Nigeria’s Election Shows the Country Is Majority Muslim – a Guest Post by Ismail Hashim

Editor’s Note: The below is a guest post by my colleague Ibrahim Hashim. He argues that the victory of a “Muslim-Muslim” ticket in Nigeria’s recent presidential election is a strong indication that the country’s population, rather than being approximately half Muslim and half Christian, is in fact majority Muslim. For my own part, I think Nigeria is quite likely a Muslim-majority country, and I think one can reach that conclusion based simply upon the broadly accepted ideas that the north has an overwhelming Muslim majority while the southwest has a considerable number of Muslims living there. Ismail also points to key demographic trends, namely high birthrates among Nigerian Muslims, especially in the north. I differ somewhat with Ismail when it comes to the question of whether the election results give us much of a sense of the country’s wider religious demography (I think considerable fraud likely occurred) – but I agree with him when it comes to the sense that the victory of the “Muslim-Muslim ticket” is a marker of some underlying demographic shifts. Meanwhile, Ismail’s remarks about what Islam may mean (or not mean) to President-Elect Bola Tinubu are very apt – and the empowerment of Tinubu as an individual does not necessarily mean that Nigerian Muslims have been empowered as a group. – Alex

At first, I was not comfortable with the idea of a “Muslim-Muslim ticket,” which the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party had issued to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim Shettima as its presidential candidate and running mate respectively. I held this view for several reasons some of which were equally articulated by various analysts, commentators and opinion writers. Like many thousands of Nigerians, particularly Muslims, I also believed that the Muslim-Muslim ticket was a necessary, expedient winning strategy rather than an intrepid move toward the triumph of Islam in a pluralistic country that has been suffering from demographic competition.

In 2015, when Muhammadu Buhari became the flagbearer of the APC, there were indications that Tinubu (a major stakeholder in the political merger that culminated in the sweeping victories of the APC during the 2015 elections) had a strong zest to be picked by Buhari as the latter’s running mate. But the old general refused to do so, obviously to carry along Christians and canvass their support and secure their votes; no farsighted politician would risk hurting the sensibilities of even a small number of voters let alone a big population that once claimed to possess demographic supremacy in the country’s entire population. A Muslim-Muslim presidency was thought – by the Christian population but in fact by many Muslims as well – to be a permanent impossibility in Nigeria’s political arena.

Christians, who are a minority in Nigeria as has been proven now beyond doubt, had been regarding a Muslim-Muslim presidency as a unique Muslim utopian vision and a fruitless attempt of flying a kite either to see how high it would go in the sky or to gauge the direction of the wind. Thus, Nigerian Christians never hid their opposition to the development and spared no effort to fight the bid. In 2023, churches became platforms for homilies on Christian unity and for the mobilization of support and strong, formidable religious support and solidarity in favour of the Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi, the only Christian who contested against three Muslims (Tinubu; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso) in the race for the highest political office in the land. The defeat of Peter Obi as portrayed in the milieu of Christians was interpreted as the fall of the rising Christendom and the failure of the Christian cause in Nigeria. Therefore, not minding the huge irrecoverable costs of putting their eggs in one basket, Christians gathered their voting strength on their own candidate and wholeheartedly threw their support to Peter Obi.

Although like their Christian counterparts, Muslims had also used religious infrastructure to mobilize support for Tinubu and framed casting votes to him as a “political Jihad,” it was understandably impractical since Muslim votes must be inevitably split between the two other contenders, Atiku of the People’s Democratic Party and Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party. After all, many northerners were yet skeptical of Tinubu’s nationalism and cosmopolitanism, and he was certainly viewed in many quarters as an ethnic champion and a pursuer of Yoruba agenda, rather than as a devout Muslim. Added to this, the fact that Tinubu’s wife (and an acclaimed pastor for that matter) and the majority (if not all) of his children are said to be Christians, some northern Muslims felt that Tinubu’s victory should in some form be considered as the triumph of Christians.

In the run-up to the 2023 presidential election, the Muslim society in northern Nigeria which, as always, largely relies on the discourses of the clerical establishment in the region, became extremely divided as which of the three candidates Muslims should support. Scholars who were loyalists to northern governors, some of whom were/are among their political appointees, had preached in favor of Tinubu and cast his election as a necessity that Muslims must accept. Other scholars, most of whom were independent and largely young, openly campaigned for Atiku and warned northerners against voting for someone outside their region. The majority of scholars, however, seemed to take a neutral position and advised that Muslims could vote any of the three candidates since each of them is a Muslim. Ironically, this neutral position was popularized and voiced loudly by the outspoken Izala, the Salafi group which in the past used to explicitly campaign for Buhari and make it a religious obligation upon all Muslims to vote for the old general. It appears that Izala decided this time not to openly side with any of the candidates since some people have been launching attacks on the group for asking them to vote for Buhari, but then the group failed to criticize Buhari’s weak leadership. It was even argued that Izala (whose top figures are friends and loyalists to some northern governors) was inwardly supporting Tinubu’s candidacy but it was afraid of the protest and condemnation of its followers and the larger Muslim public. Thus, it decided to exhibit outward neutrality.

Ultimately, the Muslim-Muslim ticket carried the day and, I would argue, reflects Muslims’ numerical majority in Nigeria. And here is why:

Out of 23,377,466 total valid votes cast, 17,275,933 represent the voting strength of Muslims who divided their votes for the three Muslim candidates. No analysis of the results of this election can ignore the possibility of overlaps of votes between Muslims and Christians in favor of each of these three candidates. But cross-over voting was arguably minimal and each candidate might have likely gained from it – the Muslims who crossed over to vote for Obi, and the Christians who crossed over to vote for Tinubu and Atiku, may have partly canceled each other out. So the outcomes of the elections have solidly reflected the religious affiliation and sociopolitical orientation of the voting population. After all the mobilizations in churches and social media platforms, including the voluminous circulars disseminated to all chapels and chapters by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and sister bodies, the results of the election show that Peter Obi had merely scored 6,101,533, less than 27 percent of the whole valid votes cast.

The results of polls, of course, do not map precisely onto the demographics of Nigeria’s population as a whole; reported turnout was low, and there were accusations of fraud, although the seriousness of these accusations has been debated. Yet election results are crucial for arriving at some useful hints about the country’s overall religious demography. The basic fact is that Nigerian Muslims tend to have more children than other groups in the country. Many factors have combined to contribute to the rapid increase of Muslims and give them numerical edge over their counterparts. The Muslims, who still retain the age-old culture of growing extended families, have a prevailing polygamous lifestyle and have not, to a large extent, assimilated to the western childbearing orientation. Research has shown that Muslim women have a higher fertility rate than non-Muslim women. According to the data of the Nigeria‘s National Population Commission, as of 2008, birthrates per woman in the North West and the North East – heavily Muslim-majority zones – stood as 7.3 and 7.2 respectively, while in the South it was less than 5 children per woman.

In terms of how demography plays out in politics, Nigeria’s democracy has since 1999 been characterized by zoning and rotation between the two major regions and religions (North and South and Islam and Christianity). And although many politicians have adopted zoning and rotation in the spirit of carrying everyone along, rotation based on faith is not necessarily equitable or representative vis-à-vis the population. For instance, Muslims in Gombe State account for about 75 percent of the population yet the state has been electing a Muslim and Christian governor and deputy governor for over two decades. In Kaduna State, until 2019 when Governor Nasir El-Rufai chose a Muslim deputy governor, the state has been pairing a Muslim and Christian for these two powerful ranks. Other examples can be confidently cited and it is Muslims who make the most concessions. In states like Plateau and Benue, however, which although having a sizable population of Muslims (perhaps more than 40% in Plateau and more than 25% in Benue), no Muslim has ever been selected as deputy governor since the return of the present democratic dispensation in 1999. 

