei’s status might be enough to conclude the major disputes between the two sides, the question of the border areas is also significant because of the violence going on in several Northern states that lie on the new border. Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan States are home to thousands of people who fought for or sympathize with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the governing party in the South. Even though such areas are not part of the new South Sudan, Southern leaders are keen to see violence end there. So long as it continues there will be serious tensions between South Sudan and Sudan.

Sudan Tribune provides details of the framework agreed upon in Khartoum:

Sudan and South Sudan have setup five task-forces to trash out issues of economy and border security among others…

The five committees include bilateral relations, economy, higher education, humanitarian affairs and border security.

Sudan’s minister of finance and national economy, Ali Mahmud, said that the two sides had agreed on five points in the fields of economic cooperation and banking exchange as well as on establishing a joint administration to manage oil facilities and promoting cross-border trade.

VOA and AFP have more.

The next step will be a meeting in Juba on October 18, which is quite soon.

There are reasons for pessimism – talks could fall through, issues could remain intractable, implementation could falter, and violence in the border regions could worsen, bringing tensions to new highs – but the personal involvement of Bashir and Kiir, combined with the genesis of this new framework, suggests that the two sides are serious about reaching a solution. As I said above, I do not think all the disputes will be ironed out, and some level of violence in the border areas may continue to keep relations problematic, but if resolution on revenues-sharing and Abyei comes, the two countries will be able to move forward.

Regarding Abyei, I think (North Sudan) will likely hold onto it. Their de facto control of the area gives them a huge advantage, though they may have to give Juba some big concessions to keep it.

South Sudan Continues to Look Toward the Future

Despite the uncertainty that surrounds an upcoming referendum on South Sudanese independence, South Sudan continues to prepare for statehood. The referendum will only be the beginning for the new nation.

South Sudan Landscape by sidelife

Reuters:

More than 20 southern Sudanese political parties have agreed to hold a fresh census, new elections and rewrite the constitution if the south secedes as expected in less than three months.

The five-day conference in the southern capital Juba also agreed a broad-based, post-secession interim government would be headed by South Sudan President Salva Kiir until new elections.

South Sudan is also training 6,500 police cadets in anticipation of the referendum and what comes after:

They are being taught to perform crowd control, secure polling stations and other skills they will need for the planned January 9 referendum that is expected to see south Sudan vote to secede from the north. They are also ready to handle public disturbances, keep the peace and deal with crime.

In a sense, this activity is nothing new. As commenter Lee (Roving Bandit) said in September, “South Sudan has been a defacto independent country for at least the last 5 years anyway, and will continue to be autonomous even in the event of unity.” Still, independence would/will bring new complications and considerations for South Sudan, domestically, regionally, and internationally. Conducting a census, holding elections, re-writing the constitution, expanding the police force, and boosting their military will not be easy tasks. The current round of preparations could be an effective start at tackling some of those priorities.

Col. Qaddhafi and South Sudan’s Relations with Africa

Colonel Muammar Qaddhafi (will the transcriptions of his name ever become uniform?) recently caused controversy by suggesting that South Sudan’s imminent independence could destabilize the rest of Africa.

On Sunday, Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir criticised Southern Sudan’s leader Salva Kiir for saying he would vote for independence and warned of the possibility of renewed conflict.

He was speaking at an Arab-African summit League in the Libyan town of Sirte.

Libya’s leader told the same meeting that a vote for independence “could become a contagious disease that affects the whole of Africa”, with various ethnic and linguistic groups also demanding independence.

“We must recognise that this event is dangerous,” Col Gaddafi said.

…

Southern Sudan Information Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin told the BBC that Africa had not broken up when Eritrea gained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993.

This exchange got me wondering again what South Sudan’s post-independence relations might look like. A friendly Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda, a hostile North Sudan? What else? I guess much depends on how the vote goes down and how relations between North and South take shape in the months immediately after the referendum.

Sudan Sets Referendum Timetable, Violence Fears Continue

Yesterday the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission released a timetable to guide the preparations surrounding the scheduled January 9 referendum on southern independence. Having concrete dates and numbers, however, has not completely relieved observers who fear the possibility of violence.

To look at the preparations in detail, registration will run from November 14 to December 4. Other key dates include December 7, when campaigning begins, and December 31, when “the definitive electoral register is to be completed.” Here’s a look at the logistics:

Voter registration material is being printed in South Africa, while ballot papers will also be printed outside Sudan with security devices fitted to prevent fraud, Reec added.

Polling will take place across Sudan but only those able to prove they come from the south will be eligible to vote.

Voting will also take place in eight other countries — neighbouring Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Egypt, as well as in Australia, Britain, the United States and Canada.

In those countries, the intergovernmental International Organisation for Migration (IOM) will assist the registration process, Reec said.

The current schedule reflects a large delay that came down late last month. With preparations running behind schedule, “The BBC’s Peter Martell in the southern capital, Juba, says the timing for the referendum…is extremely tight.” Commissioners promise the vote will take place on time or after a very brief delay, but Southern Sudanese President Salva Kiir has warned that violence may follow any delay. Meanwhile, “progress has been slow in settling a number of issues leading up to” a separate but related referendum in the border region of Abyei. Northern and Southern Sudanese officials are meeting with US mediators in Ethiopia this week to address the situation in Abyei, but they are behind schedule as well.

