Bayan Zaben Gwamna 18 ga Watan March…Nigeria Elections Diary: A View from Kano on the Gubernatorial Elections by Mallam Usman Aliyu (in Hausa)

Earlier this month, I posted Mallam Usman Aliyu’s Hausa-language Nigeria elections diary (a work I commissioned for this blog). Below is Mallam Usman’s follow-up, treating the gubernatorial elections held on March 18 in 28 of Nigeria’s 36 states. One major noteworthy result of the gubernatorial election was the decisive victory in Kano by the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), headed by former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. Mallam Usman discusses the dynamics in Kano, noting in particular the collapse of the People’s Democracy Party (PDP) there, and gives a detailed account of how voting unfolded, including citizens’ close scrutiny of the collation process.

BAYAN ZABEN GWAMNA 18 GA WATAN MARCH

A Ranar Asabar 18 ga watan March 2023 aka gabatar da babban zaben Gwamnoni a Jihar Kano dama kasa baki daya.

Alhamdulillah anyi zabe lafiya kamar yadda akayi ta addu’a duk da an samu matsaloli a wasu gurare kadan amma abin farin cikin shine ba’a samu asarar rayuka ba saidai an fasa akwatin zabe a gurare wasu guraren kuma an samu aringizon kuri’a (over voting) wanda hakan yasa aka soke zaben wasu akwatuna yayinda kuma wasu kananun hukumomi za’a sake zabe sakamakon kuri’un da aka soke yawansu ya huce na tazarar da aka samu tsakanin wanda yayi nasara da kuma wanda ya biyo baya.

Tabbas zaben 2023 ya kafa wani tarihi ko ace yazo da wani salo na musamman da ba’a taba ganinsu a zabukan da suka huce ba. Misali fitowar da mutane sukayi wannan zabe musamman mata adadin mutanen da suka kada kuri’a a wannan zabe yafi adadin wanda suka kada kuri’a a zaben shugaban kasa da sanata, duk da anyi barazana sosai da kuma hasashen za’a iya samun tashin-tashina a wannan zabe amma cikin hukuncin Ubangiji da kuma addu’o’i komai yazo da sauki. Salon da wannan zabe yazo dashi shine Jam’iya mai mulki tayi amfani da wasu abubuwa domin bawa masu zabe su zabesu kamar Atampa, Shadda, Taliya, Omo da sauransu abin mamakin shine daga farkon zabe wannan abubuwa da suke rabawa sunyi tasiri matuka domin mutane da yawa sun zabesu saboda dalilin wannan abubuwa da suke bayarwa yayinda wasu kuma suna karba amma sai su zabi wanda sukeso, masu dabara a ciki kuma sai suke amfani da idan kinaso ko kanaso idan layi yazo kanka zasu Hada ka da agent dinsu ka zaba a gabansu sannan idan ka fito su baka wata takarda mai kamar pass sannan su fadamaka inda zakaje ka karbi kayanka.

Daga fara zabe zuwa wajen 11 na rana akwatuna da dama jam’iya mai mulki ce akan gaba ciki harda akwatin da nayi zabe amma daga lokacin da jama’a suka fahimci kayan da ake rabawa fa sun kare sai labari yasha ban-ban sai kowa ya koma yana zabar raayinsa wanda hakan ya bawa jam’iya adawa damar lashe zabe a kaso 80 cikin 100 na akwatunan Birnin Kano da kewaye.

Babban abin mamaki da kuma daukar hankali a wannan zaben shine yadda Alumma bayan sunyi zabe basu tafi gidajensu ba suka tsare kuri’arsu kuma suka raka akwatunansu har Collation Centre, na fara mamaki tun daga lokacin da ake raba Ma’aikatan zabe zuwa guraren da zasuyi aiki domin karfe 3 na dare amma jama’ar gari ne suke tsare da maaikatan zabe wasu a machine wasu a mota wasu ma a kafa. Dan motar da yawancin maaikatan suka hau zuwa voting centres domin kada kuria babu jami’in tsaro a ciki haka mutanen gari suka raka su kuma suka jira aka raba har akwatin da zamuyi zabe yayinda da yawa daga cikin masu zabe a akwatuna suka rike kayan aiki tare da basu abunda zasu karya kafin a fara aiki.

An samu nasara sosai a wannan zaben wajen fara zabe da wuri ba kamar zaben daya gabata ba domin karfe 7:25 yawancin maaikatan suka isa inda akwatunsu yake saida 8:30 tayi sannan suka fara aiki hakan ya bada nasarar gama zabe da wuri a gurare da dama duk da jama’a sun fito da yawa fiye da zaben daya gabata amma wasu guraren karfe 12, wasu 1 sun kammala zabensu, hukumar shirya zabe ta INEC tayi kokari matuka wajen fara komai akan lokaci kuma ta tsara komai na aikin zabe, sannan matsalolin da aka samu da na’urar tantancewa (BVAS) a zaben daya gabata ko kadan ba’a sameta a wannan zaben ba, sannan korafin da agents sukayi a zaben daya gabata na rashin dora sakamakon zabe a website na INEC wannan zaben kowane akwati saida aka dora zaben immediately bayan kammalawa hakan yasa mutane suka fara ganin sakamakon zabe tun kafin tafiya tayi nisa, wannan dalilai sukasa mutane da dama kama daga ma’aikatan zabe zuwa alummar gari suke ganin ba’a taba yin sahihin zabe a Nigeria kamar wannan zabe na Ranar 18 ga Watan March, an samu tsaro sosai wanda haka yayi maganin masu yunkurin tada hankali a guraren zabe.