Politicians do not toy with the matter of votes, but they also adapt to changing political realities and sometimes the calculations about what makes for electability in one election no longer apply in the next contest. 2023, in other words, is not 2015. The 2023 presidential election will go down in history as a solid testimony establishing the fact that Muslims can determine their political fate and can win election of the highest political office in the land without needing to have a Christian on the ticket. And going by the case study of Plateau and Benue states, one may be justified if he alleges that had it been that it were Christians who possessed similar numerical strength of Muslims, no one could guarantee that they would concede the position of vice president to the Muslims.

Meanwhile, the effects of the election continue to reverberate in the country. Many Muslim northerners who did not vote for Tinubu are now identifying with his success. I suspect that there are two major reasons for this. One is that the opposition of Nigeria’s Christians for the Muslim-Muslim presidency is conversely reawakening Muslims to consider the election as a political triumph of Islam. Secondly, if not because Christians are counting the outcomes of the election as a sheer loss based on faith grounds, Nigerians are jubilating that the election is marking the end of Buhari’s leadership and putting a halt to the pains of Nigerians over his draconian policies. After all, there are solid indications that the Naira redesign policy will either be eradicated completely or chiefly reviewed once Buhari is gone.

Despite the foregoing arguments, a question that may yet beg for an answer is, does the faith of a president necessarily ensure that his coreligionists will enjoy the dividends of democracy better than those with whom he does not share his faith? No clear-cut answers can be supplied to this question. Tinubu, ironically, appears to be only a nominal Muslim, as shown by his seeming inability to correctly recite or translate the first chapter of the Qur’an – a chapter whose recitation is essential to the correct performance of daily prayers. Yet Tinubu has, by picking a Muslim as his running mate, audaciously accomplished what many other Muslim politicians could never mull over, let alone try. If Tinubu’s victory points to Muslims’ demographic majority, that victory does not necessarily mean that Islamic values will now be more thoroughly represented in the land’s high office.

Ismail wrote from Souss, Southern Morocco, and can be reached at ismailiiit18@gmail.com.

Bayan Zaben Gwamna 18 ga Watan March…Nigeria Elections Diary: A View from Kano on the Gubernatorial Elections by Mallam Usman Aliyu (in Hausa)

Earlier this month, I posted Mallam Usman Aliyu’s Hausa-language Nigeria elections diary (a work I commissioned for this blog). Below is Mallam Usman’s follow-up, treating the gubernatorial elections held on March 18 in 28 of Nigeria’s 36 states. One major noteworthy result of the gubernatorial election was the decisive victory in Kano by the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), headed by former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. Mallam Usman discusses the dynamics in Kano, noting in particular the collapse of the People’s Democracy Party (PDP) there, and gives a detailed account of how voting unfolded, including citizens’ close scrutiny of the collation process.

BAYAN ZABEN GWAMNA 18 GA WATAN MARCH

A Ranar Asabar 18 ga watan March 2023 aka gabatar da babban zaben Gwamnoni a Jihar Kano dama kasa baki daya.

Alhamdulillah anyi zabe lafiya kamar yadda akayi ta addu’a duk da an samu matsaloli a wasu gurare kadan amma abin farin cikin shine ba’a samu asarar rayuka ba saidai an fasa akwatin zabe a gurare wasu guraren kuma an samu aringizon kuri’a (over voting) wanda hakan yasa aka soke zaben wasu akwatuna yayinda kuma wasu kananun hukumomi za’a sake zabe sakamakon kuri’un da aka soke yawansu ya huce na tazarar da aka samu tsakanin wanda yayi nasara da kuma wanda ya biyo baya.

Tabbas zaben 2023 ya kafa wani tarihi ko ace yazo da wani salo na musamman da ba’a taba ganinsu a zabukan da suka huce ba. Misali fitowar da mutane sukayi wannan zabe musamman mata adadin mutanen da suka kada kuri’a a wannan zabe yafi adadin wanda suka kada kuri’a a zaben shugaban kasa da sanata, duk da anyi barazana sosai da kuma hasashen za’a iya samun tashin-tashina a wannan zabe amma cikin hukuncin Ubangiji da kuma addu’o’i komai yazo da sauki. Salon da wannan zabe yazo dashi shine Jam’iya mai mulki tayi amfani da wasu abubuwa domin bawa masu zabe su zabesu kamar Atampa, Shadda, Taliya, Omo da sauransu abin mamakin shine daga farkon zabe wannan abubuwa da suke rabawa sunyi tasiri matuka domin mutane da yawa sun zabesu saboda dalilin wannan abubuwa da suke bayarwa yayinda wasu kuma suna karba amma sai su zabi wanda sukeso, masu dabara a ciki kuma sai suke amfani da idan kinaso ko kanaso idan layi yazo kanka zasu Hada ka da agent dinsu ka zaba a gabansu sannan idan ka fito su baka wata takarda mai kamar pass sannan su fadamaka inda zakaje ka karbi kayanka.

Daga fara zabe zuwa wajen 11 na rana akwatuna da dama jam’iya mai mulki ce akan gaba ciki harda akwatin da nayi zabe amma daga lokacin da jama’a suka fahimci kayan da ake rabawa fa sun kare sai labari yasha ban-ban sai kowa ya koma yana zabar raayinsa wanda hakan ya bawa jam’iya adawa damar lashe zabe a kaso 80 cikin 100 na akwatunan Birnin Kano da kewaye.

Babban abin mamaki da kuma daukar hankali a wannan zaben shine yadda Alumma bayan sunyi zabe basu tafi gidajensu ba suka tsare kuri’arsu kuma suka raka akwatunansu har Collation Centre, na fara mamaki tun daga lokacin da ake raba Ma’aikatan zabe zuwa guraren da zasuyi aiki domin karfe 3 na dare amma jama’ar gari ne suke tsare da maaikatan zabe wasu a machine wasu a mota wasu ma a kafa. Dan motar da yawancin maaikatan suka hau zuwa voting centres domin kada kuria babu jami’in tsaro a ciki haka mutanen gari suka raka su kuma suka jira aka raba har akwatin da zamuyi zabe yayinda da yawa daga cikin masu zabe a akwatuna suka rike kayan aiki tare da basu abunda zasu karya kafin a fara aiki.

An samu nasara sosai a wannan zaben wajen fara zabe da wuri ba kamar zaben daya gabata ba domin karfe 7:25 yawancin maaikatan suka isa inda akwatunsu yake saida 8:30 tayi sannan suka fara aiki hakan ya bada nasarar gama zabe da wuri a gurare da dama duk da jama’a sun fito da yawa fiye da zaben daya gabata amma wasu guraren karfe 12, wasu 1 sun kammala zabensu, hukumar shirya zabe ta INEC tayi kokari matuka wajen fara komai akan lokaci kuma ta tsara komai na aikin zabe, sannan matsalolin da aka samu da na’urar tantancewa (BVAS) a zaben daya gabata ko kadan ba’a sameta a wannan zaben ba, sannan korafin da agents sukayi a zaben daya gabata na rashin dora sakamakon zabe a website na INEC wannan zaben kowane akwati saida aka dora zaben immediately bayan kammalawa hakan yasa mutane suka fara ganin sakamakon zabe tun kafin tafiya tayi nisa, wannan dalilai sukasa mutane da dama kama daga ma’aikatan zabe zuwa alummar gari suke ganin ba’a taba yin sahihin zabe a Nigeria kamar wannan zabe na Ranar 18 ga Watan March, an samu tsaro sosai wanda haka yayi maganin masu yunkurin tada hankali a guraren zabe.

Kananun jam’iyu sun bada mamaki ciki harda jam’iyar data lashe wannan zabe ta NNPP kasancewar sabuwar jam’iya ce da batafi watanni 8 ba amma tayi nasarar lashe zabe a jahar da ake ganin itace kan gaba wajen yawan alumma a Arewaci dama kasa baki daya, hakan yasa siyasar wannan lokaci ta dauki wani yanayi da kuma salo na musamman da ba’a saba ganinsa a zaben da suka huce ba. Tarihi ya nuna Margayi Abubakar Rimi ne kadai ya taba daukko sabuwar jam’iyar da bata dade kuma ba’a santa ba tayi nasara a Jihar Kano sai wannan karon da Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ma ya kafa wannan tarihin.