Small wonder, then, that US and UN envoys are worried about the situation in Sudan. A look at the helpful numbers sheet compiled at the Christian Science Monitor reminds us of the many different moving parts in this system, and the multiple pressures and problems surrounding the referendum.

Al Jazeera English also has a useful video (now a few days old) on the preparations for the referendum:

Violent Rhetoric in Sudan

A return to civil war in Sudan would be a tragic outcome for the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005. But with tensions high over the upcoming referendum on Southern independence, we hear violent rhetoric even from the top.

Reuters:

Sudan risks “violence on a massive scale” if there is any delay to a planned January referendums that will likely split the oil-rich African nation in two, South Sudan’s leader said on Friday.

South Sudan President Salva Kiir said it increasingly appeared that “unity is not an option” following the January 9 vote, which will cap a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of civil war in the country.

“At the moment all signs point to the fact that on January 9, 2011 Southern Sudanese people will vote overwhelmingly for their own independence,” Kiir told an audience in Washington.

“There is without question a real risk of a return to violence on a massive scale if the referenda do not go ahead as scheduled,” he said.

Can US policy prevent bloodshed in Sudan? President Obama will make a major statement at a UN summit on Sudan that will take place this Friday, and many will be carefully observing what he says and does. Policy changes are in the works:

This past week, the Obama administration announced a package of incentives for Sudan, including normalized relations, if Khartoum chooses peace. [US Special Envoy Scott] Gration said there would also be consequences if Sudan turns to war, but he didn’t detail what those would be.

[...]

The new incentive package immediately loosens restrictions on agricultural equipment and would lift non-oil-related sanctions on Sudan if the vote takes place on time. Sudan would get debt relief, the lifting of more sanctions, and the restoration of full diplomatic ties if it supports the outcome of the vote, and resolves the conflict in Darfur.

[...]

[An anonymous State Department official] noted that Khartoum is already facing the prospect of losing a third of its territory and up to 80 percent of its oil revenue if the south breaks away, so there is little that additional US threats would accomplish.

Asked after a press briefing last week if his policy is all carrot and no stick Gration said: “We have a policy that gives the north a pathway to better bilateral relations. If they don’t take it, that’s already a stick.’’

Three and a half months till the referendum.

On Southern Sudan

France 24 English has an informative segment about the current situation in Southern Sudan, featuring interviews with military and civilian elites as well as with ordinary people. This and other pieces have called attention to the challenges South Sudan will (likely) face as an independent country.

Sudan: Bashir, Kiir Win Re-Election

AJE:

Al-Bashir had been widely expected to retain the presidency after a number of opposition parties withdrew their candidates, but the official announcement of the results on Monday confirmed his victory with 68 per cent of the vote.

“The first [was] Omar Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir. He was the candidate and won,” Abel Alier, the chairman of Sudan’s National Elections Commission, said.

Al Jazeera’s Mohammed Adow, reporting from the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, said al-Bashir addressed the nation following the announcement to thank his supporters.

“He has been saying that he will serve all Sudanese whether they voted for him or not,” our correspondent said.

The election commission also announced that Salva Kiir, the leader of the former rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), won re-election in the presidential poll in Sudan’s semi-autonomous southern region.

Kiir, a former rebel commander, won 92.9 per cent of the 2,616,613 votes in the South, Alier, the commission chairman, said.

No surprises here. I should have a brief analysis up tomorrow. In the meantime, I’m eager to hear readers’ reactions.

Sudan Elections Roundup

Lots of coverage of Sudan as the country enters day two of voting:

• Reuters describes “chaos”: “Confusion soon erupted on Sunday as centre after centre, sometimes hours into the voting, discovered that voters were using the wrong ballot papers or that names or symbols of candidates were either missing or incorrect.”
• The BBC has pictures, and also comments on logistical problems with voting: “While the process generally went well in the capital Khartoum, voters faced obstacles in several states from the Red Sea in the north to the far south. The dominant party in the south is calling for a four-day extension.”
• VOA quotes David Caroll of the Carter Center’s monitoring team, who says voting was peaceful and also says, “Sudanese generally are looking interested in the voting process. I think it is fair to see some variability around the country. We don’t have all of the reports from our observer team, but in many places we saw good turnout.  We saw people waiting in lines to vote. But in many instances, we saw shortages of material or ballots or voter lists being delivered to the wrong stations.” Read about the Center’s preparations for the monitoring effort here.
• Christian Science Monitor talks about “a taste of democracy” for the Sudanese: “With nearly 100,000 soldiers deployed across northern Sudan to keep security, and police kept on high alert, the first day passed without significant violence. And for those who voted Sunday, the experience was an affirmation that normal citizens, on paper, do have power over their leaders, and thus they have a say in their own and their country’s future.”
• The Majlis gives a nice overview of the opening of the elections.
• Al Jazeera English blogger Hoda Abdel-Hamid says the SPLM felt it was a “wasted day” in terms of voting in the South. Her fellow AJE blogger Fatma Naib gives a view from Khartoum, noting the absence of youth voters and the presence of observers from the Organization of the Islamic Conference. These on the ground perspectives are invaluable.
• The New York Times gives another view from Khartoum, reporting substantial support for President Omar al-Bashir.
• Coverage of Bashir and South Sudanese President Salva Kiir voting.
• Save Darfur and Rob Crilly have good roundups.

Given all this coverage, I’m going to wait until voting ends to offer my own analysis. But I’ll probably do another roundup tomorrow as well, and contribute in the comments with any links you’d like me to include. I leave you with an AJE video: