Yesterday fighting broke out in Jau, a region claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan. The armies of the two nations clashed directly, unlike in some other border conflicts where the North army has faced off against local militias:
South Sudan’s military spokesman, Philip Aguer, said the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) bombarded the Jau area with warplanes and used artillery to hit positions of the south’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA).
“The SPLA is trying to repulse the attackers, the Sudan Armed Forces,” he told Reuters. “The first attack was on Saturday when SAF started invading … It is in South Sudan, there is no dispute about that. Jau is deep in South Sudan.”
Al-Sawarmi Khalid, spokesman for Sudan’s military, confirmed the clashes, but said Jau was in Sudanese territory. “Now the Sudanese army controls the Jau area, which is inside the Republic of Sudan,” he said.
“South Sudan’s army tried to attack six times today. This is an assault on the Sudanese army and Sudanese land.”
The crisis has spilled into the diplomatic arena as well:
Sudan and South Sudan on Thursday staked rival claims to a disputed border region at the UN Security Council after new clashes which have heightened fears of broader conflict between the rivals.
Ambassadors for Sudan and South Sudan both said that Jau, which the north’s troops attacked last week, was part of their territory.
My sense of things is that the two countries are still hoping to avoid a full-blown war, but direct conflict between the two armies is already a form of war, and could easily escalate.
Here is a map showing Jau’s location.
Turning to the issue of the new cabinet in Khartoum, despite the ruling National Congress Party’s professed goal of greater inclusiveness, most news analyses say that key ministries remain in the regime’s hands. The opposition Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) did join the cabinet, and both the DUP and the National Umma Party (NUP), another key opposition party in the North, have recently dispatched some of their leaders to serve as advisers to President Omar al Bashir. But the NUP and others are saying that the new cabinet will not alleviate Sudan’s internal tensions, and an NUP spokesman said that Sudan remains “on a path to the Arab Spring. People are dissatisfied because of poverty, hunger and the decline of the economy, health and education.”
Sudan Tribune has a breakdown of the cabinet appointments, and Akhir Lahza provides a list in Arabic.
I think it remains a strong possibility that the uncertainty over the border will eventually result in a full-fledged war between the two countries. The failure of Eritrea and Ethiopia to properly demarcate their border prior to Eritrea’s independence was, in retrospect, a catastrophic mistake. Eritrea and Ethiopia had far less reasons to go to war than the two Sudans do now.
Really? At a glance the four states seem to have similar situations.
As for Sudan, Bashir probably needs to something to reinforce his position. His nation just lost close to half of its former territory, the Darfur issue won’t go away and could cost Sudan a large amount of its current territory, talks on oil sharing with South Sudan seem to be stumbling and of course there’s the economic situation. So far Sudan doesn’t seem to be having a revolution but there’s nothing stopping the elites from deciding that they want someone else in power.
That map is wrong. Jau is not outside South Sudan. It is inside the map, trust me!
Well if it’s in Unity then it should be in South Sudan.