Sannan ba’a taba zaben da hankalin Jama’a gaba daya yana kansa ba kamar wannan zaben mutane da dama sun bada gudummawa ta fanni daban daban ciki harda wanda basuda wata alaka da yan takarar da suka shiga wannan zabe, nasan mutane da dama wanda sukayi amfani da abun hawansu wajen daukar mutane su kaisu guraren da zasuyi zabe musamman wanda aka canjawa akwati aka kaisu wani waje mai nisa, sannan da yawa mutane maza da mata basuyi cikakken bacci ba tun daga ranar da akayi zabe zuwa ranar da aka sanar kowa ka gani kansa yana kan waya yana dubawa ko kuma kunnensa yana radio yana saurarar sakamakon zabe, Tabbas soyayyar da jama’ar gari suka nunawa Jam’iyar data lashe a yanzu ba karamar soyayya bace.

A ranar Litinin 20 ga watan March aka sanar da sakamakon zabe na Jihar Kano inda sakamakon manyan yan takara guda 5 ya fito:1. Abba Kabir Yusuf NNPP ya samu kuri’a 1,019,6022. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna APC ya samu kuri’a 809,7053. Sadiq Aminu Wali PDP ya samu kuri’a 159,574. Mal Ibrahim Khalil ADC ya samu kuri’a 12,8325. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada ADP ya samu kuri’a 9,402. Abin mamaki a wannan zabe shine yadda Jam’iyar PDP ta kasa kai bantanta duk da kasancewarta babba jam’iya a kasa baki daya amma a duka zabukan da aka gudanar. Jam’iya PDP bata samu koda Dan Majalissar Jaha guda daya ba sai ma kokarin da sabuwar Jam’iyar ADC (Mal Ibrahim Khalil) yayi wajen kamo jam’iyar PDP a wannan zabe, a fili ya nuna Jam’iyar PDP batada wani tagomashi a jahar Kano kuma tabbas suna bukatar daukar matakai matukar suna bukatar farfado da martabar jam’iyarsu. Daga ranar da aka sanar da wannan sakamako har zuwa jiya Laraba Alummar gari murna suke suna celebration yayinda wasu suka fara tattaki daga inda suke zuwa Kano a kafa domin nuna soyayyarsu ga wanda ya lashe wannan zabe saidai an jiyo shi wanda ya lashe wannan zabe yana garesu da suyi hakuri su koma gida sakamakon rashin tsaro da kuma sace-sacen mutane da ake fama dashi bugu da kari kuma ga shigowar azumi ya bukaci duk masoyinsa da yayi masa adduar nasara wajen gudanar da mulkinsa. A washe garin ranar da aka fadi Sakamako ranar Talata kenan Jam’iya mai mulki ta hada wani taron manema labarai domin sanar da jama’a matsayarsu akan wannan zabe inda mai girma mataimakin Gwamna kuma dan Takarar Gwamna ya tabbatar da cewa basu yarda da wannan zaben ba har yayi ikirarin yakamata yayi ace wannan zabe ya zama Inconclusive tare da tabbatar da zasuyi zanga zanga a ranar Laraba kuma zasu shiga kotu domin neman hakkinsu, saidai fa jama’a sonata tofa albarkacin bakinsu akan wannan Magana inda mutane suke cewa ashe kiran Kaddarar da yakeyi a lokacin neman zabensa ba gaskiya bane domin kuwa ya fadi wasu kalmomi guda 2 wanda ya kasa cika koda 1 daga ciki, 1. Yace idan mulkin Kano ba alkhairi bane a gareshi Allah karya bashir gashi Allah bai bashi ba amma gashi kamar bai yarda ba. 2. Ya fada a gaban jama’a a taron BBC cewar duk wanda Allah ya bawa wannan kujera zasu mara masa baya kuma su bashi shawarwari na gari ba tare da cin dunduniya ba amma shima gashi ya gaza cika maganarsa. A jiya laraba dai suka gabatar da Zanga Zangar neman hakkinsu ga hukumar INEC yayinda hakan ya zama abin dariya a garesu.Wannan zabe ya kafa wasu tarihi guda biyu a wannan shekara1. A duk jahohin Nigeria babu dan Takarar Gwamnan daya samu Kuri’a Million Daya sai a Kano kuma a karkashin sabuwar Jam’iyar NNPP.2. A tarihin Nigeria gaba daya wannan ne karo na farko da tsagin gwamnati sukayi zanga zanga akan neman hakkinsu.

Nigeria Elections Diary: A View from Kano by Mallam Usman Aliyu (Hausa)

Editor’s Introduction (by Alex Thurston):

Nigeria held presidential and legislative elections on February 25, and will hold state elections on March 18. I asked an old friend and colleague, Mallam Usman Aliyu of Kano, if he would be willing to keep an election season diary and allow me to publish it here. For over a decade, Mallam Usman’s observations about local and national politics have shaped and informed my own understanding of Nigeria. Although written in the moment, I think these entries already have staying power. Below is the Hausa text. I will briefly summarize here:

In the first entry (from February 10), Mallam Usman reflects back on the party primaries and what he sees as a vigorous, four-way competition for the presidency between Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso. He also discusses the allegations of ill-health and corruption that Tinubu and Atiku’s campaigns leveled at one another, and also covers in detail the gubernatorial candidates in Kano (the most populous state in the north).

In the second entry (from February 21), Mallam Usman describes the mood in Nigeria and in Kano on the eve of the elections, especially amid the cash shortages – and he brings in ordinary people’s views of why outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari authorized the controversial effort to exchange old bank notes for new ones.

In the third entry (from March 1), Mallam Usman analyzes the election results and describes people’s reactions to them and to the conduct and the expense of the elections. He concludes by noting that some in Atiku’s camp felt that Kwankwaso (who won heavily in Kano) in some way tipped the election to Tinubu.

In any case, these brief summaries don’t do the full diary justice. Hausa speakers may be interested to read the whole thing.

February 10, 2023

ZABEN 2023

Duba da lokacin da muke ciki a yanzu, zabe ya gabato, wato zaben Shugaban Kasa  da na sauran mukamai: Gwamnonin jihohi da kuma na yan majalisun tarayya da na jihohi wanda ake sa ran fara gabatarwa ranar 25 ga wannan  watan. Kamar dai yadda hukumar zabe mai zaman kanta wato INEC karkashin shugaban wato Professor Mahmoud Yakubu ta tsara. Ana sa ran gudanar da zaben Shugaban Kasa da na Yan majalisun tarayya ranar 25 ga watan wanda daga bayan sa zasu gudanar da na jihohin Kasar gaba daya.

Idan mukayi laakari da Manyan Jam’iyunyake da za’a buga zaben sun hada da PDP, APC, NNPP da kuma LP.

APC – ASIWAJU BOLA AHMAD TINUBU

PDP – ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR

NNPP – ENGR. RABIU MUSA KWANKWASO

LP – PETER OBI

Kowane dan kasa a yanzu yana hasashe ne akan daya daga cikin wannan Jami’iyu shine zai lashe wannan gagarumin zabe, yayinda Mutane da dama sukace wannan zaben fah ya banbanta da sauran zabukan da akayi a baya domin kuwa a cikin yan Takarar da suke cikin wannan Jam’iyu guda 4 ana ganin kowa zai iya lashe wannan da kuma tsarin da Hukumar Zabe INEC wanda ganin baayi Magudin zabe ba kuma baa samu abinda a zaben baya aka samu ba wato (Inconclusive) wanda hakika a zaben 2019 ya zama babban abinda yaciwa Talakawa tuwo a kwarya har suke ganin anyi abinda akayi a wannan zaben, to Alhamdulillah shi Shugaban Hukumar Zabe INEC (Mahmuod Yakubu) ya bada tabbacin cewa a wannan zabe fa babu maganar Magudin Zabe da kuma Inconclusive, sakamakon hakane mutane suke hasashen tabbas wannan zaben fah zai bada mamaki ganin kowane Dan Takara yanada nasa Jama’ar kuma kowane Dan Takara a cikin Mutane 4 din dana lissafa ka iya darewa shugabancin wannan kasa duba ga wasu alkaluma na siyasa da kuma alamu da suke bayyana.

