Bayan Zaben Gwamna 18 ga Watan March…Nigeria Elections Diary: A View from Kano on the Gubernatorial Elections by Mallam Usman Aliyu (in Hausa)

Earlier this month, I posted Mallam Usman Aliyu’s Hausa-language Nigeria elections diary (a work I commissioned for this blog). Below is Mallam Usman’s follow-up, treating the gubernatorial elections held on March 18 in 28 of Nigeria’s 36 states. One major noteworthy result of the gubernatorial election was the decisive victory in Kano by the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), headed by former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. Mallam Usman discusses the dynamics in Kano, noting in particular the collapse of the People’s Democracy Party (PDP) there, and gives a detailed account of how voting unfolded, including citizens’ close scrutiny of the collation process.

BAYAN ZABEN GWAMNA 18 GA WATAN MARCH

A Ranar Asabar 18 ga watan March 2023 aka gabatar da babban zaben Gwamnoni a Jihar Kano dama kasa baki daya.

Alhamdulillah anyi zabe lafiya kamar yadda akayi ta addu’a duk da an samu matsaloli a wasu gurare kadan amma abin farin cikin shine ba’a samu asarar rayuka ba saidai an fasa akwatin zabe a gurare wasu guraren kuma an samu aringizon kuri’a (over voting) wanda hakan yasa aka soke zaben wasu akwatuna yayinda kuma wasu kananun hukumomi za’a sake zabe sakamakon kuri’un da aka soke yawansu ya huce na tazarar da aka samu tsakanin wanda yayi nasara da kuma wanda ya biyo baya.

Tabbas zaben 2023 ya kafa wani tarihi ko ace yazo da wani salo na musamman da ba’a taba ganinsu a zabukan da suka huce ba. Misali fitowar da mutane sukayi wannan zabe musamman mata adadin mutanen da suka kada kuri’a a wannan zabe yafi adadin wanda suka kada kuri’a a zaben shugaban kasa da sanata, duk da anyi barazana sosai da kuma hasashen za’a iya samun tashin-tashina a wannan zabe amma cikin hukuncin Ubangiji da kuma addu’o’i komai yazo da sauki. Salon da wannan zabe yazo dashi shine Jam’iya mai mulki tayi amfani da wasu abubuwa domin bawa masu zabe su zabesu kamar Atampa, Shadda, Taliya, Omo da sauransu abin mamakin shine daga farkon zabe wannan abubuwa da suke rabawa sunyi tasiri matuka domin mutane da yawa sun zabesu saboda dalilin wannan abubuwa da suke bayarwa yayinda wasu kuma suna karba amma sai su zabi wanda sukeso, masu dabara a ciki kuma sai suke amfani da idan kinaso ko kanaso idan layi yazo kanka zasu Hada ka da agent dinsu ka zaba a gabansu sannan idan ka fito su baka wata takarda mai kamar pass sannan su fadamaka inda zakaje ka karbi kayanka.

Daga fara zabe zuwa wajen 11 na rana akwatuna da dama jam’iya mai mulki ce akan gaba ciki harda akwatin da nayi zabe amma daga lokacin da jama’a suka fahimci kayan da ake rabawa fa sun kare sai labari yasha ban-ban sai kowa ya koma yana zabar raayinsa wanda hakan ya bawa jam’iya adawa damar lashe zabe a kaso 80 cikin 100 na akwatunan Birnin Kano da kewaye.

Babban abin mamaki da kuma daukar hankali a wannan zaben shine yadda Alumma bayan sunyi zabe basu tafi gidajensu ba suka tsare kuri’arsu kuma suka raka akwatunansu har Collation Centre, na fara mamaki tun daga lokacin da ake raba Ma’aikatan zabe zuwa guraren da zasuyi aiki domin karfe 3 na dare amma jama’ar gari ne suke tsare da maaikatan zabe wasu a machine wasu a mota wasu ma a kafa. Dan motar da yawancin maaikatan suka hau zuwa voting centres domin kada kuria babu jami’in tsaro a ciki haka mutanen gari suka raka su kuma suka jira aka raba har akwatin da zamuyi zabe yayinda da yawa daga cikin masu zabe a akwatuna suka rike kayan aiki tare da basu abunda zasu karya kafin a fara aiki.

An samu nasara sosai a wannan zaben wajen fara zabe da wuri ba kamar zaben daya gabata ba domin karfe 7:25 yawancin maaikatan suka isa inda akwatunsu yake saida 8:30 tayi sannan suka fara aiki hakan ya bada nasarar gama zabe da wuri a gurare da dama duk da jama’a sun fito da yawa fiye da zaben daya gabata amma wasu guraren karfe 12, wasu 1 sun kammala zabensu, hukumar shirya zabe ta INEC tayi kokari matuka wajen fara komai akan lokaci kuma ta tsara komai na aikin zabe, sannan matsalolin da aka samu da na’urar tantancewa (BVAS) a zaben daya gabata ko kadan ba’a sameta a wannan zaben ba, sannan korafin da agents sukayi a zaben daya gabata na rashin dora sakamakon zabe a website na INEC wannan zaben kowane akwati saida aka dora zaben immediately bayan kammalawa hakan yasa mutane suka fara ganin sakamakon zabe tun kafin tafiya tayi nisa, wannan dalilai sukasa mutane da dama kama daga ma’aikatan zabe zuwa alummar gari suke ganin ba’a taba yin sahihin zabe a Nigeria kamar wannan zabe na Ranar 18 ga Watan March, an samu tsaro sosai wanda haka yayi maganin masu yunkurin tada hankali a guraren zabe.

Kananun jam’iyu sun bada mamaki ciki harda jam’iyar data lashe wannan zabe ta NNPP kasancewar sabuwar jam’iya ce da batafi watanni 8 ba amma tayi nasarar lashe zabe a jahar da ake ganin itace kan gaba wajen yawan alumma a Arewaci dama kasa baki daya, hakan yasa siyasar wannan lokaci ta dauki wani yanayi da kuma salo na musamman da ba’a saba ganinsa a zaben da suka huce ba. Tarihi ya nuna Margayi Abubakar Rimi ne kadai ya taba daukko sabuwar jam’iyar da bata dade kuma ba’a santa ba tayi nasara a Jihar Kano sai wannan karon da Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ma ya kafa wannan tarihin.

Sannan ba’a taba zaben da hankalin Jama’a gaba daya yana kansa ba kamar wannan zaben mutane da dama sun bada gudummawa ta fanni daban daban ciki harda wanda basuda wata alaka da yan takarar da suka shiga wannan zabe, nasan mutane da dama wanda sukayi amfani da abun hawansu wajen daukar mutane su kaisu guraren da zasuyi zabe musamman wanda aka canjawa akwati aka kaisu wani waje mai nisa, sannan da yawa mutane maza da mata basuyi cikakken bacci ba tun daga ranar da akayi zabe zuwa ranar da aka sanar kowa ka gani kansa yana kan waya yana dubawa ko kuma kunnensa yana radio yana saurarar sakamakon zabe, Tabbas soyayyar da jama’ar gari suka nunawa Jam’iyar data lashe a yanzu ba karamar soyayya bace.

A ranar Litinin 20 ga watan March aka sanar da sakamakon zabe na Jihar Kano inda sakamakon manyan yan takara guda 5 ya fito:1. Abba Kabir Yusuf NNPP ya samu kuri’a 1,019,6022. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna APC ya samu kuri’a 809,7053. Sadiq Aminu Wali PDP ya samu kuri’a 159,574. Mal Ibrahim Khalil ADC ya samu kuri’a 12,8325. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada ADP ya samu kuri’a 9,402. Abin mamaki a wannan zabe shine yadda Jam’iyar PDP ta kasa kai bantanta duk da kasancewarta babba jam’iya a kasa baki daya amma a duka zabukan da aka gudanar. Jam’iya PDP bata samu koda Dan Majalissar Jaha guda daya ba sai ma kokarin da sabuwar Jam’iyar ADC (Mal Ibrahim Khalil) yayi wajen kamo jam’iyar PDP a wannan zabe, a fili ya nuna Jam’iyar PDP batada wani tagomashi a jahar Kano kuma tabbas suna bukatar daukar matakai matukar suna bukatar farfado da martabar jam’iyarsu. Daga ranar da aka sanar da wannan sakamako har zuwa jiya Laraba Alummar gari murna suke suna celebration yayinda wasu suka fara tattaki daga inda suke zuwa Kano a kafa domin nuna soyayyarsu ga wanda ya lashe wannan zabe saidai an jiyo shi wanda ya lashe wannan zabe yana garesu da suyi hakuri su koma gida sakamakon rashin tsaro da kuma sace-sacen mutane da ake fama dashi bugu da kari kuma ga shigowar azumi ya bukaci duk masoyinsa da yayi masa adduar nasara wajen gudanar da mulkinsa. A washe garin ranar da aka fadi Sakamako ranar Talata kenan Jam’iya mai mulki ta hada wani taron manema labarai domin sanar da jama’a matsayarsu akan wannan zabe inda mai girma mataimakin Gwamna kuma dan Takarar Gwamna ya tabbatar da cewa basu yarda da wannan zaben ba har yayi ikirarin yakamata yayi ace wannan zabe ya zama Inconclusive tare da tabbatar da zasuyi zanga zanga a ranar Laraba kuma zasu shiga kotu domin neman hakkinsu, saidai fa jama’a sonata tofa albarkacin bakinsu akan wannan Magana inda mutane suke cewa ashe kiran Kaddarar da yakeyi a lokacin neman zabensa ba gaskiya bane domin kuwa ya fadi wasu kalmomi guda 2 wanda ya kasa cika koda 1 daga ciki, 1. Yace idan mulkin Kano ba alkhairi bane a gareshi Allah karya bashir gashi Allah bai bashi ba amma gashi kamar bai yarda ba. 2. Ya fada a gaban jama’a a taron BBC cewar duk wanda Allah ya bawa wannan kujera zasu mara masa baya kuma su bashi shawarwari na gari ba tare da cin dunduniya ba amma shima gashi ya gaza cika maganarsa. A jiya laraba dai suka gabatar da Zanga Zangar neman hakkinsu ga hukumar INEC yayinda hakan ya zama abin dariya a garesu.Wannan zabe ya kafa wasu tarihi guda biyu a wannan shekara1. A duk jahohin Nigeria babu dan Takarar Gwamnan daya samu Kuri’a Million Daya sai a Kano kuma a karkashin sabuwar Jam’iyar NNPP.2. A tarihin Nigeria gaba daya wannan ne karo na farko da tsagin gwamnati sukayi zanga zanga akan neman hakkinsu.

Nigeria Elections Diary: A View from Kano by Mallam Usman Aliyu (Hausa)

Editor’s Introduction (by Alex Thurston):

Nigeria held presidential and legislative elections on February 25, and will hold state elections on March 18. I asked an old friend and colleague, Mallam Usman Aliyu of Kano, if he would be willing to keep an election season diary and allow me to publish it here. For over a decade, Mallam Usman’s observations about local and national politics have shaped and informed my own understanding of Nigeria. Although written in the moment, I think these entries already have staying power. Below is the Hausa text. I will briefly summarize here:

In the first entry (from February 10), Mallam Usman reflects back on the party primaries and what he sees as a vigorous, four-way competition for the presidency between Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso. He also discusses the allegations of ill-health and corruption that Tinubu and Atiku’s campaigns leveled at one another, and also covers in detail the gubernatorial candidates in Kano (the most populous state in the north).

In the second entry (from February 21), Mallam Usman describes the mood in Nigeria and in Kano on the eve of the elections, especially amid the cash shortages – and he brings in ordinary people’s views of why outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari authorized the controversial effort to exchange old bank notes for new ones.

In the third entry (from March 1), Mallam Usman analyzes the election results and describes people’s reactions to them and to the conduct and the expense of the elections. He concludes by noting that some in Atiku’s camp felt that Kwankwaso (who won heavily in Kano) in some way tipped the election to Tinubu.

In any case, these brief summaries don’t do the full diary justice. Hausa speakers may be interested to read the whole thing.

February 10, 2023

ZABEN 2023

Duba da lokacin da muke ciki a yanzu, zabe ya gabato, wato zaben Shugaban Kasa  da na sauran mukamai: Gwamnonin jihohi da kuma na yan majalisun tarayya da na jihohi wanda ake sa ran fara gabatarwa ranar 25 ga wannan  watan. Kamar dai yadda hukumar zabe mai zaman kanta wato INEC karkashin shugaban wato Professor Mahmoud Yakubu ta tsara. Ana sa ran gudanar da zaben Shugaban Kasa da na Yan majalisun tarayya ranar 25 ga watan wanda daga bayan sa zasu gudanar da na jihohin Kasar gaba daya.

Idan mukayi laakari da Manyan Jam’iyunyake da za’a buga zaben sun hada da PDP, APC, NNPP da kuma LP.

APC – ASIWAJU BOLA AHMAD TINUBU

PDP – ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR

NNPP – ENGR. RABIU MUSA KWANKWASO

LP – PETER OBI

Kowane dan kasa a yanzu yana hasashe ne akan daya daga cikin wannan Jami’iyu shine zai lashe wannan gagarumin zabe, yayinda Mutane da dama sukace wannan zaben fah ya banbanta da sauran zabukan da akayi a baya domin kuwa a cikin yan Takarar da suke cikin wannan Jam’iyu guda 4 ana ganin kowa zai iya lashe wannan da kuma tsarin da Hukumar Zabe INEC wanda ganin baayi Magudin zabe ba kuma baa samu abinda a zaben baya aka samu ba wato (Inconclusive) wanda hakika a zaben 2019 ya zama babban abinda yaciwa Talakawa tuwo a kwarya har suke ganin anyi abinda akayi a wannan zaben, to Alhamdulillah shi Shugaban Hukumar Zabe INEC (Mahmuod Yakubu) ya bada tabbacin cewa a wannan zabe fa babu maganar Magudin Zabe da kuma Inconclusive, sakamakon hakane mutane suke hasashen tabbas wannan zaben fah zai bada mamaki ganin kowane Dan Takara yanada nasa Jama’ar kuma kowane Dan Takara a cikin Mutane 4 din dana lissafa ka iya darewa shugabancin wannan kasa duba ga wasu alkaluma na siyasa da kuma alamu da suke bayyana.

Idan muka faro tun daga Farko wato Zaben Fidda Gwani (Primary Election) manyan jam’iyu irinsu APC da PDP sun sha gwagwarmaya matuka kafin su Fidda guda 1 a ciki ya zama Amintaccen Dan Takara, idan mukayi duba ga APC wato Jam’iya mai mulki an shiga zaben fidda Gwani da yan Takara 10 wanda 3 daga ciki sukafi Shahara sune, Bola Ahmad Tinubu, Yemi Osibanjo da kuma  Rotimi Amaechi yayin da Yan Takara 6 suka Janyewa Tinubu daya kuma ya janyewa Osibanjo. Daga karshe dae Bola Tinubu ya lashe zabe da mafificin rinjaye. Sai Jami’iyar PDP inda mutane 3 din da sukafi Shahara sune Alh. Atiku Abubakar, Nyesome Wike da kuma Bukola Saraki. A daya bangaren wato NNPP da kuma LP (Labour Party) basu sha wahala wajen fitar da yan Takararsu ba tun bayan da Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ya fice daga Jami’iyar PDP ya shiga Jam’iyar NNPP tare da nuna kudiransa na tsaya musu Takarar Shugabancin kasa haka yasa basu bata lokaci wajen tunani ko kokarin gabatar da Zaben Fidda gwani ba suka bashi wannan Takara domin kasancewarsa sananne kuma goge a harkar siyasa. Sai kuma Peter Obi na Jam’iyar Labour Party shima tun bayan daya Fice daga Jam’iyar PDP ya nuna kudirinsa wajen zamar musu dan Takara basuyi wata-wata ba suka amince domin yayi musu wannan Takarar kasancewarsa masani ne a Siyasa kuma yayi Gwamna a Jihar Anambra.

Akwai labarai da sukayi ta yawo a Kafafen sada zumunta akan Cecekucen dake tsakanin Manyan yan takarar Shugabancin kasar nan wato Atiku Abubakar na Jam’iyar PDP da kuma Bola Tinubu na jam’iyar APC inda Yan takarar suke jefa wa junansu zarge-zarge game da lafiyarsu da kuma cin hanci da rashawa yayin da a lokacin ya rage saura baifi kwana 40 a gudanar da babban zaɓen ƙasar na 2023.

Tawagar yaƙin neman zaɓen Bola Tinubu na jam’iyyar APC mai mulki ce ta fara sukar Atiku Abubakar, na babbar jam’iyyar adawa ta PDP, tana mai cewa ba shi da lafiyar jagorantar Najeriya. Tinubu ya ce ya kamata ‘yan Najeriya su ji da lafiyar Atiku domin shi yana da cikakkiyar lafiyar gudanar da mulki a yayin da suke mayar da martani, tawagar kamfen ɗin Atiku ta zargi Tinubu da aikata cin hanci da rashawa, tana mai ikirarin cewa “Tinubu kansa shi ne cin hanci”. An daɗe ana tafka muhawara kan ƙoshin lafiyar ‘yan takarar shugabancin ƙasa a Najeriya, inda al-uma suke gudun maimaita abinda ya faru a baya bayan da Shugaba Buhari da ke mulki a yanzu ya shafe watanni yana jinya a Birtaniya a wa’adin mulkinsa na farko.

Cikin wata sanarwa da tawagar yaƙin nema zaɓen Bola Tinubu na APC ta fitar sun zargi Atiku Abubakar na PDP da ɓoye ainahin ƙoshin lafiyarsa da kuma cin hanci.

“Lokaci ya yi da Atiku Abubakar zai faɗi gaskiya game da abu biyu: ƙoshin lafiyarsa da kuma yadda ya haɗa baki da tsohon mai gidansa Olusegun Obasanjo wajen sace dukiyar Najeriya,” a cewar sanarwar da mai magana da yawun tawagar ya fitar, Bayo Onanuga.

Mista Onanuga ya ce tawagar Kamfe ɗin Atiku na ɓoye batun lafiyar ɗan takararsu ta hanyar ƙirƙirar ƙarairayi kan nasu ɗan takarar.

“Atiku ne ɗan takarar da ‘yan Najeriya ya kamata su damu a kansa. Ƙarairayi na tsawon lokaci da sauran hanyoyin kawar da hankali sun daina aiki yanzu.

“Tabbas Atiku ba shi da lafiya kuma hanyoyin da ake bi wajen ɓoyewa sun yi kaɗan.”

Da ya ke mayar da martani game da zarge-zargen, kakakin tawagar kamfe ɗin Atiku Kola Ologbondiyan, ya ce abin dariya ne ganin yadda APC ke yi wa ɗan takararsu ƙagen rashin lafiya.

“Kazalika, shashanci ne yunƙurin da Tinubu ya ke yi, wanda ya yi shuhura da zama cin hanci shi kansa, na ɓata sunan ɗan takarar PDP,” in ji shi.

Sanarwar ba ta gushe ba sai da ta zargi Tinubu da mu’amala da miyagun ƙwayoyi. A siyasar Najeriya, ba sabon abu ba ne ‘yan takara su dinga jifan junansu da manyan zarge-zarge irin waɗannan a bainar jama’a. Sai dai kuma ba za a taɓa ganinsu tare suna ce-ce-ku-ce a juna ba ballantana rikici.

Rashin manufofi ne ke jawo irin waɗannan munanan zarge-zarge tsakanin PDP da APC a Najeriya, a cewar Farfesa Kamilu Sani Fagge, wani masanin kimiyyar siyasa a Jami’ar Bayero ta Kano a lokutta daban daban da ya ke yin fashin bakin siyasar Kasar nan.

“Wannan al’amari ya nuna irin yadda siyasarmu take, saboda ‘yan takarar ba su da wani tsari na tunkarar matsalolin da suka addabi ƙasa shi ya sa ake ta zargin juna da kalaman ɓatanci da siyasar banga,” in ji shi.

Farfesa Fagge ya ce irin waɗannan kalamai ba za su yi wani tasiri ba a kan masu zaɓe.

“Ba zai sauya ra’ayin wani mai jefa ƙuri’a ba don ya zaɓi wani takara.”

Haka nan, masanin kimiyyar siyasar na ganin cewa kalaman za su ƙara zafafa yayin da zaɓe ke ƙara ƙaratowa, “amma da zarar an yi zaɓe sai ka ji shuru, a bar magoya baya da cecekuce”.

Wasu daga cikin mutanen Najeriya suna ganin babu babban abinda yake damun Kasar nan a yanzu face cin hanci da rashawa da kuma rashin samun lafiyayyen Shugaban da zai jagorance su kuma suke gudun kara fadawa wannan tarkon. Hakan yayi tasiri sosai wajen sakawa wasu yan Najeriya shakku akan wadannan yan Takara guda 2 wato Atiku da Tinubu, yayinda a daya bangaren kuma Engr. Kwankwaso da kuma Peter Obi suka sake samun damar cigaba da Kamfen da wannan dama da suka samu akan abokan Karawarsu.

A yanzu ya rage baifi saura kwana 10 a shiga babban zabe yayin da yan takara suke ta kokarin zagaya Garuruwa domin jaddada kudirinsu na shugabantar wannan kasa, abunda yake yawo a yanzu shine ikirarin da Dan Takarar jami’iyar APC Bola Tinubu akan an canja kudi kuma ana wahalar mai saboda talakawa su tsani Jam’iyar APC kuma ya fadi zabe a fadarsa kamar kamshin mutuwa yan Jam’iyarsa sukeyi masa, kwatsam sai akaji Gwamnan Jihar Kaduna Nasir El-Rufa’I yana cewa wasu manya a Villa basa goyon bayan Tinubu a yayinda jama’ar Gari kuma suke ganin karara wannan Magana da Mai Girma Buhari yake.

Idan akazo fanin raayi da kuma cancanta mutane da dama sun fadi albarkacinsu da kuma hasashe akan wanda ake tunanin zai iya lashe wannan zabe. Mutane da dama sun fadi raayinsu game da wanda suka cancanta da wanda kuma suke hasashen wanda zai lashe zabe. Wasu sunce indae maganar cancanta ake to fa Bola Tinubi baya cikin wanda suka cancanta sakamakon shekarunsa sunja kuma bashida cikakkiyar lafiya Bugu da kari kuma ana zarginsa da safarar miyagun kwayoyi, bugu da kari kuma ga yanayin da jama’a suke tunanin jam’iyar APC ta saka mutane tun daga lokacin da suka karbi mulkin kasa shekara 8 kenan ga kuma wahalar mai da kudi da ake fuskanta a yanzu da zabe ya gabato, tabbas wannan ka iya shafar shi dan takarar APC Tinubu. Sannan kuma mutanen Arewa suna ganin a cikin manufofin Tinubi babu wani abu da zai amfani yan Arewa, hakan ma yana iya kawo masa nakasu wajen cin zabe.

A daya bangaren kuma mutane da yawa suna ganin Atiku Abubakar ma bai cancanci zama Shugaban kasa ba sakamakon tun daga primary election duk wani abu daya shafi yakin neman zabensa yana amfani da kudi shiyasa ma mutane suke hasashen tabbas idan yaci zabe jama’a zasu sha wahala saboda tunaninsa dan kudinsa aka zabeshi kuma yanada kudirin mayar abubuwa da dama hannun yan kasuwa wanda jama’a suke ganin hakan wahala zai karawa yan Najeriya. Wasu da yawa sunce bashida gogewa da jajircewar da ake bukata saboda mukamin mataimakin shugaban kasa ya rike wanda yake daidai da dan zaman banza kuma baisan kukan talakawa da kuma abinda suke bukata ba. Bugu da kari ga matsalar rashin cikakkiyar lafiya da kuma shekaru da shima suka cimmasa wanda yan Najeriya suna ganin hakan bazai bashi cikakkiyar dammar gudanar da mulkin wannan kasa.

A bangaren Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso kuwa kasancewa ta dan Kano banci karo da rashin cancantarsa da yawa ba saidai masu ganin idan yaci mulki yanada riko kuma baya yafiya shiyasa wasu suke ganin zaiyi amfani da wannan damar wajen Taka duk wanda yakeso wanda kuma talakawan Najeriya bashi suke bukata a yanzu ba. Sannan kuma mutanen kudancin Najeriya suna zargin idan yaci mulki to fa zai karkato da abubuwa da dama zuwa Arewa saboda kasancewarsa mutum mai kabilanci. Wasu kuma suna ganin abinda zai hanashi cin zabe bai huce fitowarsa a cikin karamar jam’iyar da baa dade da kafata ba kuma jama’ar mu musamman na kauyuka sunfi sanin jam’iyar PDP da APC kuma wannan babban nakasu ne ga Rabiu Kwankwaso.

A qarshe idan mukazo maganar Dan Takarar Labour Party wato Peter Obi kaso 95% na mutanen arewacin Najeriya basu san Peter Obi ba saboda dalilai guda 2 na 1, Ya fito a Jam’iyar da baa santa ba na 2, baiyiwa Najeriya wani abun azo a gani da har zasu sanshi ba. Da yawa suna ganin idan ma ace an sanshi kamar sauran Yan Takara to fa bashida gogewar mulki kasancewar Gwamna yayi a wani karamin garin da baifi yawan mutanen Local Government daya ba a Kano wato Anambra kuma bashida cikakkiyar nagartar zama Shugaban wannan kasa.

Idan muka dawo batun wanda ake ganin zai iya lashe zabe da kuma dalilai;

1. Dan takarar Jam’iyar APC wato Tinubu zai iya lashe zabe sakamakon da yawa mutanen Lagos suna sonsa kuma ana ganin suna cikin garurwan da suke da yawan al-umma a Najeriya da kuma wanda suke yarensa zasuyi masa kara, sannan kuma idan aka duba wanda ya dauka a Mataimaki Kashim Shatima shima mutum ne mai Jama’a a jahar Borno wanda ka iya taimakawa wajen ganin Tinubu yaci zabe.

2. Dan takarar Jam’iyar PDP Atiku Abubakar kusan shi mutane suke ganin tabbas wannan shekarar tasa ce saboda a zaben baya kusan yayi kankankan da Shugaba Buhari wanda shine akan mulki a wannan lokaci shiyasa suke ganin wannan karon zai iya cin zabe kuma da yawa suna ganin shine zai ceto kasar nan daga halin da take ciki. Sannan mutanen Arewa maso Gabas sunyi alwashin sun gaji da yan Arewa ta ta yamma suna mulkarsu suna shan wahala shiyasa sukace suma fa wannan karon nasu zasu zaba.

3. Dan takarar Jam’iyar NNPC Rabiu kwankwaso shine na 2 a jerin wanda suka kasance favourite saboda masu ganin duk cikin yan takarar yafisu cancanta da kuma gogewar mulki saboda ya riqe mukamai da dama fiye da sauran yan takara hakama yafi dukkan sauran yan takara mataki a karatu wanda da yawa suke ganin matakin iliminsa ya kai ya jagoranci wannan kasa kuma ya ceto ta daga halin da take ciki saboda jajircewarsa a wajen shugabanci kuma ya kasance mai fada da cika duk abinda yayi alkawari a lokacin dayayi mulki a Kano da kuma sauran mukaman daya rike. Mutane da yawa harda yan kudu suna kara bashi nasara saboda mataimakinsa mutum ne mai mutane hakan na iya sawa wasu daga cikin mutanen kudi su zabi kwankwaso saboda mataimakinsa. Duk wanda zai bude baki akansa saidai yafadi wani abun daban amma indae maganar cancanta ake to ba shakka Kwankwaso yafi duk sauran yan takara cancanta.