Kananun jam’iyu sun bada mamaki ciki harda jam’iyar data lashe wannan zabe ta NNPP kasancewar sabuwar jam’iya ce da batafi watanni 8 ba amma tayi nasarar lashe zabe a jahar da ake ganin itace kan gaba wajen yawan alumma a Arewaci dama kasa baki daya, hakan yasa siyasar wannan lokaci ta dauki wani yanayi da kuma salo na musamman da ba’a saba ganinsa a zaben da suka huce ba. Tarihi ya nuna Margayi Abubakar Rimi ne kadai ya taba daukko sabuwar jam’iyar da bata dade kuma ba’a santa ba tayi nasara a Jihar Kano sai wannan karon da Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ma ya kafa wannan tarihin.

Sannan ba’a taba zaben da hankalin Jama’a gaba daya yana kansa ba kamar wannan zaben mutane da dama sun bada gudummawa ta fanni daban daban ciki harda wanda basuda wata alaka da yan takarar da suka shiga wannan zabe, nasan mutane da dama wanda sukayi amfani da abun hawansu wajen daukar mutane su kaisu guraren da zasuyi zabe musamman wanda aka canjawa akwati aka kaisu wani waje mai nisa, sannan da yawa mutane maza da mata basuyi cikakken bacci ba tun daga ranar da akayi zabe zuwa ranar da aka sanar kowa ka gani kansa yana kan waya yana dubawa ko kuma kunnensa yana radio yana saurarar sakamakon zabe, Tabbas soyayyar da jama’ar gari suka nunawa Jam’iyar data lashe a yanzu ba karamar soyayya bace.

A ranar Litinin 20 ga watan March aka sanar da sakamakon zabe na Jihar Kano inda sakamakon manyan yan takara guda 5 ya fito:1. Abba Kabir Yusuf NNPP ya samu kuri’a 1,019,6022. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna APC ya samu kuri’a 809,7053. Sadiq Aminu Wali PDP ya samu kuri’a 159,574. Mal Ibrahim Khalil ADC ya samu kuri’a 12,8325. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada ADP ya samu kuri’a 9,402. Abin mamaki a wannan zabe shine yadda Jam’iyar PDP ta kasa kai bantanta duk da kasancewarta babba jam’iya a kasa baki daya amma a duka zabukan da aka gudanar. Jam’iya PDP bata samu koda Dan Majalissar Jaha guda daya ba sai ma kokarin da sabuwar Jam’iyar ADC (Mal Ibrahim Khalil) yayi wajen kamo jam’iyar PDP a wannan zabe, a fili ya nuna Jam’iyar PDP batada wani tagomashi a jahar Kano kuma tabbas suna bukatar daukar matakai matukar suna bukatar farfado da martabar jam’iyarsu. Daga ranar da aka sanar da wannan sakamako har zuwa jiya Laraba Alummar gari murna suke suna celebration yayinda wasu suka fara tattaki daga inda suke zuwa Kano a kafa domin nuna soyayyarsu ga wanda ya lashe wannan zabe saidai an jiyo shi wanda ya lashe wannan zabe yana garesu da suyi hakuri su koma gida sakamakon rashin tsaro da kuma sace-sacen mutane da ake fama dashi bugu da kari kuma ga shigowar azumi ya bukaci duk masoyinsa da yayi masa adduar nasara wajen gudanar da mulkinsa. A washe garin ranar da aka fadi Sakamako ranar Talata kenan Jam’iya mai mulki ta hada wani taron manema labarai domin sanar da jama’a matsayarsu akan wannan zabe inda mai girma mataimakin Gwamna kuma dan Takarar Gwamna ya tabbatar da cewa basu yarda da wannan zaben ba har yayi ikirarin yakamata yayi ace wannan zabe ya zama Inconclusive tare da tabbatar da zasuyi zanga zanga a ranar Laraba kuma zasu shiga kotu domin neman hakkinsu, saidai fa jama’a sonata tofa albarkacin bakinsu akan wannan Magana inda mutane suke cewa ashe kiran Kaddarar da yakeyi a lokacin neman zabensa ba gaskiya bane domin kuwa ya fadi wasu kalmomi guda 2 wanda ya kasa cika koda 1 daga ciki, 1. Yace idan mulkin Kano ba alkhairi bane a gareshi Allah karya bashir gashi Allah bai bashi ba amma gashi kamar bai yarda ba. 2. Ya fada a gaban jama’a a taron BBC cewar duk wanda Allah ya bawa wannan kujera zasu mara masa baya kuma su bashi shawarwari na gari ba tare da cin dunduniya ba amma shima gashi ya gaza cika maganarsa. A jiya laraba dai suka gabatar da Zanga Zangar neman hakkinsu ga hukumar INEC yayinda hakan ya zama abin dariya a garesu.Wannan zabe ya kafa wasu tarihi guda biyu a wannan shekara1. A duk jahohin Nigeria babu dan Takarar Gwamnan daya samu Kuri’a Million Daya sai a Kano kuma a karkashin sabuwar Jam’iyar NNPP.2. A tarihin Nigeria gaba daya wannan ne karo na farko da tsagin gwamnati sukayi zanga zanga akan neman hakkinsu.

From the DRC, A Serious Warning for and about Aid Workers Elsewhere

The New Humanitarian last month published the results of their investigation, conducted jointly with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, into a ghastly story involving international aid workers pressuring Congolese women for sex:

In interviews, 51 women – many of whose accounts were backed up by aid agency drivers and local NGO workers – recounted multiple incidents of abuse during the 2018 to 2020 Ebola crisis, mainly by men who said they were international workers.

The majority of the women said numerous men had either propositioned them, forced them to have sex in exchange for a job, or terminated their contracts when they refused.

The organizations named in interviews are huge ones: “UNICEF, Oxfam, Médecins Sans Frontières, World Vision, ALIMA, and the International Organization for Migration.” The New Humanitarian’s writeup also

The scandal (I am searching for a stronger word, actually – “outrage” comes to mind) reminds me, as it may remind you, of a sexual abuse scandal uncovered (and arguably very poorly handled) involving United Nations Peacekeepers in the Central African Republic.