Idan muka faro tun daga Farko wato Zaben Fidda Gwani (Primary Election) manyan jam’iyu irinsu APC da PDP sun sha gwagwarmaya matuka kafin su Fidda guda 1 a ciki ya zama Amintaccen Dan Takara, idan mukayi duba ga APC wato Jam’iya mai mulki an shiga zaben fidda Gwani da yan Takara 10 wanda 3 daga ciki sukafi Shahara sune, Bola Ahmad Tinubu, Yemi Osibanjo da kuma  Rotimi Amaechi yayin da Yan Takara 6 suka Janyewa Tinubu daya kuma ya janyewa Osibanjo. Daga karshe dae Bola Tinubu ya lashe zabe da mafificin rinjaye. Sai Jami’iyar PDP inda mutane 3 din da sukafi Shahara sune Alh. Atiku Abubakar, Nyesome Wike da kuma Bukola Saraki. A daya bangaren wato NNPP da kuma LP (Labour Party) basu sha wahala wajen fitar da yan Takararsu ba tun bayan da Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ya fice daga Jami’iyar PDP ya shiga Jam’iyar NNPP tare da nuna kudiransa na tsaya musu Takarar Shugabancin kasa haka yasa basu bata lokaci wajen tunani ko kokarin gabatar da Zaben Fidda gwani ba suka bashi wannan Takara domin kasancewarsa sananne kuma goge a harkar siyasa. Sai kuma Peter Obi na Jam’iyar Labour Party shima tun bayan daya Fice daga Jam’iyar PDP ya nuna kudirinsa wajen zamar musu dan Takara basuyi wata-wata ba suka amince domin yayi musu wannan Takarar kasancewarsa masani ne a Siyasa kuma yayi Gwamna a Jihar Anambra.

Akwai labarai da sukayi ta yawo a Kafafen sada zumunta akan Cecekucen dake tsakanin Manyan yan takarar Shugabancin kasar nan wato Atiku Abubakar na Jam’iyar PDP da kuma Bola Tinubu na jam’iyar APC inda Yan takarar suke jefa wa junansu zarge-zarge game da lafiyarsu da kuma cin hanci da rashawa yayin da a lokacin ya rage saura baifi kwana 40 a gudanar da babban zaɓen ƙasar na 2023.

Tawagar yaƙin neman zaɓen Bola Tinubu na jam’iyyar APC mai mulki ce ta fara sukar Atiku Abubakar, na babbar jam’iyyar adawa ta PDP, tana mai cewa ba shi da lafiyar jagorantar Najeriya. Tinubu ya ce ya kamata ‘yan Najeriya su ji da lafiyar Atiku domin shi yana da cikakkiyar lafiyar gudanar da mulki a yayin da suke mayar da martani, tawagar kamfen ɗin Atiku ta zargi Tinubu da aikata cin hanci da rashawa, tana mai ikirarin cewa “Tinubu kansa shi ne cin hanci”. An daɗe ana tafka muhawara kan ƙoshin lafiyar ‘yan takarar shugabancin ƙasa a Najeriya, inda al-uma suke gudun maimaita abinda ya faru a baya bayan da Shugaba Buhari da ke mulki a yanzu ya shafe watanni yana jinya a Birtaniya a wa’adin mulkinsa na farko.

Cikin wata sanarwa da tawagar yaƙin nema zaɓen Bola Tinubu na APC ta fitar sun zargi Atiku Abubakar na PDP da ɓoye ainahin ƙoshin lafiyarsa da kuma cin hanci.

“Lokaci ya yi da Atiku Abubakar zai faɗi gaskiya game da abu biyu: ƙoshin lafiyarsa da kuma yadda ya haɗa baki da tsohon mai gidansa Olusegun Obasanjo wajen sace dukiyar Najeriya,” a cewar sanarwar da mai magana da yawun tawagar ya fitar, Bayo Onanuga.

Mista Onanuga ya ce tawagar Kamfe ɗin Atiku na ɓoye batun lafiyar ɗan takararsu ta hanyar ƙirƙirar ƙarairayi kan nasu ɗan takarar.

“Atiku ne ɗan takarar da ‘yan Najeriya ya kamata su damu a kansa. Ƙarairayi na tsawon lokaci da sauran hanyoyin kawar da hankali sun daina aiki yanzu.

“Tabbas Atiku ba shi da lafiya kuma hanyoyin da ake bi wajen ɓoyewa sun yi kaɗan.”

Da ya ke mayar da martani game da zarge-zargen, kakakin tawagar kamfe ɗin Atiku Kola Ologbondiyan, ya ce abin dariya ne ganin yadda APC ke yi wa ɗan takararsu ƙagen rashin lafiya.

“Kazalika, shashanci ne yunƙurin da Tinubu ya ke yi, wanda ya yi shuhura da zama cin hanci shi kansa, na ɓata sunan ɗan takarar PDP,” in ji shi.

Sanarwar ba ta gushe ba sai da ta zargi Tinubu da mu’amala da miyagun ƙwayoyi. A siyasar Najeriya, ba sabon abu ba ne ‘yan takara su dinga jifan junansu da manyan zarge-zarge irin waɗannan a bainar jama’a. Sai dai kuma ba za a taɓa ganinsu tare suna ce-ce-ku-ce a juna ba ballantana rikici.

Rashin manufofi ne ke jawo irin waɗannan munanan zarge-zarge tsakanin PDP da APC a Najeriya, a cewar Farfesa Kamilu Sani Fagge, wani masanin kimiyyar siyasa a Jami’ar Bayero ta Kano a lokutta daban daban da ya ke yin fashin bakin siyasar Kasar nan.

“Wannan al’amari ya nuna irin yadda siyasarmu take, saboda ‘yan takarar ba su da wani tsari na tunkarar matsalolin da suka addabi ƙasa shi ya sa ake ta zargin juna da kalaman ɓatanci da siyasar banga,” in ji shi.

Farfesa Fagge ya ce irin waɗannan kalamai ba za su yi wani tasiri ba a kan masu zaɓe.

“Ba zai sauya ra’ayin wani mai jefa ƙuri’a ba don ya zaɓi wani takara.”

Haka nan, masanin kimiyyar siyasar na ganin cewa kalaman za su ƙara zafafa yayin da zaɓe ke ƙara ƙaratowa, “amma da zarar an yi zaɓe sai ka ji shuru, a bar magoya baya da cecekuce”.

Wasu daga cikin mutanen Najeriya suna ganin babu babban abinda yake damun Kasar nan a yanzu face cin hanci da rashawa da kuma rashin samun lafiyayyen Shugaban da zai jagorance su kuma suke gudun kara fadawa wannan tarkon. Hakan yayi tasiri sosai wajen sakawa wasu yan Najeriya shakku akan wadannan yan Takara guda 2 wato Atiku da Tinubu, yayinda a daya bangaren kuma Engr. Kwankwaso da kuma Peter Obi suka sake samun damar cigaba da Kamfen da wannan dama da suka samu akan abokan Karawarsu.

A yanzu ya rage baifi saura kwana 10 a shiga babban zabe yayin da yan takara suke ta kokarin zagaya Garuruwa domin jaddada kudirinsu na shugabantar wannan kasa, abunda yake yawo a yanzu shine ikirarin da Dan Takarar jami’iyar APC Bola Tinubu akan an canja kudi kuma ana wahalar mai saboda talakawa su tsani Jam’iyar APC kuma ya fadi zabe a fadarsa kamar kamshin mutuwa yan Jam’iyarsa sukeyi masa, kwatsam sai akaji Gwamnan Jihar Kaduna Nasir El-Rufa’I yana cewa wasu manya a Villa basa goyon bayan Tinubu a yayinda jama’ar Gari kuma suke ganin karara wannan Magana da Mai Girma Buhari yake.