4. Dan takarar Jam’iyar Labour Party Peter Obi shine na karshe a hasashen mutane sakamakon rashin saninsa da baayi a arewa ba da kuma kasancewa mutanen Arewa sunfi mutanen Kudu yawa hakan zaiyi matukar shafar nasararsa.

BABBAN ZABEN GWAMNA JIHAR KANO

Kimanin kwanaki 25 ko kasa da haka suka rage zaben Gwamna a Jihar Kano, zaben da zai kasance mafi daukar hankali a Arewacin Nigeria. Zabe ne tsakanin Manyan Jami’iyu guda 4;

1. Abba Kabir Yusuf (NNPP Party)
2. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna (APC)
3. Muhammad Abacha (PDP)
4. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada (ADP)

Idan muka dauki wadannan yan takara daya bayan daya muka tattauna cancantar su da kuma abinda ka iya hana kowannensu hawa wannan kujera zamuyi gamo da abubuwan ban mamaki a ciki;

1. Abba Kabir Yusuf (NNPP) mafi yawan Al-ummar Jihar Kano musamman na cikin Kano da kewaye sun raja’a akan Abba saboda kasancewarsa tare da Rabiu Kwankwaso da kuma duba da nasarar daya samu a zaben daya gabata wanda shine yakasance shiga Zaben sa na farko a siyasa mutane mafi rinjaye suke ganin shine ya dace ya hau wannan kujera musamman yan cikin garin Kano suna ganin wannan lokacin fa dan cikin kwaryar Kano sukeso. Babbar matsalar da zai iya samu bai huce kasancewarsa a sabuwar Jam’iyar da yawanci mutanen kauye basa banbancewa sun fi sanin PDP da APC.

2. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna (APC) ya zama kamar shine na 2 da mutane suke tunanin da hasashen zai hau kujerar mulki wanda dama shine mataimakin gwamna a yanzu. Saidai Jama’a da dama suna ganin rashin cancantarsa saboda abinda suka aikata a zaben daya gabata dashi da Mataimakinsa a yanzu wanda ake ganin rashin sanin darajar Dan Adam ne mutane subi layi cikin rana suyi zabe saboda son zuciya da kwadayin mulki su yaga sakamakon zabe. Wannan ka iya zama babban tabo a gareshi, yayinda wasu da dama suke ganin mutum ne mai fuska 2 yana nuna son hadin kai da kuma taimakawa al-ummar jihar Kano bayan a zuciya da ayyukansa mutane basuga hakan a zahiri ba, sannan kuma ana ganin abubuwan da yake cewa zaiyi idan yah au mulki meyasa a matsayinsa na mataimakin gwamna bai bawa gwamna shawara yayi ba lokacin da yake kan mulki hakan ya fito da yaudara a cikin lamarinsa.

3. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada (ADP) fitowar Sha’aban takarar Gwamna ya zama abu mai matukar mamaki a idon mutanen Kano yayinda mafi akasari ma suke zargin takararsa bata gaske bace contract aka bashi wanda daga karshe zai janye ya hada kai da wani. Babban abinda mutane basu fahimta ba shine Sha’aban mutum ne mai al-umma a jihar Kano wanda ko baici zabe ba to fa zai ragewa yan takara kuri’a. Kuma kasancewarsa a cikin karamar Jam’iyar da a cikin gari ma baa santa ba sosai bare kuma cikin kauyuka ka iya bashi matsala a wannan zabe da zaayi.

4. Muhammad Abacha (PDP) Al-ummar Jihar Kano sun gaza gane me yake faruwa a Jam’iya PDP a Kano, yau ace Abacha ne dan takara gobe ace Sadiq Wali shiyasa ma mutane da yawa suke ganin jam’iyar PDP bata shirya shiga wannan zabe da zai gabata nanda kwanakin da basufi 32 ba. Jama’a da yawa suna ganin wannan kamar wasan kwaikwayo ne kuma hakan yasa baa saka jam’iyar PDP a lissafin zaben gwamnan jihar Kano. Idan ma ace Abacha ko Sadiq ne dan takara to fa dukkansu babu abinda suka sani akan siyasa da kuma mu’amala da mutane. Rashin kamfen da basuyi ba sakamakon rigimar cikin gida da suke fama da ita yasa ake ganin to fa tabbas lokaci ya kure musu.

A karshe zan rufe wannan rubutu nawa da cewa tabbas a Kano za’ayi zaben da aka dade baayi kamar sa ba kuma hasashen mutane da yawa ya nuna koma waye zaici wannan zabe to fa zaici ne da fifikon kuri’a kadan saboda yan takarar da suka fito wannan zabe.

A karshe muna Addu’ar Allah ya zaba mana shugabanni na gari wanda suke da niyyar gyara ba wanda Zasu yi wadaka da dukiyar al’umma ba.

Duk da cewa mutane da dama suna ganin wannan zabe ba lalle ne ya yiwu ba amma dai shi shugaban hukumar zaben mai zaman kanta wato INEC Professor Mahmoud Yakubu ya kuma ya sake kuma maimaitawa a kowanne lokaci cewa hukumar sa zata bada mamaki kuma zata gudanar da zabe mafi sahihanci a cikin tarihin zabukan wannan kasa tamu Nigeria.

Wani sabon batu kuma wanda ya fito ranar Talata 7/2/2023 shine wata sanarwa da gamayyar wasu jam’iyu guda goma sha uku a cikin sha takwas suka fidda shine  sun cimma matsaya akan cewa akwai yiwuwar ba zasu shiga cikin wannan zabe mai zuwa ba duba da yanayin da alumma ke ciki na halin matsi kama daga wahalar man fetur da kuma matsi dangane da wannan canjin kudi da aka yi duba da dan takaitattecn lokacin da Babban Bankin kasar nan ta bayar wanda ya haifar da matsi da kuma cecekuce a tsakanin mutane, Yan takarkaru da kuma shugannin siyasun kasar nan.idan har hakan ta tabbata to lalle sai mu ce wannan zabe mai zuwa yana fuskantar tazgado wanda kuma ka iya sakawa a daga ko kuma ma zaben ya zamanto ba mai iya yiwuwa ba gaba daya.A halin da ake ciki kuma a yau din nan Laraba 9 ga wata ana ci gaba da samun labarin zanga zanga a garuruwa da dama Kamar Jihar Ogun, Edo, Kogi da sauransu haka kuma a na ci  gaba da samun labarin mutane a jihohi daban daban suna lalata na’urar ATM da kuma yunkurin farmaki ga bankuna duka dai domin nuna rashin jin dadi kan wannan batu. wannan dai shine halin da Kasar nan ta samu kanta wanda kuma ka iya jawowa a dage zaben ko kuma ma hana iya gudanar da zaben ma gaba daya.

February 21, 2023

Yayin da ya rage saura kwana 3 daidai a shiga babban zaben shugaban kasa da yan majalissar tarayya kuma ake gab da rufe yakin neman zabe (campaign), Jama’a na kara kokawa kan matsin rayuwa da ake ciki sakamakon canjin kudin da aka samu yayinda hakan ya bude fuskoki guda 2 a bangaren siyasa. 

Na 1 wasu daga cikin gwamnonin Arewa da suka kasance yan jam’iya mai ci a yanzu wayo APC suna ganin kamar shugaban kasa fa kamshin mutuwa yakeyi musu saboda yana ganin shi fa ya gama mulkinsa shiyasa bai damu su ci zabe ko su fadi ba kuma hakan ya nuna kamar akwai wata a kasa tsakanin su da gwamnonin da kuma shi shugaban kasa.

Amma a cewar shugaba Buhari an yi wannan canjin kudi ne sakamakon yaji kishin-kishin cewar manyan yan siyasa musamman Gwannoni sun tanadi kudade masu tarin yawa domin suyi amfani dasu lokaci zabe domin siyan kuri’ar talakawa, wanda shugaban yake ganin hakan ya saba da dokar kasa, kuma yunkurin da yakeyi a yanzu zaa iya cewa yana iya kokarinsa wajen ganin a wannan zabe na 2023 an gabatar da zabe sahihi kuma mai inganci. 

Na 2 a bangaren talakawan gari kuma suna kokawa matuka sakamakon wahalar kudi wanda suke ganin ya zama kamar rijiya ta bayar da ruwa guga ya hana, mutane sun yi aiki tukuru wajen neman kudi amma kashe su ya zama wahala, duk inda ake samun kudi (cash) sun zama samunsu wahala koda zaka samu kuwa sai kabi dogon layi kuma ranka ya baci sannan a karshe ma bazaka samu abinda zai isheka ba. Ya zama abinda ake cewa kaida kudinka amma saidai idan zaka fita kaje wajen masu POS kamar kana maular su taimaka maka da abinda zakayi transport kuma kaci abinci, Jama’a da dama sun ce wannan wahala da ake basu DANBAKARA suda jam’iya mai mulki yayinda kowa yake Allah wadai da wannan matsin rayuwa.

Wasu tunanin su shine Shugaban kasa yayi wannan canjin domin tabbatar da sahihin zabe saidai ya zama abinda hausawa suke cewa bayan wuya sai dadi to tabbas wannan itace wuyar kuma idan muka jure da yardar Allah a cewar su  zamu samu dammar zabar shugabanni da kanmu kuma zaa bamu wanda muka zaba.