The implications for the region this blog covers, the Sahel and Nigeria, should be clear. I talk about jihadism a lot here at the blog, and one way this post could go would be to spin out the implications of this for the counter-jihadism fight and the perceptions of humanitarian workers in conflict zones. But I think that line of argument – while perhaps valid – might be too securitized for my taste (“don’t exploit women, it hurts the counterterrorism fight” is a crude and even offensive argument).

Rather, what I want to really emphasize is that incidents where trust is broken can leave long, long memories. In 1996, Pfizer was accused of killing 11 children and disabling others in Kano, Nigeria through a meningitis drug trial. The aftermath of the incident included widespread suspicion about polio vaccination campaigns in subsequent years. Pfizer paid compensation ($175,000 each to four families) in 2011. People often remember the harm caused by those who came (purportedly) to help. And as seen with the Kano example, one actor’s choices can affect myriad other actors carrying out seemingly unrelated projects.

I guess if someone is so depraved that they would attempt to coerce women living through a public health emergency, then they probably wouldn’t be receptive to these warnings about unanticipated consequences of abuse. But their bosses are a different story. The problems described in the DRC seem systemic, and organizations and supervisors clearly have some real soul-searching to do, if they have the courage to do it:

Aid sector experts blamed the failures on a male-dominated operation with little funding to combat sexual abuse; income and power inequalities that opened the door to abuses; and poor communication with local residents – mirroring problems they said they had seen in numerous other emergency responses.

I hope the branches of these organizations that work in the Sahel and Nigeria are paying attention and are scrutinizing their own accountability mechanisms. There are ongoing investigations – I hope they are substantive.

The Sharif-Aminu Blasphemy Case in Kano, Nigeria: Some Context

On August 10, an upper sharia court in Nigeria’s Kano State handed down a death sentence for a singer named Yahaya Sharif-Aminu, who was convicted of insulting the Prophet Muhammad in one of his songs. Kano is the most populous state in northern Nigeria and one of the states where a version of “full sharia” (including penalties for what are considered criminal offenses in most interpretations of Islamic law) has been on the books since the turn of the millennium.

Here is a bit of context:

• Sharif-Aminu belongs to the Tijaniyya Sufi order, one of the most popular Sufi orders in northern Nigeria and across much of North Africa, West Africa, and the greater Sahelian band (and internationally). Within the Tijaniyya, he belongs to what is sometimes called the Niassene Tijaniyya or Tijaniyya Ibrahimiyya after a Senegalese shaykh named Ibrahim Niasse (1900-1975), who played a pivotal role in spreading and reviving the Tijaniyya from Senegal to Sudan. Sharif-Aminu’s song reportedly (I have not heard it) stated or implied that Ibrahim Niasse was greater than the Prophet Muhammad, a sentiment that violates a core tenet of Islam, namely that the Prophet Muhammad was the ultimate human being.
• It is very important, however, for Western journalists or others not to conflate Sharif-Aminu’s (purported) comments with the Tijaniyya as a whole.
  • First, other representatives of the Tijaniyya are already taking pains to distance themselves from Sharif-Aminu, even to the extent of saying (Hausa) they find the death sentence justified.
  • Second, there has been a millennium and more of efforts by Sufi intellectuals and ordinary Sufis to make the argument that Islamic law and Sufi spirituality are not just compatible but mutually reinforcing. Most members of the Tijaniyya, even as they consider figures like Niasse (or the order’s founder, Ahmad al-Tijani, who died in 1815) to be exceptional human beings, would never suggest that any person was greater than the Prophet Muhammad. Indeed, there is a long tradition of Sufi literature – including specifically West African Sufi literature – praising the Prophet Muhammad, as a new book by Oludamini Ogunnaike documents.
  • Third, there is a long history of tensions between Sufis and anti-Sufis, or we could say between Sufis and Salafis, in northern Nigeria and in other parts of Africa and in other parts of the Muslim world. I think it is crucial for journalists and Western academics not to take sides within those conflicts – and it is very easy to inadvertently adopt the anti-Sufi/pro-Salafi position by using phrases like “the Sufis say X, while the Sunnis say Y” or by creating binaries such as “Sufism versus orthodoxy.” Observers need to keep in mind that most Sufis consider themselves (a) Sunnis and (b) orthodox. And bluntly speaking, your average journalist or commentator is not really qualified to decide who represents “orthodoxy” within Islam and, moreover, I don’t think it’s appropriate in a journalistic (or Western academic) context to make that call in the first place. Meanwhile some Salafis will be eager, amid this case, to make the equation “Sharif-Aminu=Tijaniyya=Sufism,” and that’s a problematic equation to make, to say the least.
• In my view there are patterns to how cases of alleged blasphemy have tended to play out in recent years: authorities, even in Muslim-majority societies, tend to be very quick to give death sentences and very slow to carry them out. The Sharif-Aminu case has deep similarities to a previous case in Kano, and indeed directly builds on that case because the exact same core issues are at play. Notably, the death sentence pronounced in that previous case has also not yet been carried out. By responding quickly, authorities can react to and shape local pressures; by delaying actual executions, they can allow international outcry to fade.
• The popular mobilizations demanding the death penalty in such cases are worth examining closely – they raise questions that I’ve never been able to fully explore to my own satisfaction, whether in the Nigerian context, the Mauritanian context, or elsewhere. To wit: Are such mobilizations spontaneous and bottom-up, or are they shaped by elites? If so, by which elites, and for which motives?
• The role of Kano’s Hisbah Board and its Commander, Dr. Harun Sani Ibn Sina, will be worth following closely in all this. The Hisbah is a sharia-related moral enforcement body whose role has evolved in complex ways since its creation in the early 2000s in Kano (there are Hisbah Boards in some other states as well, but Kano’s is the most sophisticated and powerful). As Commander, Ibn Sina is relatively new in his role, having taken over from longtime Commander Aminu Daurawa in 2019 after the re-election of current Kano Governor Abdullahi Ganduje. Ibn Sina is reportedly very close to Ganduje, but other than that I don’t know much about him. Daurawa was/is one of Kano’s leading Salafis, but when I asked a friend in Kano who is very knowledgeable about the religious scene, he said that Ibn Sina* has no obvious affiliation to the Salafis or to any other specific constituency. I will see what I can find in the coming days. In any case the Hisbah Board can function as a focal point for mediating between the top political authorities and “the street” (or segments of it) when it comes to issues involving Islam in Kano.
• The protesters who mobilized against Sharif-Aminu do not necessarily speak for all Muslims in Kano. There is a sizable Christian minority in the city and the state, and moreover the Muslim population is diverse, with a substantial presence of Sufis (and note that there are multiple orders as well as prominent leaders within each order), Salafis, and a notable Shi’i minority. Again, the vast majority will recoil from any perceived insult to the Prophet Muhammad, but it does not automatically follow from that that they want Sharif-Aminu to die – some will see him as a wayward boy (he is reportedly just 22 years old, an age often considered to be still a boy in northern Nigerian society).

