Guinea: Will Camara Return?

A few days ago I was surmising that international pressure on Guinea might freeze (former?) military leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara out of power and convince caretaker leader General Sekouba Konate to pursue a democratic transition back to civilian rule. But with Camara out of his Moroccan sickbed and on the move, everything is up for grabs again.

To make a joke that is in no way intended to make light of the suffering of people in Guinea, if the US is the Jay-Z of international politics, then Camara, to adjust the metaphor somewhat, is The Game of West African strongmen – it’ll take more than a bullet in the head to hold him back.

After convalescing for more than a month in Rabat, Camara arrived in Burkina Faso on Tuesday. There he is the guest of the government of President Blaise Compaore, who not coincidentally is the lead mediator for the Guinean crisis on behalf of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Will Camara go back to Guinea? Western powers wanted him to stay away, a message French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner reiterated to Compaore on a visit to Burkina Faso earlier this week. West African leaders seem more ambivalent about Camara – Xinhua (linked above) reports that “according to ECOWAS sources, Compaore had asked France to consider Camara in Guinea’s transition period, but the proposal was rejected by the French top diplomat.”

In any case, as Xinhua says, Camara’s return to West Africa has in and of itself raised issues that go beyond whether he returns to Guinea or not. In particular, some analysts fear that hardcore Camara loyalists and some members of his ethnic group might resort to violence if he does not return, potentially touching off a civil war.

With those concerns looming large, Camara’s presence in Burkina has already produced a lot of activity. Compaore has held “emergency talks” with Camara and Konate. As of this week, the latter had “made it clear that he wants to steer Guinea towards elections and has said the junta will accept an opposition prime minister” but “Ba Ouri, deputy leader of the United Democratic Forces, told the BBC that ‘agitators’ in Capt Camara’s entourage were trying to use him to pursue their own interests.” The demands for Camara’s return intensified when the Guinean junta released a statement saying, “We encourage and ask for the quick return of Capt Moussa Dadis Camara to Conakry. We are recommending that Gen Sekouba Konate bring him back.”

Some questions remain about the extent of Camara’s recovery, but Reuters reports that Camara himself also wants to go back to Guinea.

Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, Guinea’s wounded junta leader feels he was tricked into taking a flight to Burkina Faso instead of going back to Guinea and is determined to get home, officials said on Thursday.

[…]

“Dadis Camara understood that he would be getting off the plane in (Guinea’s capital) Conakry and was shocked when it was made clear that he would have to stay in Ouagadougou,” a senior Burkinabe official told Reuters, asking not to be named.

[…]

The Burkinabe official said Camara still wanted to return to Guinea but played down prospects of an imminent homecoming.

I honestly have no good sense of what might happen now. It is tempting to say that events are edging toward permitting Camara’s return, but there are very powerful people working hard to prevent that from happening. If he does return, though, it will be a blow to the power and prestige of France and the US in West Africa.