Zaben bana yazo da tsaruka na musamman ba kamar wanda akayi a baya ba domin na samu tattaunawa da waddanda suke zuwa  yin  training na aikin zaben wanda aka fara ranar Juma’a, kamar yadda suka Gani dai gaskiya ne zaben ya zo da sababbin abubuwa kamar amfani da na’urar BVAS wajen tantance duk wanda zai kada kuri’a kuma a wannan zabe babu zancen tantance mai yin zabe ta hanyar takarda wato (manual identification) sai na’urar BVAS ta tantanceka sannan zaka samu dammar kada kuri’a. 

A Daya bangaren kuma abinda mutane suke fada na cewa anya zaayi zaben nan ba tare da an daga ba na iya faruwa saboda alamu sun nuna karara hukumar gudanar da zabe INEC batada isassun kudaden gabatar da wannan zabe, akwai littafin da ake amfani dashi wajen bawa masu aikin zabe wato (Manual) a zaben baya an bawa kowane ma’aikaci nasa amma wannan zaben sai gashi an buge da hada ma’aikata 3 da manual daya wanda hakan na iya haifar da rashin fahimtar aikin ga maaikatan zabe.

A bangaren talakawan gari mutane da dama suna ganin akwai wasu dalilai da zai sa suyi kokari wajen ganin sun kawo sauyin gwamnati musamman al-ummar Arewacin Nigeria, wanda suke ganin ma babu wani mai hankali da zai kara zabar jam’iya mai ci a yanzu domin ikirarin da suke gani a shekara 8 da wannan jam’iya tayi mulki basu amfanawa talakawa wani abun azo a gani ba sai koma baya, tsananin rayuwa da tashin kaya masarufi da dai sauransu. A duk kwanakin da suke shudewa a cikin wannan yanayi Jam’iya mai mulki tana kara samun koma baya a bangaren mutanen saboda tsananin wahalar da akesha a yanzu daya rage kwana 3 kacal babban zabe. 

Ana gab da shiga wannan zabe ne akaji Dan Takarar PDP Atiku yana cika baki da bugun karji kan shifa yafi karfin Dan  Takararsa na APC Bola Tinubu har yake ganin koda sau 100 zaayi zabe tskaninsa da Tinubu to tabbas shine zaiyi nasara, hakan yasa wasu mutanen suke mamakin wannan Magana tasa har suke cewa to kenan da Tinubu kadai yake ganin zai goga ina ya bar dan Takarar NNPP wato Kwankwaso da kuma dan takarar LP Peter Obi. Babban hasashen da jamaa sukeyi kuwa shine abinda Hausawa suke fada na Dan Hakkin daka raina na iya faruwa dashi Atikun domin Kwankwaso da Peter Obi ba ababan rainawa bane a wannan zabe domin kuwa suma sunada magoya baya kuma musamman Kwankwaso kullum suna Karin samun goyon baya daga talakawan gari dama wasu jiga-jigai a manyan jam’iyu. 

Zaben Gwannoni Kuma  ya rage sati 2 da kuma kwana 3 yayinda manyan yan takara suka cigaba da yakin neman zabe (Campaign) 

Anan Kano babban abinda yake yawo a wajen mutane shine hukuncin da babbar kotun kasa ta yanke kan wanda zai tsayawa jam’iyar PDP takarar tsakanin Muhammad Abacha da Sadiq Wali inda kotu ta tabbatar da Sadiq Wali a matsayin halattaccen dan takarar gwamnan Jihar Kano wanda hakan yasa wasu jiga-jigan dake bayan Muhammad Abacha suka fice daga Jam’iyar zuwa sabuwar Jam’iyar NNPP domin a ganinsu uwar Jam’iya basuyi musu adalci ba kasancewar suna ganin kamar anyi amfani da karfin da tsagin Sadiq Wali suke dashi a jam’iyar wajen yi musu kamshin mutuwa, su kuwa hakan yasa suka fice suka bi tsohuwan mai gidansu Rabiu Kwankwaso, su kuma yan tsagin Aminu da sukayiwa nasara suke ganin yan tsagin Abacha sun cucesu wajen hargitsa musu jam’iya da bijiro da yan takarar bogi domin rabawa mutane hankali misali a karamar hukumar Tarauni , Adam Zaki ne dan takarar Majalissar jaha kwatsam kuma sai jiya muka wayi gari ana yawo da poster wani dan takarar daban shima karkashin jam’iyar ta PDP, tsagin Aminu Wali sun cigaba da cewa sun bata musu lokaci wajen rashin samun cikakkiyar damar yakin neman zabe (campaign) wanda suke ganin matukar suka fadi zabe to fa wannan dalilin ne yasa domin Jama’ar gari da dama har yanzu basu san waye halattaccen dan takara ba bare ma suyi tunanin kada masa kuri’a, domin a Kano maganar yan takara 3 kacal akeyi Abba, Gawuna da kuma Sha’aban. 

Saidai masu hasashe fa suna ganin sauran yan takarar dake kananun jam’iya irinsu Mal. Ibrahim Khalil su Salihu Tanko Yakasai suna iya kawowa duk mai kokarin cin zabe cikas domin suma sunada nasu jama’ar a boye kuma har gobe dukkansu kowa yana sa rai da lashe wannan zabe. A bangaren Jam’iyar APC kuwa dan takara Gawuna yana iya kokarinsa wajen shiga kauyuka da tabbatar musu da kudirinsa na dorawa akan inda mai Girma Gwamna ya tsaya kuma yana musu alkawarin tallafi ga mata da matasa yayinda jamaa suke ganin wannan fa bakomai bane face yaudara domin suna ganin a mulkin yanzun ma basu amfana ba bare kuma wanda suke tunanin idan Gawuna ya koma mulki to fa zaaci gaba da shan wahala da kuma kamshin mutuwa ga mutanen musamman yan Adaidaita Sahu da kuma wanda ake tashin su daga wajen sana’arsu ba tare da an nema musu wani ba, kuma tabbas wannan na iya kawo cikas ga kudirin shi dan takara duba da yawan yan adaidaita Sahu a Kano state 

A halin yanzu yan Adaidaita Sahu suna cewa babu mai hankalin da zai zabi wannan gwamnati. 

Ta bangaren Sha’aban Sharada na ADC kuwa jama’a sun ce sun ji shiru wanda haka ya dawo dasu kan zargin da sukeyi tun a farko na cewa takararsa bata gaske bace inda suke gasgata kewa kamar kwangila aka bashi domin ya kawowa jam’iyar APC cikas a wannan zaben tunda yanzu sunji shi baya wani motsi a lokacin da suke ganin ya dace fa ace ya motsa duba da kwanaki kadan ya rage wannan zabe. Ta bangaren NNPP kuwa Abba Gida Gida kuma ya kara dagewa wajen shiga lungu da sako domin ganin ya kara jawo hankalin alumma domin su kara zabarsa a karo na biyu bayan daya samu ruwan kuri’u a zaben daya gabata, wanda hakan yasa mafi akasarin mutane suke ganin a wannan karon fa kowane dan takara saidai ya hakura ya barwa Abba dan suna ganin kamar yanzu shine lokacinsa, bugu da kari shigowar manyan jam’iyar PDP cikin tafiyar NNPP irinsu Sagagi da sauransu hakan ma yasa ya kara farin jini kuma mafi soyuwa a wajen alumma duba da yadda yake tara mutane a wajen taronsa.

Babban abinda yake kwantarwa da jama’a hankali shine kokarin da shugaban INEC yakeyi wajen ganin anyi zabe mai sahihanci a wannan kakar zaben kuma anyi yaki da amfani da yan daba da wasu yan siyasa sukeyi da kuma matsalar sace akwati da aringizon kuri’u domin hanyar daya daukko ta nuna amfani da naurar computer wajen tura sakamakon zabe zuwa ga INEC kai tsaye.

A wani bangaren Kuma hankalin Jama’ ya tashi sakamakon daukewar sadarwa wato network service da ake maganar zaayi daga nan zuwa Juma’a domin dai ganin anyi zabe mai sahihanci. 

Wannan shine atakaice abinda ke faruwa a halin yanzu nan kasar dangane da wannan Zaben Mai zuwa.

March 1, 2023

Tun bayan kammala babban zaben shugaban kasa, sanatoci da kuma yan majalissar tarayya abubuwa da dama sun faru yayin zabe da kuma bayan zabe.