We will see how this plays out. Again, I would be surprised if Sharif-Aminu is executed any time soon.

*It is possible that Ibn Sina is a nickname referencing the medieval philosopher (d. 1037), but I’d be a bit surprised if that were the case, actually.

Post at The Maydan on a Power Struggle in Kano, Nigeria

Over at George Mason University’s The Maydan, I have a post exploring the power struggle between the Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, and the state’s governor, Abdullahi Ganduje. The post also asks how hereditary or “traditional” Muslim authority is evolving.

Nigeria: Developments in Gubernatorial Contests in Osun, Kano, and Borno

Nigeria is in full-blown election mode in advance of the 16 February* 2019 presidential vote. Some of the most consequential political developments are taking place in the states. Here we look at three states: Osun, in the southwest, where a contentious gubernatorial election result is raising questions about ruling party interference and electoral officials’ biases; and two key northern states, Kano and Borno, where gubernatorial primaries are approaching.

Osun

Last week I wrote about the off-cycle gubernatorial election in Osun, which I believe is the last major election before the presidential vote. In Osun, incumbent governor (and member of the ruling All Progressives Congress or APC) Rauf Aregbesola is stepping down due to term limits, and so the race is between his chief of staff Gboyega Oyetola and Osun West Senator Ademola Adeleke. The latter represents the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which ruled Nigeria from 1999-2015.

Osun’s election took place on 22 September, but problems occurred at seven polling units. The election was re-run at those units on 27 September, and the returns from those units changed the overall outcome. After the 22 September results, the PDP’s Adeleke had a lead of 353 votes; after the 27 September results were added to the tallies, the APC’s Oyetola had a lead of some 482 votes and was declared the winner.

The close margin, and the reversal in the party’s fortunes, has led to outcry and concern not just from the PDP, but also from other observers. The Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room released a statement critical of the process and questioning the integrity of the final result. The Centre for Democracy and Development in West Africa’s statement similarly concluded (see second tweet in thread) “that the conduct of some key stakeholders clearly ran contrary to democratic norms & standards, as well as best practices in the conduct of credible elections.”

And here is part of the joint statement from the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States:

In contrast to our overall findings on the vote of September 22, we were concerned to witness widespread incidents of interference and intimidation of voters, journalists, and civil society observers by some political party supporters and security agencies.  Many of our findings mirror those of leading civil society groups that observed the election.

We commend the work of INEC leadership during both elections. But it is clear that the neutrality of the security services and responsible conduct by party agents, both inside and outside polling units, will be essential to ensure free, fair, credible and peaceful elections in 2019.

For both the APC and the Independent National Electoral Commission, then, there is skepticism in the air about their ability to conduct a successful and open process in February.

Kano

Back in August, I took a look at party shifts and realignments in Kano, the most populous state in northern Nigeria. Four prominent personalities are fighting for influence over the upcoming gubernatorial election. Most gubernatorial votes will take place (or are scheduled for) 2 March 2019. So here are the major players in Kano:

• Former Governor (and current Senator) Rabiu Kwankwaso (served 1999-2003, 2011-2015)
• Former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau (served 2003-2011)
• Current Governor Abdullahi Ganduje (took office 2015)
• Ex-Deputy Governor (as of August) Hafiz Abubakar (in office 2015-2018)

The latest big news is that Kwankwaso is backing Abba Yusuf to win the PDP gubernatorial nomination. Nigerian media (corporate and social) has been buzzing with the news that Yusuf is Kwankwaso’s son-in-law, although Kwankwaso himself has sought to correct (or spin?) the perception of nepotism by arguing that Yusuf is not married to one of his daughters but rather to someone from his extended family.

Kwankwaso also reportedly sought to arrange a game of musical chairs that would place Yusuf in the governor’s seat while placing Abubakar and long-time Shekarau ally Salihu Takai (who has, however, so far not followed Shekarau’s lead in defecting to the APC after Kwankwaso defected to the PDP)** into Senate seats. Here is a paraphrase of what Kwankwaso said about the proposal he made to Abubakar and Takai:

He also explained his reasons for not anointing the former Kano deputy governor, Prof Hafiz Abubakar, and a prominent politician in the state Alhaji Sagir Takai. He said he had known Prof Hafiz for over 40 years and has assisted him wherever necessary. The Prof was asked to contest for the Kano Central senate seat, a seat currently occupied by Sen Kwankwaso, in the coming 2019 election but he showed no interest. Likewise Sagir Takai had also been asked to contest for the seat of the southern Kano senatorial zone but had also declined to the arrangement, Sen Kwankwaso explained.

Within the PDP, then, you have a major contest for the nomination brewing – and then the nominee will face off against Ganduje, who remains in the APC and remains governor. Part of Kwankwaso’s ambition, of course, is to win the PDP nomination for the presidency and then bring Kano into his column in the general election.