Idan akazo fanin raayi da kuma cancanta mutane da dama sun fadi albarkacinsu da kuma hasashe akan wanda ake tunanin zai iya lashe wannan zabe. Mutane da dama sun fadi raayinsu game da wanda suka cancanta da wanda kuma suke hasashen wanda zai lashe zabe. Wasu sunce indae maganar cancanta ake to fa Bola Tinubi baya cikin wanda suka cancanta sakamakon shekarunsa sunja kuma bashida cikakkiyar lafiya Bugu da kari kuma ana zarginsa da safarar miyagun kwayoyi, bugu da kari kuma ga yanayin da jama’a suke tunanin jam’iyar APC ta saka mutane tun daga lokacin da suka karbi mulkin kasa shekara 8 kenan ga kuma wahalar mai da kudi da ake fuskanta a yanzu da zabe ya gabato, tabbas wannan ka iya shafar shi dan takarar APC Tinubu. Sannan kuma mutanen Arewa suna ganin a cikin manufofin Tinubi babu wani abu da zai amfani yan Arewa, hakan ma yana iya kawo masa nakasu wajen cin zabe.

A daya bangaren kuma mutane da yawa suna ganin Atiku Abubakar ma bai cancanci zama Shugaban kasa ba sakamakon tun daga primary election duk wani abu daya shafi yakin neman zabensa yana amfani da kudi shiyasa ma mutane suke hasashen tabbas idan yaci zabe jama’a zasu sha wahala saboda tunaninsa dan kudinsa aka zabeshi kuma yanada kudirin mayar abubuwa da dama hannun yan kasuwa wanda jama’a suke ganin hakan wahala zai karawa yan Najeriya. Wasu da yawa sunce bashida gogewa da jajircewar da ake bukata saboda mukamin mataimakin shugaban kasa ya rike wanda yake daidai da dan zaman banza kuma baisan kukan talakawa da kuma abinda suke bukata ba. Bugu da kari ga matsalar rashin cikakkiyar lafiya da kuma shekaru da shima suka cimmasa wanda yan Najeriya suna ganin hakan bazai bashi cikakkiyar dammar gudanar da mulkin wannan kasa.

A bangaren Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso kuwa kasancewa ta dan Kano banci karo da rashin cancantarsa da yawa ba saidai masu ganin idan yaci mulki yanada riko kuma baya yafiya shiyasa wasu suke ganin zaiyi amfani da wannan damar wajen Taka duk wanda yakeso wanda kuma talakawan Najeriya bashi suke bukata a yanzu ba. Sannan kuma mutanen kudancin Najeriya suna zargin idan yaci mulki to fa zai karkato da abubuwa da dama zuwa Arewa saboda kasancewarsa mutum mai kabilanci. Wasu kuma suna ganin abinda zai hanashi cin zabe bai huce fitowarsa a cikin karamar jam’iyar da baa dade da kafata ba kuma jama’ar mu musamman na kauyuka sunfi sanin jam’iyar PDP da APC kuma wannan babban nakasu ne ga Rabiu Kwankwaso.

A qarshe idan mukazo maganar Dan Takarar Labour Party wato Peter Obi kaso 95% na mutanen arewacin Najeriya basu san Peter Obi ba saboda dalilai guda 2 na 1, Ya fito a Jam’iyar da baa santa ba na 2, baiyiwa Najeriya wani abun azo a gani da har zasu sanshi ba. Da yawa suna ganin idan ma ace an sanshi kamar sauran Yan Takara to fa bashida gogewar mulki kasancewar Gwamna yayi a wani karamin garin da baifi yawan mutanen Local Government daya ba a Kano wato Anambra kuma bashida cikakkiyar nagartar zama Shugaban wannan kasa.

Idan muka dawo batun wanda ake ganin zai iya lashe zabe da kuma dalilai;

1. Dan takarar Jam’iyar APC wato Tinubu zai iya lashe zabe sakamakon da yawa mutanen Lagos suna sonsa kuma ana ganin suna cikin garurwan da suke da yawan al-umma a Najeriya da kuma wanda suke yarensa zasuyi masa kara, sannan kuma idan aka duba wanda ya dauka a Mataimaki Kashim Shatima shima mutum ne mai Jama’a a jahar Borno wanda ka iya taimakawa wajen ganin Tinubu yaci zabe.

2. Dan takarar Jam’iyar PDP Atiku Abubakar kusan shi mutane suke ganin tabbas wannan shekarar tasa ce saboda a zaben baya kusan yayi kankankan da Shugaba Buhari wanda shine akan mulki a wannan lokaci shiyasa suke ganin wannan karon zai iya cin zabe kuma da yawa suna ganin shine zai ceto kasar nan daga halin da take ciki. Sannan mutanen Arewa maso Gabas sunyi alwashin sun gaji da yan Arewa ta ta yamma suna mulkarsu suna shan wahala shiyasa sukace suma fa wannan karon nasu zasu zaba.

3. Dan takarar Jam’iyar NNPC Rabiu kwankwaso shine na 2 a jerin wanda suka kasance favourite saboda masu ganin duk cikin yan takarar yafisu cancanta da kuma gogewar mulki saboda ya riqe mukamai da dama fiye da sauran yan takara hakama yafi dukkan sauran yan takara mataki a karatu wanda da yawa suke ganin matakin iliminsa ya kai ya jagoranci wannan kasa kuma ya ceto ta daga halin da take ciki saboda jajircewarsa a wajen shugabanci kuma ya kasance mai fada da cika duk abinda yayi alkawari a lokacin dayayi mulki a Kano da kuma sauran mukaman daya rike. Mutane da yawa harda yan kudu suna kara bashi nasara saboda mataimakinsa mutum ne mai mutane hakan na iya sawa wasu daga cikin mutanen kudi su zabi kwankwaso saboda mataimakinsa. Duk wanda zai bude baki akansa saidai yafadi wani abun daban amma indae maganar cancanta ake to ba shakka Kwankwaso yafi duk sauran yan takara cancanta.

4. Dan takarar Jam’iyar Labour Party Peter Obi shine na karshe a hasashen mutane sakamakon rashin saninsa da baayi a arewa ba da kuma kasancewa mutanen Arewa sunfi mutanen Kudu yawa hakan zaiyi matukar shafar nasararsa.

BABBAN ZABEN GWAMNA JIHAR KANO

Kimanin kwanaki 25 ko kasa da haka suka rage zaben Gwamna a Jihar Kano, zaben da zai kasance mafi daukar hankali a Arewacin Nigeria. Zabe ne tsakanin Manyan Jami’iyu guda 4;

1. Abba Kabir Yusuf (NNPP Party)
2. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna (APC)
3. Muhammad Abacha (PDP)
4. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada (ADP)

Idan muka dauki wadannan yan takara daya bayan daya muka tattauna cancantar su da kuma abinda ka iya hana kowannensu hawa wannan kujera zamuyi gamo da abubuwan ban mamaki a ciki;

1. Abba Kabir Yusuf (NNPP) mafi yawan Al-ummar Jihar Kano musamman na cikin Kano da kewaye sun raja’a akan Abba saboda kasancewarsa tare da Rabiu Kwankwaso da kuma duba da nasarar daya samu a zaben daya gabata wanda shine yakasance shiga Zaben sa na farko a siyasa mutane mafi rinjaye suke ganin shine ya dace ya hau wannan kujera musamman yan cikin garin Kano suna ganin wannan lokacin fa dan cikin kwaryar Kano sukeso. Babbar matsalar da zai iya samu bai huce kasancewarsa a sabuwar Jam’iyar da yawanci mutanen kauye basa banbancewa sun fi sanin PDP da APC.

2. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna (APC) ya zama kamar shine na 2 da mutane suke tunanin da hasashen zai hau kujerar mulki wanda dama shine mataimakin gwamna a yanzu. Saidai Jama’a da dama suna ganin rashin cancantarsa saboda abinda suka aikata a zaben daya gabata dashi da Mataimakinsa a yanzu wanda ake ganin rashin sanin darajar Dan Adam ne mutane subi layi cikin rana suyi zabe saboda son zuciya da kwadayin mulki su yaga sakamakon zabe. Wannan ka iya zama babban tabo a gareshi, yayinda wasu da dama suke ganin mutum ne mai fuska 2 yana nuna son hadin kai da kuma taimakawa al-ummar jihar Kano bayan a zuciya da ayyukansa mutane basuga hakan a zahiri ba, sannan kuma ana ganin abubuwan da yake cewa zaiyi idan yah au mulki meyasa a matsayinsa na mataimakin gwamna bai bawa gwamna shawara yayi ba lokacin da yake kan mulki hakan ya fito da yaudara a cikin lamarinsa.

3. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada (ADP) fitowar Sha’aban takarar Gwamna ya zama abu mai matukar mamaki a idon mutanen Kano yayinda mafi akasari ma suke zargin takararsa bata gaske bace contract aka bashi wanda daga karshe zai janye ya hada kai da wani. Babban abinda mutane basu fahimta ba shine Sha’aban mutum ne mai al-umma a jihar Kano wanda ko baici zabe ba to fa zai ragewa yan takara kuri’a. Kuma kasancewarsa a cikin karamar Jam’iyar da a cikin gari ma baa santa ba sosai bare kuma cikin kauyuka ka iya bashi matsala a wannan zabe da zaayi.

4. Muhammad Abacha (PDP) Al-ummar Jihar Kano sun gaza gane me yake faruwa a Jam’iya PDP a Kano, yau ace Abacha ne dan takara gobe ace Sadiq Wali shiyasa ma mutane da yawa suke ganin jam’iyar PDP bata shirya shiga wannan zabe da zai gabata nanda kwanakin da basufi 32 ba. Jama’a da yawa suna ganin wannan kamar wasan kwaikwayo ne kuma hakan yasa baa saka jam’iyar PDP a lissafin zaben gwamnan jihar Kano. Idan ma ace Abacha ko Sadiq ne dan takara to fa dukkansu babu abinda suka sani akan siyasa da kuma mu’amala da mutane. Rashin kamfen da basuyi ba sakamakon rigimar cikin gida da suke fama da ita yasa ake ganin to fa tabbas lokaci ya kure musu.

A karshe zan rufe wannan rubutu nawa da cewa tabbas a Kano za’ayi zaben da aka dade baayi kamar sa ba kuma hasashen mutane da yawa ya nuna koma waye zaici wannan zabe to fa zaici ne da fifikon kuri’a kadan saboda yan takarar da suka fito wannan zabe.

A karshe muna Addu’ar Allah ya zaba mana shugabanni na gari wanda suke da niyyar gyara ba wanda Zasu yi wadaka da dukiyar al’umma ba.

Duk da cewa mutane da dama suna ganin wannan zabe ba lalle ne ya yiwu ba amma dai shi shugaban hukumar zaben mai zaman kanta wato INEC Professor Mahmoud Yakubu ya kuma ya sake kuma maimaitawa a kowanne lokaci cewa hukumar sa zata bada mamaki kuma zata gudanar da zabe mafi sahihanci a cikin tarihin zabukan wannan kasa tamu Nigeria.

Wani sabon batu kuma wanda ya fito ranar Talata 7/2/2023 shine wata sanarwa da gamayyar wasu jam’iyu guda goma sha uku a cikin sha takwas suka fidda shine  sun cimma matsaya akan cewa akwai yiwuwar ba zasu shiga cikin wannan zabe mai zuwa ba duba da yanayin da alumma ke ciki na halin matsi kama daga wahalar man fetur da kuma matsi dangane da wannan canjin kudi da aka yi duba da dan takaitattecn lokacin da Babban Bankin kasar nan ta bayar wanda ya haifar da matsi da kuma cecekuce a tsakanin mutane, Yan takarkaru da kuma shugannin siyasun kasar nan.idan har hakan ta tabbata to lalle sai mu ce wannan zabe mai zuwa yana fuskantar tazgado wanda kuma ka iya sakawa a daga ko kuma ma zaben ya zamanto ba mai iya yiwuwa ba gaba daya.A halin da ake ciki kuma a yau din nan Laraba 9 ga wata ana ci gaba da samun labarin zanga zanga a garuruwa da dama Kamar Jihar Ogun, Edo, Kogi da sauransu haka kuma a na ci  gaba da samun labarin mutane a jihohi daban daban suna lalata na’urar ATM da kuma yunkurin farmaki ga bankuna duka dai domin nuna rashin jin dadi kan wannan batu. wannan dai shine halin da Kasar nan ta samu kanta wanda kuma ka iya jawowa a dage zaben ko kuma ma hana iya gudanar da zaben ma gaba daya.

February 21, 2023

Yayin da ya rage saura kwana 3 daidai a shiga babban zaben shugaban kasa da yan majalissar tarayya kuma ake gab da rufe yakin neman zabe (campaign), Jama’a na kara kokawa kan matsin rayuwa da ake ciki sakamakon canjin kudin da aka samu yayinda hakan ya bude fuskoki guda 2 a bangaren siyasa. 

Na 1 wasu daga cikin gwamnonin Arewa da suka kasance yan jam’iya mai ci a yanzu wayo APC suna ganin kamar shugaban kasa fa kamshin mutuwa yakeyi musu saboda yana ganin shi fa ya gama mulkinsa shiyasa bai damu su ci zabe ko su fadi ba kuma hakan ya nuna kamar akwai wata a kasa tsakanin su da gwamnonin da kuma shi shugaban kasa.

Amma a cewar shugaba Buhari an yi wannan canjin kudi ne sakamakon yaji kishin-kishin cewar manyan yan siyasa musamman Gwannoni sun tanadi kudade masu tarin yawa domin suyi amfani dasu lokaci zabe domin siyan kuri’ar talakawa, wanda shugaban yake ganin hakan ya saba da dokar kasa, kuma yunkurin da yakeyi a yanzu zaa iya cewa yana iya kokarinsa wajen ganin a wannan zabe na 2023 an gabatar da zabe sahihi kuma mai inganci. 

Na 2 a bangaren talakawan gari kuma suna kokawa matuka sakamakon wahalar kudi wanda suke ganin ya zama kamar rijiya ta bayar da ruwa guga ya hana, mutane sun yi aiki tukuru wajen neman kudi amma kashe su ya zama wahala, duk inda ake samun kudi (cash) sun zama samunsu wahala koda zaka samu kuwa sai kabi dogon layi kuma ranka ya baci sannan a karshe ma bazaka samu abinda zai isheka ba. Ya zama abinda ake cewa kaida kudinka amma saidai idan zaka fita kaje wajen masu POS kamar kana maular su taimaka maka da abinda zakayi transport kuma kaci abinci, Jama’a da dama sun ce wannan wahala da ake basu DANBAKARA suda jam’iya mai mulki yayinda kowa yake Allah wadai da wannan matsin rayuwa.

Wasu tunanin su shine Shugaban kasa yayi wannan canjin domin tabbatar da sahihin zabe saidai ya zama abinda hausawa suke cewa bayan wuya sai dadi to tabbas wannan itace wuyar kuma idan muka jure da yardar Allah a cewar su  zamu samu dammar zabar shugabanni da kanmu kuma zaa bamu wanda muka zaba.