Daga cikin abubuwan da suka faru lokacin zabe sun hada da rashin kai kayan aikin zabe a lokacin zabe wanda ya saba da lokacin da akayi ka’ida na 8:30 inda wasu guraren sai 12 wasu 2 wasu ma 4 wanda hakan ya fusata masu kada kuri’a inda suke ganin yaya za’ayi su baro gidajensu tun 8 wasu ma basu karya ba amma ma’aikatan zabe da kayan zabe basu zo ba sai da lokaci ya kure , sannan kaidar kammala zabe shine karfe 2:30 sai dai duk wanda yake layi dole za’ayi masa amma sai da ta kai an kai har wajen karfe 9 na dare ana kada kuri’a, tabbas hakan ba karamin ci baya bane ga hukumar Inec saboda babu dalilin da zaisa su gaza shiryawa bayan lokutan da aka dauka wajen shirya wannan zabe, bugu da kari a kokarin da inec takeyi wajen ganin ta mayar da kowane akwati yawan mutane baifi 500 ba jama’a da dama an canja musu akwati yayinda aka kirkiri wasu sababbin akwatuna ba tare da mutane sun sani ba, mutane da dama sai sun je kada kur’ia za’ace musu wannan kuri’ar bata wannan akwati bace bayan sun yi shekara da shekaru suna zabe a wannan akwati, wasu an tura musu sako na canjin da aka samu wasu kuma an tura bai shigo ba wasu kuma basu iya samun damar karantawa ba, wannan dalilin yasa jama’a da dama ba suyi zabe ba musamman a Jihar Kano domin kuwa wasu daga inda tsohon akwatinsu yake zuwa inda sabon yake doguwar tafiya ce da tasa mutane da dama suka hakura da wannan zaben, sannan kuma a wannan zaben an samu karancin fitowa zabe fiye da zaben daya huce a baya hakan yanada alaka da mutanen suke ganin zabe a Nigeria bashida wani muhimmanci saboda dalilai guda 2, na daya (1) ta’addancin da wasu masu son  zuciya suke sawa ayi a lokacin zabe inda jama’a suke ganin zama lafiya yafi zama dan sarki kara su zauna a gida basu fita ba bare aji musu ciwo a banza. Na (2) yawan magudin zaben da ake samu wasu ma suna cewa tun kafin zaben ma ansan wanda za’a bawa suke ganin babu bukatar su fita su bata lokacinsu kara a bawa duk wanda za’a bawa. A bangaren ma’aikatan zabe kuma an gaza biyansu hakkinsu na training da kuma allowance na cin abinci wanda da yawa sai ranar zabe da safe sannan aka basu wannan kudade wasu kuma har yau ma baa basu wannan kudade ba kuma da yawa sun yi doguwar tafiya sun kashe kudin mota daga gidajensu zuwa inda zasuyi wannan aiki, ga kuma kudinsu na zabe ma ba’a basu ba har kawo yau, gurare da yawa an samu tangardar naurar tantancewa (BVAS) yayinda wasu guraren kuma ba’a bada isassun kayan aiki ba kuma gurare da dama an samu matsala wajen basu littafin shigar da sakamakon zabe inda aka dinga bada wanda bana wannan akwati ba. Babbar matsalar da INEC ta gaza cikawa itace ta dora sakamakon zabe a internet immediately bayan gama zabe domin kuwa wasu masu amfani da BVAS din basu samu cikakken horo akan naurar da har zasu san yadda zasu dora wannan zabe wasu kuma inda suke babu network da zasuyi connecting su dora wannan sakamakon zaben, wannan matsalar tasa a wajen tattara zabe wakilin PDP Dino Malaye yake korafi akan meyasa baa dora sakamakon zabe a internet ba wanda yake ganin anyi hakan ne domin yin magudi a wannan zabe.

Babban abinda yaja hankali kuma ya bawa mutane matukar mamaki shine tasirin da kananan jam’iyu suka nuna a wannan zabe inda suka lashe zaben manyan jahohin da suke Nigeria guda 2 wato Kano da Lagos da kuma nasarorin da dan takarar Labour Party Peter Obi ya samu a manyan jahohin dake kasar nan ciki harda garin da ake ganin sunfi ko ina yawan jama’a a Nigeria Lagos, wannan nasarar ta bawa mutane mamaki kuma ya nuna kamar mutanenmu sun fara wayewa wajen ganin sun zabi chanchanta ba jam’iya ba. Sannan abun daya faru a jahohin kudu yasa masu hankali a cikin jama’ar arewacin Nigeria sun fuskanci inda aka dosa a yanzu, har akaji wani professor yana ikirarin abinda yan kudu sukayi hankali suka koyawa yan arewa domin su basa hana dan kasa yin register zabe wanda hakan ya basu dammar tara kuri’u mai yawa, inda professor din yake cewa tabbas wannnan abu daya faru yasa sun gane a zabe mai zuwa har almajirai sai sunyi musu register katin zabe kuma zasu jajirce wajen nunawa nasu soyayya domin kuwa soyayyar da inyamurai suka nunawa peter obi ce tasa ya samu nasara a guraruwa da dama ciki harda Arewacin Nigeria kamar Abuja, plateau da kuma Jahar Nasarawa. Idan mukayi duba da Jahar Kano wannan zabe ya bada mamaki matuka ganin yadda al’ummar jahar Kano suka karbi tafiyar sabuwar jam’iya wanda aka dade baaga hakan a shekaru da dama tun zamanin Abubakar Rimi. Sabuwar Jam’iyar ta lashe kusan kaso 90% na kujerun yan majalissa da suke jahar da kuma lashe Sanata 2 a cikin 3 dake jahar, zaben daya yamutsa hazo wanda har yanzu ake tattaunawa akansa shine zaben Tudun Wada da kuma Doguwa wanda ake zargin dan takarar majalissa wannan karamar hukuma yayi amfani da matasa wajen aikata ta’addanci a wajen wannan zabe domin ya samu nasara, abin ban haushi shaidun gani da ido sun tabbatar da an ganshi shi da kansa yana harbi a wajen wannan zabe kuma an tabbatar da akwai mutumin da aka harbeshi yana sallah a wannan waje bayan mutanen da aka kulle daki aka kunna musu wuta, wannan ba karamin ci baya bane a tsarin democracy kuma ya sava da dokokin kasa wajen amfani da ta’addanci a lokacin zabe da kuma ba lokacin zabe ba, al’ummar Nigeria dai sun zuba ido domin ganin hukuncin da zaa dauka akan wannan dan majalissa domin kuwa INEC ta tabbatar dashi a matsayin zababben wannan yanki, har yanzu dai ana bincike inda shi wannan dan takara yake tsare a hannun jami’an farin kaya (DSS).

A jiya daddare aka kammala karbar sakamakon zabe kuma aka tabbatar da wanda yayi nasara a wannan zabe amma fa akwai hujjoji da suke nuna yadda aka tafka magudi a wannan zabe inda akaji jam’iyar PDP da LP suna ikirarin lallai a soke wannan zabe a sake wani ko kuma su garzaya kotu. Kadan daga cikin sakamakon garuruwan da ake gani an tafka wannan magudi sun hada da Jahar Ekiti inda wakilin PDP Dino Malaye yace sakamakon da INEC ta wallafa a shafinta ba shine aka kawo gaban shugaban zabe ba, inda a gefe guda ma akaji tsohon shugaban kasar Nigeria Obasanjo ya soki wannan zabe kuma yayi umarni da lallai shugaban INEC ya soke wannan zabe gaba daya a sake wani domin bai yarda da ingancinsa ba yayinda su kuma jam’iya masu mulki sukayi masa martani da bashida darajar da zaisa a soke zabe, Kungiyar European Union (EU) ma tana cikin kungiyoyin da suka soki wannan zabe inda sukace akwai kuskure da dama da kuma rashin ingancin zaben duba da an samu satar akwati a gurare da dama kuma mutane sunyi korafi kala-kala akan zaben da dai sauransu.

Babban abinda mutane suke korafi akai shine zaben Jahar Gombe inda baturen zaben da kansa ya ayyana mutane 295,782 sune adadin wanda akayiwa register yayinda aka tantance mutane 78,487 amma bisa mamaki sai aka samu adadin valid vote 88,991 wanda aka samu Karin akalla mutane 10,000 da wani abun akan wanda aka tantance, to abin tambayar shine tayaya wannan mutane 10,000 din sukayi zabe ba’a tantancesu ba bayan a dokar wannan zabe matukar na’urar tantancewa BVAS bata tantance ka ba saidai kayi hakuri, kuma mutane suke mamakin yadda aka karanta wannan sakamakon a gaban shugaban shugaban INEC kuma ya karba ba tare da yayi korafi akan hakan ba, hakan ya bawa mutane gamsuwa akan video da suke yawo a kafefen sadarwa na an bawa yara kuri’a suna dangwalawa duk da ba’a tabbatar da wannan video daga wane gari ya fito ba, sai ma aka jiyo Jam’iyar APC suna bada umarnin a kama Dino Malaye da Dele Mammadu bisa zargin tada tarzoma a lokacin karbar zabe a Abuja. A safiyar yau kuma aka tashi da zanga-zanga a garin Abuja inda suke zargin Shugaba Buhari da kuma shugaban INEC bisa rashin cika alkawarin da suka dauka na gabatar da sahihin zabe, har suke ikirarin lallai shugaban INEC ya ajiye aikinsa.A karshe dai an kammala karbar zaben Jahohi 35 harda Abuja inda Dan takarar APC Bola Tinubu ya lashe wannan zabe da kuri’u 8,794,726. Sai Dan takarar PDP Atiku Abubakar ya samu kuri’u 6,984,520. Sai dan Takarar Labour Party Peter Obi ya samu kuri’u 6,101,533. Sai dan Takarar NNPC Rabiu Kwankwaso ya samu Kuri’u 1,496,687. Bola Tinubu ya lashe zabe a jahohi 12, Atiku Abubakar ya lashe jahohi 12, Peter Obi ya lashe Jahohi 11, Rabiu Kwankwaso ya lashe Jaha 1, yakama jahohi 36. Wasu daga cikin Mutanen Jami’iyar PDP suna zargin Rabiu Kwankwaso da hanasu lashe zabe wanda koda ace an hada kuri’un Rabiu Kwankwaso a bawa Atiku kuri’un bazasu kai na Bola Tinubu ba.