Borno

Borno is the largest state in Nigeria by landmass and is the epicenter of the Boko Haram crisis. Incumbent Governor Kashim Shettima of the APC is term-limited and will likely seek the Borno Central Senate seat. As in other states, outgoing governors can wield tremendous influence in picking a successor (Shettima himself was hand-picked in 2011 by then-outgoing Governor Ali Modu Sheriff after Sheriff’s initial pick, Modu Gubio, was assassinated, likely by Boko Haram).

The big news out of Borno, then, is that Shettima has endorsed Babagana Zulum for the APC nomination. Zulum is a professor and the former state commissioner for reconstruction, rehabilitation and resettlement. (Here, if you are interested, are micro-bios of the other candidates.)

In Shettima’s endorsement statement, he focused on how Zulum’s professional experience will be crucial for Borno as it focuses on post-conflict reconstruction. But other parts of the statement allude, cryptically, to intra-party conflicts:

We cannot pretend not to be aware that an otherwise leader in our party, the APC, has deliberately created an unnecessary division within its membership in the state. This has led, to borrow from the satirical wisdom of Distinguished Senator Mohammed Ali Ndume, the existence of what is akin to a match between “home based players” in the majority and with local support and a minority “foreign based players”. Four months ago, when we received some fleeing leaders back into the APC fold, I had thought that those who choose to work against the majority have learned lessons. I had expected us to once again, fuse into one indivisible family so that together, we could give our party a direction and confront our opponents as a united force. How wrong I was! Perhaps, I ignored the common saying, that a leopard does not change its spots.

This is, of course, a reference to Shettima’s difficult relationship with Sheriff, who rejoined the APC in a May 2018 “peace deal” with Shettima. Since then, however, political conflict between the two has flared up again.

There is also a hint, in Shettima’s endorsement statement, that Zulum is something of a consensus candidate:

Of our 21 aspirants, if I were to support and hand pick what some people might call any of my closest boys as successor; I most certainly would go for Barrister Kaka Shehu Lawan or Adamu Lawan Zaufanjimba. If, on the other hand, public service is the only consideration, none of the aspirants can be more qualified than our elder statesman, Ambassador Baba Ahmed Jidda. If loyalty to political association is my main consideration, Distinguished Senator Abubakar Kyari has proved unalloyed loyalty to political association with me. If years of sincere and mutual friendship are my main consideration, Distinguished Senator Baba Kaka Bashir Garbai and Alhaji Mai Sheriff are my closest friends amongst all our aspirants. If the consideration is about humility and ability to carry people along, His Excellency Shettima Yuguda Dibal is legendary. I have relationship and so much respect for majority of the aspirants, the likes of Hon. Umara Kumalia, Makinta, name them. In fact, two of the aspirants, Mustapha Fannarambe and Umar Alkali are my relatives. All aspirants have divergent qualities. However, because of the situation we found ourselves, considerations for the next Governor of Borno State requires specific quips tailored to our needs for now.

Perhaps I am too cynical, but it also seems to me that Zulum may be a somewhat technocratic choice who lacks a constituency of his own and therefore may be seen as pliable by Shettima and his team. But I welcome readers’ thoughts and corrections on this point in particular.

So there you have it – three crucial states, one of whose governorships has been held for the APC in a potentially ugly way (Osun), one of whose governorships is increasingly contested (Kano), and one whose governorships may pass smoothly from incumbent to successor (Borno). In any case, these remain three states to watch, especially in terms of how gubernatorial politics interact with presidential politics in the lead-up to 2019.

*Delays are always possible, although the constitution requires that the next presidential term start by 29 May 2019.

**No one said this was easy to follow!

Nigeria’s Decamping Wave and Preparations for 2019: Spotlight on Kano

In Nigeria, a wave of “decamping” is occurring as politicians switch parties. I’ve written a little about it here and here, as have Matt Page and Lagun Akinloye. All of the party switches have national implications, but in this post I’d like to zoom in on some of the dynamics in one key state: Kano, the most populous state in northern Nigeria and the second-most populous state in the country as a whole. Kano’s decampings give a sense of just how complicated all this has become, and also point to some of the key actors who will shape the outcome in the state in the 2019 elections. Kano is probably a must-win state for incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari – if he loses in Kano, that might spell trouble elsewhere for him in the north, and if he starts to lose pieces of the north then his whole map falls apart.

To begin describing Kano State politics, we can point to two former governors: Rabiu Kwankwaso (served 1999-2003 and 2011-2015) and Ibrahim Shekarau (served 2003-2011). A long narrative on their rivalry can be found here. Both men have decamped in the past, but at the time of the 2015 elections Kwankwaso was in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Shekarau was in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). In 2015, the APC won the presidency and the PDP, Nigeria’s long-time ruling party, lost. In 2015, the APC also won the governorship of Kano, with Kwankwaso’s Deputy Governor Abdullahi Ganduje defeating Shekarau’s ally Salihu Takai. Kwankwaso himself moved to the Nigerian Senate, representing the Kano Central senatorial district.

This summer, Kwankwaso became part of a larger group of Senators, governors, and other politicians who left the APC to return to the PDP, the party to which many of them previously belonged. Some of these defections, and particularly Kwankwaso’s, reflect presidential aspirations. Kwankwaso has been seriously discussed as a major presidential contender since at least the 2015 cycle, so his aspirations are far from delusional.

Back in Kano, Kwankwaso’s decamping raises a few important questions. Is there room for both him and Shekarau in the PDP? Perhaps. And what about Ganduje, who will face re-election in 2019? So far, Ganduje is remaining in the APC, although his own deputy governor, Hafiz Abubakar, has already resigned (h/t Matt Page), and may well defect to the PDP. Does Kwankwaso have the upper hand over Ganduje? Or does the outcome of 2019 in Kano come down to which two of the state’s three past and present governors (Kwankwaso, Shekarau, Ganduje) align against the third, given “rumours that Kwankwaso and Ganduje are struggling to win the heart of Shekarau”? And what does any of this mean for Takai, already being floated unofficially (Hausa) as a candidate? Don’t think that having lost a few elections (2011 to Kwankwaso, 2015 to Ganduje) counts someone out – just ask Buhari, for whom the fourth time was the charm.