Zaben bana yazo da tsaruka na musamman ba kamar wanda akayi a baya ba domin na samu tattaunawa da waddanda suke zuwa  yin  training na aikin zaben wanda aka fara ranar Juma’a, kamar yadda suka Gani dai gaskiya ne zaben ya zo da sababbin abubuwa kamar amfani da na’urar BVAS wajen tantance duk wanda zai kada kuri’a kuma a wannan zabe babu zancen tantance mai yin zabe ta hanyar takarda wato (manual identification) sai na’urar BVAS ta tantanceka sannan zaka samu dammar kada kuri’a. 

A Daya bangaren kuma abinda mutane suke fada na cewa anya zaayi zaben nan ba tare da an daga ba na iya faruwa saboda alamu sun nuna karara hukumar gudanar da zabe INEC batada isassun kudaden gabatar da wannan zabe, akwai littafin da ake amfani dashi wajen bawa masu aikin zabe wato (Manual) a zaben baya an bawa kowane ma’aikaci nasa amma wannan zaben sai gashi an buge da hada ma’aikata 3 da manual daya wanda hakan na iya haifar da rashin fahimtar aikin ga maaikatan zabe.

A bangaren talakawan gari mutane da dama suna ganin akwai wasu dalilai da zai sa suyi kokari wajen ganin sun kawo sauyin gwamnati musamman al-ummar Arewacin Nigeria, wanda suke ganin ma babu wani mai hankali da zai kara zabar jam’iya mai ci a yanzu domin ikirarin da suke gani a shekara 8 da wannan jam’iya tayi mulki basu amfanawa talakawa wani abun azo a gani ba sai koma baya, tsananin rayuwa da tashin kaya masarufi da dai sauransu. A duk kwanakin da suke shudewa a cikin wannan yanayi Jam’iya mai mulki tana kara samun koma baya a bangaren mutanen saboda tsananin wahalar da akesha a yanzu daya rage kwana 3 kacal babban zabe. 

Ana gab da shiga wannan zabe ne akaji Dan Takarar PDP Atiku yana cika baki da bugun karji kan shifa yafi karfin Dan  Takararsa na APC Bola Tinubu har yake ganin koda sau 100 zaayi zabe tskaninsa da Tinubu to tabbas shine zaiyi nasara, hakan yasa wasu mutanen suke mamakin wannan Magana tasa har suke cewa to kenan da Tinubu kadai yake ganin zai goga ina ya bar dan Takarar NNPP wato Kwankwaso da kuma dan takarar LP Peter Obi. Babban hasashen da jamaa sukeyi kuwa shine abinda Hausawa suke fada na Dan Hakkin daka raina na iya faruwa dashi Atikun domin Kwankwaso da Peter Obi ba ababan rainawa bane a wannan zabe domin kuwa suma sunada magoya baya kuma musamman Kwankwaso kullum suna Karin samun goyon baya daga talakawan gari dama wasu jiga-jigai a manyan jam’iyu. 

Zaben Gwannoni Kuma  ya rage sati 2 da kuma kwana 3 yayinda manyan yan takara suka cigaba da yakin neman zabe (Campaign) 

Anan Kano babban abinda yake yawo a wajen mutane shine hukuncin da babbar kotun kasa ta yanke kan wanda zai tsayawa jam’iyar PDP takarar tsakanin Muhammad Abacha da Sadiq Wali inda kotu ta tabbatar da Sadiq Wali a matsayin halattaccen dan takarar gwamnan Jihar Kano wanda hakan yasa wasu jiga-jigan dake bayan Muhammad Abacha suka fice daga Jam’iyar zuwa sabuwar Jam’iyar NNPP domin a ganinsu uwar Jam’iya basuyi musu adalci ba kasancewar suna ganin kamar anyi amfani da karfin da tsagin Sadiq Wali suke dashi a jam’iyar wajen yi musu kamshin mutuwa, su kuwa hakan yasa suka fice suka bi tsohuwan mai gidansu Rabiu Kwankwaso, su kuma yan tsagin Aminu da sukayiwa nasara suke ganin yan tsagin Abacha sun cucesu wajen hargitsa musu jam’iya da bijiro da yan takarar bogi domin rabawa mutane hankali misali a karamar hukumar Tarauni , Adam Zaki ne dan takarar Majalissar jaha kwatsam kuma sai jiya muka wayi gari ana yawo da poster wani dan takarar daban shima karkashin jam’iyar ta PDP, tsagin Aminu Wali sun cigaba da cewa sun bata musu lokaci wajen rashin samun cikakkiyar damar yakin neman zabe (campaign) wanda suke ganin matukar suka fadi zabe to fa wannan dalilin ne yasa domin Jama’ar gari da dama har yanzu basu san waye halattaccen dan takara ba bare ma suyi tunanin kada masa kuri’a, domin a Kano maganar yan takara 3 kacal akeyi Abba, Gawuna da kuma Sha’aban. 

Saidai masu hasashe fa suna ganin sauran yan takarar dake kananun jam’iya irinsu Mal. Ibrahim Khalil su Salihu Tanko Yakasai suna iya kawowa duk mai kokarin cin zabe cikas domin suma sunada nasu jama’ar a boye kuma har gobe dukkansu kowa yana sa rai da lashe wannan zabe. A bangaren Jam’iyar APC kuwa dan takara Gawuna yana iya kokarinsa wajen shiga kauyuka da tabbatar musu da kudirinsa na dorawa akan inda mai Girma Gwamna ya tsaya kuma yana musu alkawarin tallafi ga mata da matasa yayinda jamaa suke ganin wannan fa bakomai bane face yaudara domin suna ganin a mulkin yanzun ma basu amfana ba bare kuma wanda suke tunanin idan Gawuna ya koma mulki to fa zaaci gaba da shan wahala da kuma kamshin mutuwa ga mutanen musamman yan Adaidaita Sahu da kuma wanda ake tashin su daga wajen sana’arsu ba tare da an nema musu wani ba, kuma tabbas wannan na iya kawo cikas ga kudirin shi dan takara duba da yawan yan adaidaita Sahu a Kano state 

A halin yanzu yan Adaidaita Sahu suna cewa babu mai hankalin da zai zabi wannan gwamnati. 

Ta bangaren Sha’aban Sharada na ADC kuwa jama’a sun ce sun ji shiru wanda haka ya dawo dasu kan zargin da sukeyi tun a farko na cewa takararsa bata gaske bace inda suke gasgata kewa kamar kwangila aka bashi domin ya kawowa jam’iyar APC cikas a wannan zaben tunda yanzu sunji shi baya wani motsi a lokacin da suke ganin ya dace fa ace ya motsa duba da kwanaki kadan ya rage wannan zabe. Ta bangaren NNPP kuwa Abba Gida Gida kuma ya kara dagewa wajen shiga lungu da sako domin ganin ya kara jawo hankalin alumma domin su kara zabarsa a karo na biyu bayan daya samu ruwan kuri’u a zaben daya gabata, wanda hakan yasa mafi akasarin mutane suke ganin a wannan karon fa kowane dan takara saidai ya hakura ya barwa Abba dan suna ganin kamar yanzu shine lokacinsa, bugu da kari shigowar manyan jam’iyar PDP cikin tafiyar NNPP irinsu Sagagi da sauransu hakan ma yasa ya kara farin jini kuma mafi soyuwa a wajen alumma duba da yadda yake tara mutane a wajen taronsa.

Babban abinda yake kwantarwa da jama’a hankali shine kokarin da shugaban INEC yakeyi wajen ganin anyi zabe mai sahihanci a wannan kakar zaben kuma anyi yaki da amfani da yan daba da wasu yan siyasa sukeyi da kuma matsalar sace akwati da aringizon kuri’u domin hanyar daya daukko ta nuna amfani da naurar computer wajen tura sakamakon zabe zuwa ga INEC kai tsaye.

A wani bangaren Kuma hankalin Jama’ ya tashi sakamakon daukewar sadarwa wato network service da ake maganar zaayi daga nan zuwa Juma’a domin dai ganin anyi zabe mai sahihanci. 

Wannan shine atakaice abinda ke faruwa a halin yanzu nan kasar dangane da wannan Zaben Mai zuwa.

