Roundup of Some Recent Reports on the Sahel and Nigeria – 13 January 2023

Delina Goxho and Selina Daugalies, “European Aphasia in the Sahel: Stabilising How?” Konrad Adenaur Stiftung, 5 December 2022.

Jonathan Guiffard, “Security Collapse in Mali and Burkina Faso: What Implications? – Anticipating the Crisis Through the Eyes of Jihadists,” Institut Montaigne, 11 January 2023.

Maxime Audinet and Emmanuel Dreyfus, “A Foreign Policy by Proxies? The Two Sides of Russia’s Presence in Mali,” IRSEM, September 2022 (updated January 2023).

Kingsley Madueke, “Driving Destruction: Cattle Rustling and Instability in Nigeria,” Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 11 January 2023. An excerpt:

This report focuses on Zamfara and Plateau states, where cattle rustling has fuelled large-scale violence and instability over the past decade. The report also explores the concerning southward diffusion of cattle rustling, with an emphasis on Kwara and Oyo states. While some underlying causes of cattle rustling cut across regions, this research highlights that local drivers of cattle rustling and instability are often distinct and therefore require context-specific responses.

Very Quick Notes on the September 29 G5 Sahel-MINUSMA-European Union Meeting in Nouakchott

On September 29, the G5 Sahel, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), and the European Union (EU) met in Mauritania’s capital Nouakchott. This was a coordination meeting for supporting the G5 Sahel’s Joint Force, which draws battalions from Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. The meeting does not appear to have produced any dramatic news.

I’m a bit buried with work this week, so here are just a few links and notes:

  • The meeting was held in the context of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2531 (available here). Among other things, the resolution (p. 11, paragraph 30) “Requests the Secretary-General to ensure adequate coordination, exchange of information and, when applicable, support, within their respective mandates and through existing mechanisms, between MINUSMA, the MDSF [Malian Defense and Security Forces], the FC-G5S [G5 Sahel Joint Force], the French Forces and the European Union missions in Mali, and further requests MINUSMA to convene regular meetings of the Instance de Coordination au Mali as the main platform for such coordination, exchange of information and support.”
  • Here is MINUSMA’s short press release (French) on the coordination meeting.
  • Here is a longer readout (French) from the G5 Sahel. Again, no major news from what I can see.
  • Brief press coverage from RFI (French).

And a few photographs, via Twitter:

Africa News Roundup: South Sudanese Oil, ECOWAS Meeting in Mali, Flooding in Nigeria, and More

AP: “South Sudan ordered oil companies to restart production Thursday and officials said oil export could resume in about 90 days, ending a nearly nine-month shutdown following a dispute with Sudan over borders and oil.”

IRIN with a piece that is worth thinking about in the context of how the Islamist coalition in northern Mali works to attract support:

Hundreds of displaced northerners in southern Mali are risking life under Sharia law to return home, lured by the prospect of jobs, free water and electricity, and in some parts, relatively cheaper food, Malians in the north and south told IRIN.
Islamist groups have removed taxes on many basic goods, say traders in the region, provide erratic electricity and water services at no charge, and have fixed the price of some basic foods. They are also paying youths to join their ranks, as talk of intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) mounts.

A major meeting of ECOWAS, the African Union, the European Union, and the United Nations took place in Bamako yesterday.

Lagun Akinloye on recent flooding in Nigeria.

Garowe writes that talks between the Ethiopian government and the rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front have hit “deadlock.”

The United Nations Monitoring Group on Somalia and others have raised the possibility that al Shabab, now that its major strongholds in southern Somalia have fallen to African Union forces, may seek to establish more of a presence in Puntland. The BBC reports on a seizure of weapons imported into Puntland that were apparently meant for al Shabab.

Yesterday I wrote about border issues in Niger, but neglected to mention that this week Niger and Burkina Faso were at the International Court of Justice to settle a border dispute. It’s worth noting how colonial legacies still come into play: “During the hearings, Burkina Faso explained that the delimitation of the disputed part should be based on a 1927 French colonial decree, when both countries were part of French West Africa, while Niger contended that the decree was not precise enough to define the frontier in certain areas and asked the Court to delimit it by using a 1960 map of the French Institut Géographique as adjusted with factual evidence of territorial sovereignty.”

What else is happening?

American, EU, French Statements on Senegalese Elections/Candidacy of President Abdoulaye Wade

On Friday, Senegal’s constitutional court ruled that incumbent President Abdoulaye Wade, who will soon complete his second term, is eligible to run in the country’s February 26 presidential elections. The announcement, though expected, came in the context of long-standing tensions between Wade and large segments of the country’s urban youth, who want the president to step down. On Friday youth rioted in Dakar, the capital.

Wade’s candidacy has also drawn negative reactions from abroad, notably from Washington. Yesterday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns spoke to journalists in Addis Ababa, and cast doubt on the wisdom of Wade’s current path:

We are concerned that the decision by President Wade to seek a third term … could jeopardise the decades-long record that Senegal has built up on the continent for democracy, democratic development and political stability…We hope very much that the political process will be a peaceful one and it will allow for the free active participation of all Senegalese.

Burns’ comments were matched by those of Victoria Nuland, a State Department spokeswoman, at a press briefing yesterday:

QUESTION: Do you have any reaction about the Senegal situation, about Wade running for a third bid for presidential?

MS. NULAND: Well, as you know, the Senegalese constitutional court has now confirmed the validity of 14 candidates running for president, including President Wade. Our own view, while we respect the process, the political and legal process in Senegal, the fact that he’s now been cleared to run, our message to him remains the same: that the statesmanly-like thing to do would be to cede to the next generation, and we think that would be better.

And with regard to the reference to Museveni last week, Matt, I am reliably told that we did also suggest to him that he allow the next generation to —

QUESTION: Yes. And he didn’t, and now he’s your best friend.

MS. NULAND: Well, we work —

QUESTION: So what’s wrong with – now what’s wrong with it in Senegal?

MS. NULAND: We work with the government the people elect. But again, our view is that Senegalese democracy is strong enough to move to the next generation.

European countries’ statements have not been as strong as Washington’s, but it is clear that the European Union and former colonial power France are also concerned about the situation. The former has questioned the constitutional court’s decision to bar singer Youssou N’dour from running in the elections:

Thijs Berman, the head of the EU election observer mission, urged the council, which meets on Sunday to hear appeals, to release the reasons for its decisions, both for candidates whose bids have been accepted and for those who have been rejected.

“A candidate such as Youssou N’Dour, who had thousands of signatures backing his bid rejected, should have access to the files in order to look closely at why they were rejected, that is important,” Berman said, speaking on French public radio RFI.

“For now we have the decisions but we don’t have the motivations. I think that not only each of the candidates but also every citizen of Senegal has a right to know,” Berman said. “It is only by understanding the reasons of the Constitutional Council that the decision could be accepted.”

France, for its part (see statement in French here), has so far merely stated that it is following the process closely and that it hopes “all opinions, in their diversity, can be expressed on the occasion of this presidential election.” The French government also affirmed its commitment to democratic principles, including the riot of peaceful assembly.

Washington, Brussels, and Paris are obviously worried about what the next month, and the outcome of the elections themselves, will bring for Senegal.

On a final note, the exchange between Ms. Nuland and the journalist above – the reference to Museveni in particular – is interesting, although the conversation did not play out in full. What do you think? Does the example of Museveni give Wade comfort that even if foreign powers wish he would step aside, they will continue to work with him even if he does not?