Far be it from me to say what all this means. But it’s interesting to watch the consequential knock-on effects of national politicians’ decisions and decampings as they reverberate down through the political system, compelling deputy governors, state legislators, and other figures to make their own decisions. The wave of decampings, then, is throwing into relief the various networks and rivalries that make up Nigerian politics. The struggles within the states also highlight that perennial feature of politics, particularly in systems with term limits – the “godfathers,” no matter how formidable they may be, never have complete control over their hand-picked successors, and the resulting rivalries can have major consequences for party unity.

 

A Case of Alleged Blasphemy in Kano, Nigeria

Around May 15, a Muslim preacher named Abdul Nyass gave a controversial sermon in Kano, the most populous city in northern Nigeria. Nyass belongs to the Tijaniyya Sufi order. He allegedly stated that Shaykh Ibrahim Niasse (1900-1975), a Senegalese Muslim who revived and popularized the Tijaniyya across West Africa in the mid-twentieth century, was greater than the Prophet Muhammad. The remarks were made at a celebration of Ibrahim Niasse’s birthday. The incident set off an extended and ongoing intra-Muslim controversy in Kano.

Here is a timeline of events:

• Circa May 15: Abdul Nyass’ alleged sermon glorifying Ibrahim Niasse over the Prophet. Conflict breaks out and Nyass, together with some of his followers, is arrested.
• May 20: Two major Nigerian leaders of the Tijaniyya, Shaykhs Dahiru Usman Bauchi and Isyaku Rabiu, dissociate themselves and the Tijaniyya from Abdul Nyass and his statements.
• May 22: “Thousands of youth” burn down the court in the Rijiyar Lemo neighborhood of Kano where Abdul Nyass and his followers are set to appear; other youth burn down Nyass’ house in Kano; other youths attempt to storm Government House and Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II’s palace.
• May 29: Inauguration of Kano State’s new governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje
• June 25: The Upper Shari’a Court in Kano sentences Abdul Nyass and eight of his followers to death for blasphemy; four others were acquitted.
• June 29: Governor Ganduje announces his support for the court’s verdict.

Some context and reflections:

• Kano is a significant site of inter-religious and intra-Muslim disputes. Such incidents do not happen on a monthly or even yearly basis, but this case is not the first: one example of Muslim-Christian conflict is the October 1991 riot that occurred in response to plans for a visit to Kano by the controversial Christian preacher Reinhard Bonnke, and one example of intra-Muslim conflict is the 2007 arson at Freedom Radio station.
• The Tijaniyya is one of the largest Sufi orders in the world and one of the most important Muslim constituencies in Nigeria as a whole and Kano in particular. Emir Ado Bayero (1930-2014, ruled 1963-2014) belonged to the Tijaniyya, as did several Emirs before him. The order as a whole is mainstream in the Nigerian context. If Abdul Nyass did utter the remarks attributed to him, that would make him a fringe voice in the order. Many of his opponents have referred to his group as “yan hakika” (people of the truth, i.e. people who aspire to reach a mystical state), a Tijaniyya offshoot with some fringe beliefs. The mainstream Tijaniyya leaders are taking the case very seriously. Shaykh Dahiru Usman Bauchi essentially called Abdul Nyass an unbeliever (Hausa), and took pains to say that Tijanis are mainstream Muslims.
• Even though the Tijaniyya as a whole is mainstream, there is a long history in Nigeria of opposition to the order, particularly among high-placed scholars. Shaykh Abubakar Gumi (1924-1992), who was Grand Qadi of Northern Nigeria (an administrative unit at the time of colonialism and decolonization) from 1962-1967, authored a harshly anti-Tijani book in 1972. Critics of the Tijaniyya have long accused the order of elevating its own texts and leaders over the central texts and leaders of Islam. The blasphemy case this year, then, activates long-standing suspicions of the Tijaniyya among some Nigerian Muslims, particularly Salafis.
• Given this anti-Tijani precedent, the current case may allow some public officeholders to impose their views about what constitutes Islamic orthodoxy. For example, a major figure in this case is the Salafi leader Shaykh Aminu Daurawa, head of Kano’s Hisba, a governmental law enforcement body charged with upholding public Islamic morality. Daurawa has commented frequently on the case, including in terms that go beyond Abdul Nyass himself. In one Facebook post (Hausa), Daurawa wrote, “This is the truth of the [Sufi] order. There is a need to get rid of all [Sufi] orders, because the Prophet (Peace and Blessings Upon Him) is being insulted among them.” One important question about the case, then, is whether it and its aftermath will further empower the opponents of Sufism in Kano.
• Many analysts in the West have come to believe Sufis are good and their opponents are bad. It’s never that simple. To my mind the analyst should neither caricature Sufis nor demonize their opponents. I don’t see this case as a sign of some “creeping radicalization” in northern Nigeria: I see it as the latest incident in a long-running intra-Muslim struggle to define doctrine and practice in Kano.
• The case is also important because it will test the limits of what punishments shari’a courts can impose. As AFP writes, since the new shari’a penal codes were implemented starting in 1999, shari’a courts have sentenced various people to death – “but to date, no executions have been carried out.” Federal authorities may pressure Kano’s authorities to overturn the sentences. However, given that both Kano’s new Governor Ganduje and Nigeria’s new President Muhammadu Buhari are very new to their offices, they may decide to either drag their feet or even let the sentences stand. The sensitivity of the questions involved (blasphemy, intra-Muslim relations, public order, etc.), combined with the overall tense atmosphere (including because of Boko Haram’s violence), puts both state and federal authorities in a tricky position. That makes this case one to watch.