Nigeria: Thoughts on the PDP’s Nomination of Atiku Abubakar

Yesterday, 7 October, Nigeria’s former ruling party (the People’s Democratic Party or PDP) selected Atiku Abubakar as its nominee for the 2019 presidential elections. Abubakar served as Nigeria’s Vice President from 1999-2007, the first eight years of the PDP’s sixteen-year reign.

Abubakar has been a party’s nominee for president once before. Late in the second term of President Olusegun Obasanjo (also served 1999-2007), the two men fell out, partly over power struggles and partly over the issue of Obasanjo’s desire to overturn term limits and obtain a third term. In 2007, Abubakar was the Action Congress’ nominee. He placed third in the general election that year, taking 7% of the vote; the winner was Obasanjo’s hand-picked successor, Umaru Yar’Adua, while Muhammadu Buhari (Nigeria’s current president, elected in 2015) took second place. Atiku also eyed presidential runs in 2011 and 2015, although in 2015 he backed Buhari and the All Progressives Congress (APC). He then left the APC in 2017 and returned to the PDP.

Abubakar hails from Adamawa, in the far northeast. His political rise, ironically, was through the network of Yar’Adua’s older brother, the late Shehu Yar’Adua (1943-1997). In 1998, he won the gubernatorial election in Adamawa, but was quickly tapped as Obasanjo’s running mate. It’s worth mentioning here that S. Yar’Adua was Obasanjo’s second-in-command when the latter was military head of state from 1976-1979.

Returning to the present, Abubakar has defeated or outmaneuvered a slate of other prominent northern politicians, including various governors and senators to become the PDP nominee. These politicians include Senate President Bukola Saraki, of Kwara State; Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, of Kano; Governor Aminu Tambuwal, of Sokoto; and former Governor Sule Lamido, of Jigawa. Some of these governors only recently rejoined the PDP after several years in the APC and a transitional phase in the “Reformed APC.”

In victory, Abubakar is emphasizing the theme of “let’s get Nigeria working again.”

.@OfficialPDPNig, thank you for choosing me. This is a victory for all of us. The task to get Nigeria working again starts now. #NigeriaWillWork #LetsGetNigeriaWorkingAgain pic.twitter.com/Ud4wYv7e9P

— Atiku Abubakar (@atiku) October 7, 2018

Other candidates are pledging their support:

I congratulate our Presidential Candidate, Your Excellency, Alhaji @Atiku Abubakar, for your victory. You have stayed on course over the years and truly, you deserve this victory. #PDPPresidentialPrimaries

— Bukola Saraki (@bukolasaraki) October 7, 2018

As of now, I do not rate the PDP’s chances highly. In fact, they are exposed to some of the same dilemmas that confront the ruling APC: (1) only one person can be the nominee, which creates restlessness among other politicians and can lead to repeated party-switching; and (2) seniority, and money, weigh heavily in parties’ selections of presidential nominees, meaning that the nominees are not always the best candidates, nor are they always well positioned to promise genuine change to voters. The PDP had to pick a nominee, of course, but picking Abubakar may now make them vulnerable to some of the defections that have plagued the APC this year (and that plagued the PDP during the lead-up to the 2015 elections). Meanwhile, one wonders whether the prospect of choosing between Buhari and Abubakar will not leave many southerners indifferent, not just because both candidates are northerners but also because both men represent the class of military officers and their proteges that have dominated presidential politics for decades. Abubakar, moreover, seems to me to be someone with clout and influence but without widespread personal popularity. Buhari, despite his many weaknesses as a president and a candidate, still has a charisma that Abubakar lacks. If figures such as Kwankwaso, Saraki, Lamido, and Tambuwal remain with the PDP and successfully peel their states out of Buhari’s column, the PDP and Abubakar might be able to put together a winning map that includes parts of the north, the middle belt, and the southeast (and here I mean both the South East and the South South). But I’m a bit skeptical that that will happen.

 

 

 

Nigeria: Developments in Gubernatorial Contests in Osun, Kano, and Borno

Nigeria is in full-blown election mode in advance of the 16 February* 2019 presidential vote. Some of the most consequential political developments are taking place in the states. Here we look at three states: Osun, in the southwest, where a contentious gubernatorial election result is raising questions about ruling party interference and electoral officials’ biases; and two key northern states, Kano and Borno, where gubernatorial primaries are approaching.

Osun

Last week I wrote about the off-cycle gubernatorial election in Osun, which I believe is the last major election before the presidential vote. In Osun, incumbent governor (and member of the ruling All Progressives Congress or APC) Rauf Aregbesola is stepping down due to term limits, and so the race is between his chief of staff Gboyega Oyetola and Osun West Senator Ademola Adeleke. The latter represents the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which ruled Nigeria from 1999-2015.

Osun’s election took place on 22 September, but problems occurred at seven polling units. The election was re-run at those units on 27 September, and the returns from those units changed the overall outcome. After the 22 September results, the PDP’s Adeleke had a lead of 353 votes; after the 27 September results were added to the tallies, the APC’s Oyetola had a lead of some 482 votes and was declared the winner.

The close margin, and the reversal in the party’s fortunes, has led to outcry and concern not just from the PDP, but also from other observers. The Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room released a statement critical of the process and questioning the integrity of the final result. The Centre for Democracy and Development in West Africa’s statement similarly concluded (see second tweet in thread) “that the conduct of some key stakeholders clearly ran contrary to democratic norms & standards, as well as best practices in the conduct of credible elections.”

And here is part of the joint statement from the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States:

In contrast to our overall findings on the vote of September 22, we were concerned to witness widespread incidents of interference and intimidation of voters, journalists, and civil society observers by some political party supporters and security agencies.  Many of our findings mirror those of leading civil society groups that observed the election.

We commend the work of INEC leadership during both elections. But it is clear that the neutrality of the security services and responsible conduct by party agents, both inside and outside polling units, will be essential to ensure free, fair, credible and peaceful elections in 2019.

For both the APC and the Independent National Electoral Commission, then, there is skepticism in the air about their ability to conduct a successful and open process in February.

Kano

Back in August, I took a look at party shifts and realignments in Kano, the most populous state in northern Nigeria. Four prominent personalities are fighting for influence over the upcoming gubernatorial election. Most gubernatorial votes will take place (or are scheduled for) 2 March 2019. So here are the major players in Kano:

• Former Governor (and current Senator) Rabiu Kwankwaso (served 1999-2003, 2011-2015)
• Former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau (served 2003-2011)
• Current Governor Abdullahi Ganduje (took office 2015)
• Ex-Deputy Governor (as of August) Hafiz Abubakar (in office 2015-2018)

The latest big news is that Kwankwaso is backing Abba Yusuf to win the PDP gubernatorial nomination. Nigerian media (corporate and social) has been buzzing with the news that Yusuf is Kwankwaso’s son-in-law, although Kwankwaso himself has sought to correct (or spin?) the perception of nepotism by arguing that Yusuf is not married to one of his daughters but rather to someone from his extended family.

Kwankwaso also reportedly sought to arrange a game of musical chairs that would place Yusuf in the governor’s seat while placing Abubakar and long-time Shekarau ally Salihu Takai (who has, however, so far not followed Shekarau’s lead in defecting to the APC after Kwankwaso defected to the PDP)** into Senate seats. Here is a paraphrase of what Kwankwaso said about the proposal he made to Abubakar and Takai:

He also explained his reasons for not anointing the former Kano deputy governor, Prof Hafiz Abubakar, and a prominent politician in the state Alhaji Sagir Takai. He said he had known Prof Hafiz for over 40 years and has assisted him wherever necessary. The Prof was asked to contest for the Kano Central senate seat, a seat currently occupied by Sen Kwankwaso, in the coming 2019 election but he showed no interest. Likewise Sagir Takai had also been asked to contest for the seat of the southern Kano senatorial zone but had also declined to the arrangement, Sen Kwankwaso explained.

Within the PDP, then, you have a major contest for the nomination brewing – and then the nominee will face off against Ganduje, who remains in the APC and remains governor. Part of Kwankwaso’s ambition, of course, is to win the PDP nomination for the presidency and then bring Kano into his column in the general election.

Borno

Borno is the largest state in Nigeria by landmass and is the epicenter of the Boko Haram crisis. Incumbent Governor Kashim Shettima of the APC is term-limited and will likely seek the Borno Central Senate seat. As in other states, outgoing governors can wield tremendous influence in picking a successor (Shettima himself was hand-picked in 2011 by then-outgoing Governor Ali Modu Sheriff after Sheriff’s initial pick, Modu Gubio, was assassinated, likely by Boko Haram).

The big news out of Borno, then, is that Shettima has endorsed Babagana Zulum for the APC nomination. Zulum is a professor and the former state commissioner for reconstruction, rehabilitation and resettlement. (Here, if you are interested, are micro-bios of the other candidates.)

In Shettima’s endorsement statement, he focused on how Zulum’s professional experience will be crucial for Borno as it focuses on post-conflict reconstruction. But other parts of the statement allude, cryptically, to intra-party conflicts:

We cannot pretend not to be aware that an otherwise leader in our party, the APC, has deliberately created an unnecessary division within its membership in the state. This has led, to borrow from the satirical wisdom of Distinguished Senator Mohammed Ali Ndume, the existence of what is akin to a match between “home based players” in the majority and with local support and a minority “foreign based players”. Four months ago, when we received some fleeing leaders back into the APC fold, I had thought that those who choose to work against the majority have learned lessons. I had expected us to once again, fuse into one indivisible family so that together, we could give our party a direction and confront our opponents as a united force. How wrong I was! Perhaps, I ignored the common saying, that a leopard does not change its spots.

