Somalia: Battle for Mogadishu?

I have seen less news recently about struggles between al Shabab, Hizbul Islam, and Ahlu Sunna for control of towns in southern Somalia, and I have seen more news about fighting in Mogadishu. Here’s my summary:

As the Transitional Federal Government prepares for an assault on al Shabab in Mogadishu, residents are fleeing (many were already gone) and shelling has begun claiming casualties. Both government and al Shabab spokesmen are talking tough, but both sides also seem a touch uncertain. For its part, al Shabab “has started withdrawing all its weapons, battle vehicles and fighters from Mogadishu’s main Bakara Market, which has been their stronghold since the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops.”

Meanwhile, logistical difficulties have delayed the planned government offensive.

Many countries have pledged funds for Somalia’s security services but are reluctant to release money until they are sure paychecks will not be stolen by commanders. Other militias allied to the government want their slice of the cash, but are reluctant to sign up to a central command.

The lack of funds has hurt troops.

One soldier, Osman Mohamed Dalaal, a recruit at Camp Jizira in Mogadishu, where the bulk of the pro-government fighters are staying, told The Associated Press the men there were getting only two meals a day and that morale was low because they were not regularly paid.

A security official and a diplomat told the AP that around 500 fighters who were trained in Djibouti were also in the camp, although two diplomats said some of the men needed further training and they all needed regular pay and more equipment. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to the media.

[…]Even if the offensive succeeds, it is unclear if the government can hold the territory takes or use its position to seek a more durable political solution to the conflict.

Christian Science Monitor argues that military success for the Somali government, even temporary success, could “finally bring President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed some badly needed legitimacy” and induce “moderates” in the Islamist rebel ranks to engage in political negotiations with the government. But the offensive, particularly as rumors of Kenyan involvement swirl, al Shabab extends its jihad to include Kenya, and foreign fighters continue to play a major role in the conflict, could also risk widening the war beyond Somalia’s borders.

We’ll have to see what happens. Hopefully civilians can get out of harm’s way before the peak fighting hits.