Nigeria’s State Elections Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Nigeria will hold state elections. Although the victory of Muhammadu Buhari in the presidential vote of March 28-29 has rightly attracted major attention, it is important not to forget about the state contests, which will have a significant impact on the lives of Nigerian citizens – recall that the populations of some Nigerian states (Lagos, Kano) exceed the populations of many entire African countries.

I’ll mention two pieces I’ve written that hopefully shed some light on state-level dynamics. My backgrounder (.pdf) on the elections, written for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discusses Lagos, Kano, Plateau, and Rivers (pp. 12-15). A follow-up post for the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog discusses Lagos, Kano, and Rivers. Both pieces were written before the six-week electoral delay announced in February, but I think much of the analysis still applies. At a basic level, the most important thing to highlight is that many of Nigeria’s governors are term-limited, so the races in many states are open and will produce new officeholders.

To narrow down my list of key states even further, I will be watching Lagos and Rivers the most carefully. Lagos is a stronghold of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Buhari’s party, and both the outgoing governor and his predecessor are major APC figures. I would be surprised if the APC, in the person of its nominee Akinwunmi Ambode, does not hold the state. Yet the race in Lagos recently had a moment of tension when the Oba of Lagos, a ceremonial hereditary ruler, reportedly made threatening comments regarding any Igbos who might not vote for the APC candidate (the Oba later denied the threat). Lagos is a historically Yoruba area, and Ambode (as well as many other APC leaders in southwestern Nigeria, and the Oba too for that matter) are Yoruba. Ambode distanced himself from the Oba’s comments. The Yoruba and the Igbo are, respectively, the second and third largest ethnic groups in Nigeria. The point is this: just as Buhari is now expected to negotiate a politics of inclusivity as Nigeria’s incoming president, the victor in Lagos will face pressure to show inclusivity in a mega-city populated heavily by immigrants.

Rivers currently has an APC governor, Rotimi Amaechi, who defected from the People’s Democratic Party or PDP, the party of outgoing President Goodluck Jonathan, in 2013. Amaechi is term-limited, and the gubernatorial election will in some sense represent a contest of wills and resources between Amaechi and Jonathan’s wife Patience, who is also from Rivers. There is significant potential for violence in Rivers. During the presidential vote, Rivers was the site of protests by the APC, which alleged that the PDP had committed massive fraud. Electoral authorities, however, accepted the result from Rivers, which like the rest of the South South and South East zones voted overwhelmingly for Jonathan according to official results. The APC has asked for the removal of the Resident Electoral Commissioner in Rivers, charging that she will not administer the gubernatorial election there fairly. Rivers heads into the weekend, in other words, facing considerable tension.

Which states are you watching?

Boko Haram’s Assassination Attempt on the Emir of Kano

The term “traditional” can be misleading. When talking about northern Nigeria, I prefer to say “hereditary Muslim rulers.” So I’ll say that hereditary Muslim rulers have substantial religious, political, economic, social, and cultural importance in many parts of northern Nigeria. These rulers, including the Sultan of Sokoto, the Shehu of Bornu, emirs, and other figures, trace the origins of their offices to two pre-colonial Islamic empires in present-day northern Nigeria and its environs: the Empire of Sokoto and the Empire of Kanem-Bornu. From the Sokoto side, in addition to the Sultan of Sokoto himself, the Emir of Kano, Al Hajj Ado Bayero, is one of the most important figures. He took office in 1963, making him one of the longest-serving rulers today (he is 82 years old). The assassination attempt against him on January 19, in which six people died, has caused considerable consternation, and has already led authorities to increase security measures in Kano State and elsewhere.

To condense a lot of history into a few quick sentences, the rulers from the Sokoto side came to power after the jihad of Shaykh Uthman dan Fodio started in 1804. Kano was under Sokoto’s control during the nineteenth century but this does not mean that Sokoto could always impose its will there – for example, Kano fought a civil war in the 1890s to resist an unpopular candidate for the Emirate installed by Sokoto (see a brief account here, p. xii). British colonial officials in northern Nigeria from approximately 1900 to 1960 left hereditary Muslim rulers in office. But the British had complicated relationships with these rulers, relationships that could involve coercion and manipulation as well as strategic cooperation. In the postcolonial period, hereditary Muslim rulers have retained significant influence in politics and society. But critics of the emirate class from the independence era to the present have accused hereditary rulers of blocking progress and drawing too close to politicians. Since at least the Boko Haram uprising of 2009, some critics have also charged that hereditary rulers have not been forceful enough in speaking and acting against radicalism and violence. Despite criticism, however, hereditary rulers retain tremendous prestige among some of their constituents; when Boko Haram attacked Kano in January 2012, many people were deeply moved by the Emir’s public grief.

The Boko Haram sect originated in northeastern Nigeria and its epicenter to some extent remains Borno State. That area was part of Kanem-Bornu before the colonial era. But Boko Haram’s westward spread has brought it into areas that were part of Sokoto, including Kano.

When Boko Haram began its campaign of guerrilla-style attacks in 2010, I initially felt that its attitude toward the hereditary rulers was ambivalent. The incident that gave me that sense was a prison break in September 2010 when Boko Haram fighters spared the life of the Emir of Bauchi, even though they had an opportunity to kill him. With various assassination attempts against emirs and their relatives from 2010 to 2013,* however, it seems that hereditary rulers are now at least tertiary targets for Boko Haram (I say tertiary because there have been many more attacks on security personnel and Christian sites). It is also possible, as with other forms of violence, that the insecurity and uncertainty created by Boko Haram’s attacks has given space to violent opportunists who are not necessarily affiliated with Boko Haram. Nigerian officials have stated, however, that they arrested Boko Haram fighters, at least one of whom who confessed to the attempt against the Emir.

