Initial International Reactions to Sudan Elections

Despite the criticism of Sudan’s elections coming from many corners, the international community does not have a unified perspective about the fairness of the vote or what to do next.

A White House statement yesterday called the elections “an essential step” in the peace process but also condemned “serious irregularities.” The statement did not give much insight into what Washington’s policy will be in the mid-term, except for continuing to support the CPA. Mark Goldberg at UN Dispatch probably hits the mark when he says, “The statement seems to show that the White House is trying to accommodate the competing visions for Sudan policy that have been duking it out in the inter-agency process.” Goldberg argues that the message is incoherent and risks a policy failure. That could be right too. Still, taking steps like refusing to recognize Bashir could easily backfire.

China, for its part, “has praised Sudan’s first multi-party elections in 24 years as a ‘success’ a day after the United States criticized the vote as neither free nor fair.” Does Sudan need China more than it needs the US? If so, Beijing’s view on the elections will count for more than Washington’s.

International observers have offered mixed appraisals of the vote, with the Carter and the EU citing irregularities and the AU and the Arab League giving the elections a rating of “free and fair.” Opposition groups in Northern Sudan have taken note of these international criticisms of the vote and plan to use them as ammunition against Bashir. Opposition leaders say they are planning protests, which is something to keep an eye on – that could turn ugly. In the South, the ruling SPLM has come under international criticism itself. Reports surfaced that the SPLM pledged to accept the results of the elections, but an SPLM spokesman denied them.

With all the major international and domestic players on different pages, how will the script go from here? Rumors of fraud are circulating, and Bashir appears headed for a massive victory. We’ll see whether the reactions from international players change, but if policies in Washington, Beijing, and Brussels stay the same it looks like Chinese approval and Western desires not to rock the boat in advance of the 2011 referendum will let Bashir claim re-election without much problem, at least internationally.

Here are two videos on the elections, one from NTV Kenya and one from Al Jazeera English:

AJE:

Sudan Elections Update: Process Issues, SPLM Politics

Sudan will hold elections in less than three weeks, and uncertainties regarding both process and politics remain.

First, US groups are expressing concerns about security and fairness. The Carter Center recently stated that “logistical preparations are straining the limited capacity of the [National Elections Commission]. With a series of delays and changes in polling procedures,” their statement continued, “a minor delay in polling for operational purposes may be required.” Human Rights Watch has said that “both the Government of National Unity and the Government of South Sudan are violating rights and restricting freedoms critical to a fair poll, including freedoms of expression and of assembly.”

These statements prompted a harsh response from President Omar al-Bashir:

Al-Bashir has threatened to kick out foreign election monitors, after they suggested next month’s vote should be delayed.

Mr Bashir said if the observers intervened in Sudan’s affairs, “we will cut off their fingers and crush them under our shoes”.

Second, intense campaigning in North and South Sudan has revealed something about the strengths and weaknesses of the different parties involved. VOA argues that for the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in the South,

Salva Kiir, President of South Sudan

[The] main threat in the polls comes not from without, but within.  A heavily-criticized behind-closed-doors party nomination process has pushed disgruntled party politicians into declaring themselves independent candidates for the region’s governorships.  Some, local analysts say, could win.

Internal SPLM rivalries may not hurt the party much in this election, but could loom larger during the referendum on Southern independence – and after.

Analysts say the glue holding the party together remains the region’s quest for self-determination, fueled by deep resentment against the country’s northern rulers.  Many think the real test for southerners will arise in the possible event the region achieves political separation, when many fear the region could begin fragmenting into competing interests.

The former rebels are vulnerable to inner strife, as indicated by the splinter independent candidates.  Deep tribal tensions simmer under the region’s political surface, and the region carries a long history of bloody ethnic-based divisions.

Meanwhile, arrests of opposition activists continue in the North. It’s hard for me to tell how much support some of these opposition groups have, but repeated arrests and protests contribute to a tense pre-election atmosphere.

For more on process issues, see this post at Making Sense of Sudan.