This is, of course, a reference to Shettima’s difficult relationship with Sheriff, who rejoined the APC in a May 2018 “peace deal” with Shettima. Since then, however, political conflict between the two has flared up again.

There is also a hint, in Shettima’s endorsement statement, that Zulum is something of a consensus candidate:

Of our 21 aspirants, if I were to support and hand pick what some people might call any of my closest boys as successor; I most certainly would go for Barrister Kaka Shehu Lawan or Adamu Lawan Zaufanjimba. If, on the other hand, public service is the only consideration, none of the aspirants can be more qualified than our elder statesman, Ambassador Baba Ahmed Jidda. If loyalty to political association is my main consideration, Distinguished Senator Abubakar Kyari has proved unalloyed loyalty to political association with me. If years of sincere and mutual friendship are my main consideration, Distinguished Senator Baba Kaka Bashir Garbai and Alhaji Mai Sheriff are my closest friends amongst all our aspirants. If the consideration is about humility and ability to carry people along, His Excellency Shettima Yuguda Dibal is legendary. I have relationship and so much respect for majority of the aspirants, the likes of Hon. Umara Kumalia, Makinta, name them. In fact, two of the aspirants, Mustapha Fannarambe and Umar Alkali are my relatives. All aspirants have divergent qualities. However, because of the situation we found ourselves, considerations for the next Governor of Borno State requires specific quips tailored to our needs for now.

Perhaps I am too cynical, but it also seems to me that Zulum may be a somewhat technocratic choice who lacks a constituency of his own and therefore may be seen as pliable by Shettima and his team. But I welcome readers’ thoughts and corrections on this point in particular.

So there you have it – three crucial states, one of whose governorships has been held for the APC in a potentially ugly way (Osun), one of whose governorships is increasingly contested (Kano), and one whose governorships may pass smoothly from incumbent to successor (Borno). In any case, these remain three states to watch, especially in terms of how gubernatorial politics interact with presidential politics in the lead-up to 2019.

*Delays are always possible, although the constitution requires that the next presidential term start by 29 May 2019.

**No one said this was easy to follow!

Nigeria’s Decamping Wave and Preparations for 2019: Spotlight on Kano

In Nigeria, a wave of “decamping” is occurring as politicians switch parties. I’ve written a little about it here and here, as have Matt Page and Lagun Akinloye. All of the party switches have national implications, but in this post I’d like to zoom in on some of the dynamics in one key state: Kano, the most populous state in northern Nigeria and the second-most populous state in the country as a whole. Kano’s decampings give a sense of just how complicated all this has become, and also point to some of the key actors who will shape the outcome in the state in the 2019 elections. Kano is probably a must-win state for incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari – if he loses in Kano, that might spell trouble elsewhere for him in the north, and if he starts to lose pieces of the north then his whole map falls apart.

To begin describing Kano State politics, we can point to two former governors: Rabiu Kwankwaso (served 1999-2003 and 2011-2015) and Ibrahim Shekarau (served 2003-2011). A long narrative on their rivalry can be found here. Both men have decamped in the past, but at the time of the 2015 elections Kwankwaso was in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Shekarau was in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). In 2015, the APC won the presidency and the PDP, Nigeria’s long-time ruling party, lost. In 2015, the APC also won the governorship of Kano, with Kwankwaso’s Deputy Governor Abdullahi Ganduje defeating Shekarau’s ally Salihu Takai. Kwankwaso himself moved to the Nigerian Senate, representing the Kano Central senatorial district.

This summer, Kwankwaso became part of a larger group of Senators, governors, and other politicians who left the APC to return to the PDP, the party to which many of them previously belonged. Some of these defections, and particularly Kwankwaso’s, reflect presidential aspirations. Kwankwaso has been seriously discussed as a major presidential contender since at least the 2015 cycle, so his aspirations are far from delusional.

Back in Kano, Kwankwaso’s decamping raises a few important questions. Is there room for both him and Shekarau in the PDP? Perhaps. And what about Ganduje, who will face re-election in 2019? So far, Ganduje is remaining in the APC, although his own deputy governor, Hafiz Abubakar, has already resigned (h/t Matt Page), and may well defect to the PDP. Does Kwankwaso have the upper hand over Ganduje? Or does the outcome of 2019 in Kano come down to which two of the state’s three past and present governors (Kwankwaso, Shekarau, Ganduje) align against the third, given “rumours that Kwankwaso and Ganduje are struggling to win the heart of Shekarau”? And what does any of this mean for Takai, already being floated unofficially (Hausa) as a candidate? Don’t think that having lost a few elections (2011 to Kwankwaso, 2015 to Ganduje) counts someone out – just ask Buhari, for whom the fourth time was the charm.

Far be it from me to say what all this means. But it’s interesting to watch the consequential knock-on effects of national politicians’ decisions and decampings as they reverberate down through the political system, compelling deputy governors, state legislators, and other figures to make their own decisions. The wave of decampings, then, is throwing into relief the various networks and rivalries that make up Nigerian politics. The struggles within the states also highlight that perennial feature of politics, particularly in systems with term limits – the “godfathers,” no matter how formidable they may be, never have complete control over their hand-picked successors, and the resulting rivalries can have major consequences for party unity.

 

World Politics Review Article on Nigeria’s 2019 Elections

Yesterday I had a piece out with World Politics Review, looking at the approaching February/March 2019 elections through the lens of intra-elite shifts and some of Nigeria’s multi-faceted problems. The piece amplifies some of the themes from this post, and it would be well worth reading Matt Page’s latest for Quartz, which deals with some of the same developments.

As always, comments welcome below.

Nigeria: Six Important New Governors

Nigeria got a new president, Muhammadu Buhari, on May 29, but also a large slate of new governors (many incumbents from the last cycle faced term limits). Here are six key figures. I almost wrote “newcomers,” but all of them have previously held major state or federal offices. Five of these governors belong to the current ruling party, the All Progressives Congress or APC; one belongs to the former ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party or PDP.

1. Akinwunmi Ambode (Lagos): Lagos is the most populous state in Nigeria and the country’s main commercial center. Ambode represents continuity with Lagos’ previous two governors, Babatunde Fashola (2007-2015) and Bola Tinubu (1999-2007), both of whom are influential APC leaders, especially Tinubu. An accountant by training, Ambode served as Tinubu’s accountant general. He has pledged to reduce government expenses but has also said he will not be “reinventing the wheel.” His official biography is here.
2. Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano): Kano is the most populous state in northern Nigeria, the second most populous state overall, and the major commercial hub of the north. Like Ambode in Lagos, Ganduje represents continuity in Kano, having served as deputy to his predecessor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who has moved on to the Senate. Ganduje and Kwankwaso belong to the APC, in which Kwankwaso may prove to be an important northern voice, and perhaps Ganduje as well. Kwankwaso has left Ganduje with a debt liability of $1.9 billion (379 billion naira). Ganduje has pledged to increase government revenues and boost security in the state, which has sometimes been a target for Boko Haram.
3. Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna): Kaduna is a northern state with both economic and political importance, including for its tragic and divisive history of inter-communal conflicts. Nasir El-Rufai, a former cabinet minister (for the Federal Capital Territory) and current APC leader, defeated a PDP incumbent. El-Rufai has already won acclaim for halving his and his deputy’s salaries. However, his inauguration was marked by an incident where young protesters threw rocks and other objects at the Emir of Zaria and the state’s chief judge, “accus[ing] them of colluding with the previous administration of Governor Ramalan Yero to plunder the resources of the state.” The inauguration unrest is a reminder of the difficulties El-Rufai may face in promoting unity and peace in Kaduna.
4. Simon Lalong (Plateau): Plateau is another northern state with complex histories of inter-communal conflict. Lalong, a former Plateau State House of Assembly Speaker who now belongs to the APC, defeated the PDP’s candidate in an open race. Lalong has begun making appointments, which will be closely scrutinized for how they do or do not represent the state’s diversity.
5. Nyesom Wike (Rivers): Rivers is a key state in the oil-producing Niger Delta region and home to Port Harcourt, a regional economic center. Wike, of the PDP, has wrested Rivers back from the APC. Former Governor Rotimi Amaechi defected from the PDP to the APC in 2013, but was unable to pass power to his chosen successor. A lawyer by training, Wike was Amaechi’s chief of staff during the latter’s first term (2007-2011), but chose to remain with the PDP. As governor, Wike will have the challenge of ruling a politically turbulent state during a time of uncertainty, especially given that the amnesty for former Niger Delta militants may end this year, or be transformed into a new program. Wike will also have the opportunity to play a major role in rebuilding and reshaping the PDP, which has preserved a major base in the Delta and elsewhere in the southeastern part of Nigeria.
6. Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto): Tambuwal, who defected from the PDP to the APC in October 2014, was most recently Speaker of the House in the National Assembly. One of the most prominent northern politicians, he is now governor of a state with political, economic, and symbolic importance – the state is the seat of the Sultan of Sokoto, Nigeria’s pre-eminent hereditary Muslim ruler. Tambuwal has emphasized the theme of continuity with his predecessor, the APC’s Aliyu Wamakko, but has also promised redoubled efforts on job creation, agricultural development, attracting investment, and building infrastructure. Tambuwal will remain a major leader in the APC: rumors already circulate of a struggle between him and Tinubu to choose the next Speaker.