Assuming Boko Haram is behind the attack, what would motivate them to kill a hereditary ruler? I can think of two main reasons. First, they may view the emirs as part of the political establishment that they seek to destroy; in the Salafi milieu from which Boko Haram emerged, harsh criticisms circulate painting the hereditary rulers as allies of politicians and opponents of Salafis. Second, they may target emirs for their symbolic importance; the attack on the Emir of Kano may have been timed to coincide with the first anniversary of last January’s mass attack in the city. If terrorism in one sense aims at spectacle, killing the Emir near the anniversary would have been a shocking piece of political symbolism.

What effects will this incident have? Already, it has spurred a ban on commercial motorbikes in Kano (the likely reasoning being that Boko Haram frequently makes use of motorbikes in its attacks). Daura Emirate in neighboring Katsina State has cancelled public celebrations connected with the Mawlud (anniversary of the Prophet Muhammad’s birthday). This is not the first time such celebrations have been cancelled or abridged in recent months. Politicians, the Sultan of Sokoto, and other Muslim leaders are calling for investigations and increased security measures; the Christian Association of Nigeria also condemned the attack. I imagine we will see hereditary Muslim rulers being even more cautious than before about how and whether they appear in public.

In terms of what this incident says about the position of hereditary rulers in the north, perhaps it is possible to see this as a sign of their vulnerability and their prestige all at once, even in ways that are contradictory. In the fall, after an assassination attempt on the Emir of Fika, the commentator Shehu Salisu argued, “All over the North, the inbred respect for ward and district heads, as well as emirs, is fast diminishing and, consequently, the authority and the myths behind the traditional institutions they head. For those who feared the institutions, a new boldness is in place; for those who had high regards for them, a subtle disdain has emerged and for members of the ruling clans, the rewards of being part of the royal classes are fast ebbing.” I think is some powerful evidence for this point of view. But there is also evidence that people hold hereditary rulers in high esteem. Even Boko Haram’s choice of the Emir of Kano as a target says something about the symbolic importance of his office.

I think that neither the hereditary rulers’ decline nor the maintenance of their current prestige is inevitable. Rather it seems to me that they stand at a crossroads, and that it will be for the younger ones among them – including the Sultan of Sokoto, who is relatively young at 56, and the next Emir of Kano, whoever he may be** – to make some difficult and fateful decisions about their roles in politics and society. The challenges posed to their authority by the fragmentation of the religious landscape in the north, and by Boko Haram as one manifestation of that fragmentation, are quite formidable. But these hereditary institutions have proven highly flexible over time, and their occupants have frequently been quite adept at navigating social and political change. I would not, in other words, count the emirs and the Sultan out quite yet.

*In my list of attacks on emirs last week, I missed two alleged assassination attempts/plots against the Emir of Kano – one in 2010 and one in 2011.

**Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and a grand-nephew of the current Emir, is often mentioned as a potential successor, but he will face rivals.

Nigeria: Major Crackdown on Boko Haram in Yobe and Adamawa States

Mosque in Damaturu, by Jeremy Weate

Last week, Nigerian security forces in Kano and Maiduguri killed at least four suspected high-ranking members of the Boko Haram sect and arrested two others. That tally includes the group’s infamous spokesman Abu Qaqa, who has been reported dead before. This week, security forces have mounted crackdowns on Boko Haram in Yobe and Adamawa States. While clashes between security forces and sect members are frequent, these crackdowns have been significant for their scale.
AFP on the crackdown in Yobe:

“The Joint Task Force has succeeded in killing 35 Boko Haram terrorists in shootouts between Sunday evening through Monday,” said Lieutenant Lazarus Eli, a military spokesman in Yobe state, of which Damaturu is the capital.

A round-the-clock curfew was imposed in the city late Saturday, ahead of the operation that also led to the arrest of 60 suspected Boko Haram members.

The curfew has been relaxed and residents are now allowed out of their homes from 7:00 am to 10:00 pm (0600 GMT to 2100), Eli said. The ban on movements in Yobe’s economic capital of Potiskum has also been eased.

Military forces went door-to-door through three Damaturu neighbourhoods beginning late Sunday and engaged militants in “a fierce exchange of gunfire” through to the early hours of Monday morning, the spokesman added in a statement.

Two soldiers were injured in the fighting.

[…]

A list of weapons that Eli said were recovered from Boko Haram hideouts included dozens of guns, explosive devices and hundreds of rounds of ammunition as well 32 arrows and two swords, among other items.

PM News on the crackdown in Mubi, Adamawa:

“In the three-day operation, the town was placed under 24-hour curfew, which enabled soldiers to comb the nooks and corners,” said Lieutenant Saleh Mohammed Buba, military spokesman in Adamawa.
“A total of 156 suspects were rounded up in raids of suspected (Boko Haram) hideouts. A sect commander known as Abubakar Yola who went by the alias Abu Jihad was shot dead in a shootout while trying to flee,” he added.
The detained suspected gunmen would soon be produced in court, Buba said.
[…]
The spokesman said about 300 explosive devices were discovered in what he described as an armory used by the sect, where about two dozen AK-47 guns were also being stored.

These crackdowns follow Boko Haram’s attacks on cell phone towers earlier this month. A suicide bombing at a church in Bauchi State on Sunday is believed to be the group’s work.

The crackdowns, along with the arrests and shootings of sect commanders, certainly put pressure on Boko Haram. Their success in disrupting the group’s activities will have to be judged over time, though. For one thing, militant groups and terrorist movements are often able to replace slain commanders with relative ease – the headline “Al Qaeda No. 3 Killed” has been written so many times that it has become a joke in some quarters. Second, the massive crackdown on Boko Haram in 2009 did succeed in driving Boko Haram underground for months, but it also seems to have fueled the group’s grievances against the state, especially security forces.

Force will undoubtedly be part of the state’s response to Boko Haram. What matters is how force gets used. To the extent that security forces can target known sect members while avoiding harming and harassing civilians, and can pair forceful tactics with sophisticated strategies for answering the political challenge the sect poses, the crackdowns may help resolve the problem of Boko Haram. If not, then crackdowns risk becoming just another element of a cycle of violence.