March 1, 2023

Tun bayan kammala babban zaben shugaban kasa, sanatoci da kuma yan majalissar tarayya abubuwa da dama sun faru yayin zabe da kuma bayan zabe.

Daga cikin abubuwan da suka faru lokacin zabe sun hada da rashin kai kayan aikin zabe a lokacin zabe wanda ya saba da lokacin da akayi ka’ida na 8:30 inda wasu guraren sai 12 wasu 2 wasu ma 4 wanda hakan ya fusata masu kada kuri’a inda suke ganin yaya za’ayi su baro gidajensu tun 8 wasu ma basu karya ba amma ma’aikatan zabe da kayan zabe basu zo ba sai da lokaci ya kure , sannan kaidar kammala zabe shine karfe 2:30 sai dai duk wanda yake layi dole za’ayi masa amma sai da ta kai an kai har wajen karfe 9 na dare ana kada kuri’a, tabbas hakan ba karamin ci baya bane ga hukumar Inec saboda babu dalilin da zaisa su gaza shiryawa bayan lokutan da aka dauka wajen shirya wannan zabe, bugu da kari a kokarin da inec takeyi wajen ganin ta mayar da kowane akwati yawan mutane baifi 500 ba jama’a da dama an canja musu akwati yayinda aka kirkiri wasu sababbin akwatuna ba tare da mutane sun sani ba, mutane da dama sai sun je kada kur’ia za’ace musu wannan kuri’ar bata wannan akwati bace bayan sun yi shekara da shekaru suna zabe a wannan akwati, wasu an tura musu sako na canjin da aka samu wasu kuma an tura bai shigo ba wasu kuma basu iya samun damar karantawa ba, wannan dalilin yasa jama’a da dama ba suyi zabe ba musamman a Jihar Kano domin kuwa wasu daga inda tsohon akwatinsu yake zuwa inda sabon yake doguwar tafiya ce da tasa mutane da dama suka hakura da wannan zaben, sannan kuma a wannan zaben an samu karancin fitowa zabe fiye da zaben daya huce a baya hakan yanada alaka da mutanen suke ganin zabe a Nigeria bashida wani muhimmanci saboda dalilai guda 2, na daya (1) ta’addancin da wasu masu son  zuciya suke sawa ayi a lokacin zabe inda jama’a suke ganin zama lafiya yafi zama dan sarki kara su zauna a gida basu fita ba bare aji musu ciwo a banza. Na (2) yawan magudin zaben da ake samu wasu ma suna cewa tun kafin zaben ma ansan wanda za’a bawa suke ganin babu bukatar su fita su bata lokacinsu kara a bawa duk wanda za’a bawa. A bangaren ma’aikatan zabe kuma an gaza biyansu hakkinsu na training da kuma allowance na cin abinci wanda da yawa sai ranar zabe da safe sannan aka basu wannan kudade wasu kuma har yau ma baa basu wannan kudade ba kuma da yawa sun yi doguwar tafiya sun kashe kudin mota daga gidajensu zuwa inda zasuyi wannan aiki, ga kuma kudinsu na zabe ma ba’a basu ba har kawo yau, gurare da yawa an samu tangardar naurar tantancewa (BVAS) yayinda wasu guraren kuma ba’a bada isassun kayan aiki ba kuma gurare da dama an samu matsala wajen basu littafin shigar da sakamakon zabe inda aka dinga bada wanda bana wannan akwati ba. Babbar matsalar da INEC ta gaza cikawa itace ta dora sakamakon zabe a internet immediately bayan gama zabe domin kuwa wasu masu amfani da BVAS din basu samu cikakken horo akan naurar da har zasu san yadda zasu dora wannan zabe wasu kuma inda suke babu network da zasuyi connecting su dora wannan sakamakon zaben, wannan matsalar tasa a wajen tattara zabe wakilin PDP Dino Malaye yake korafi akan meyasa baa dora sakamakon zabe a internet ba wanda yake ganin anyi hakan ne domin yin magudi a wannan zabe.

Babban abinda yaja hankali kuma ya bawa mutane matukar mamaki shine tasirin da kananan jam’iyu suka nuna a wannan zabe inda suka lashe zaben manyan jahohin da suke Nigeria guda 2 wato Kano da Lagos da kuma nasarorin da dan takarar Labour Party Peter Obi ya samu a manyan jahohin dake kasar nan ciki harda garin da ake ganin sunfi ko ina yawan jama’a a Nigeria Lagos, wannan nasarar ta bawa mutane mamaki kuma ya nuna kamar mutanenmu sun fara wayewa wajen ganin sun zabi chanchanta ba jam’iya ba. Sannan abun daya faru a jahohin kudu yasa masu hankali a cikin jama’ar arewacin Nigeria sun fuskanci inda aka dosa a yanzu, har akaji wani professor yana ikirarin abinda yan kudu sukayi hankali suka koyawa yan arewa domin su basa hana dan kasa yin register zabe wanda hakan ya basu dammar tara kuri’u mai yawa, inda professor din yake cewa tabbas wannnan abu daya faru yasa sun gane a zabe mai zuwa har almajirai sai sunyi musu register katin zabe kuma zasu jajirce wajen nunawa nasu soyayya domin kuwa soyayyar da inyamurai suka nunawa peter obi ce tasa ya samu nasara a guraruwa da dama ciki harda Arewacin Nigeria kamar Abuja, plateau da kuma Jahar Nasarawa. Idan mukayi duba da Jahar Kano wannan zabe ya bada mamaki matuka ganin yadda al’ummar jahar Kano suka karbi tafiyar sabuwar jam’iya wanda aka dade baaga hakan a shekaru da dama tun zamanin Abubakar Rimi. Sabuwar Jam’iyar ta lashe kusan kaso 90% na kujerun yan majalissa da suke jahar da kuma lashe Sanata 2 a cikin 3 dake jahar, zaben daya yamutsa hazo wanda har yanzu ake tattaunawa akansa shine zaben Tudun Wada da kuma Doguwa wanda ake zargin dan takarar majalissa wannan karamar hukuma yayi amfani da matasa wajen aikata ta’addanci a wajen wannan zabe domin ya samu nasara, abin ban haushi shaidun gani da ido sun tabbatar da an ganshi shi da kansa yana harbi a wajen wannan zabe kuma an tabbatar da akwai mutumin da aka harbeshi yana sallah a wannan waje bayan mutanen da aka kulle daki aka kunna musu wuta, wannan ba karamin ci baya bane a tsarin democracy kuma ya sava da dokokin kasa wajen amfani da ta’addanci a lokacin zabe da kuma ba lokacin zabe ba, al’ummar Nigeria dai sun zuba ido domin ganin hukuncin da zaa dauka akan wannan dan majalissa domin kuwa INEC ta tabbatar dashi a matsayin zababben wannan yanki, har yanzu dai ana bincike inda shi wannan dan takara yake tsare a hannun jami’an farin kaya (DSS).

A jiya daddare aka kammala karbar sakamakon zabe kuma aka tabbatar da wanda yayi nasara a wannan zabe amma fa akwai hujjoji da suke nuna yadda aka tafka magudi a wannan zabe inda akaji jam’iyar PDP da LP suna ikirarin lallai a soke wannan zabe a sake wani ko kuma su garzaya kotu. Kadan daga cikin sakamakon garuruwan da ake gani an tafka wannan magudi sun hada da Jahar Ekiti inda wakilin PDP Dino Malaye yace sakamakon da INEC ta wallafa a shafinta ba shine aka kawo gaban shugaban zabe ba, inda a gefe guda ma akaji tsohon shugaban kasar Nigeria Obasanjo ya soki wannan zabe kuma yayi umarni da lallai shugaban INEC ya soke wannan zabe gaba daya a sake wani domin bai yarda da ingancinsa ba yayinda su kuma jam’iya masu mulki sukayi masa martani da bashida darajar da zaisa a soke zabe, Kungiyar European Union (EU) ma tana cikin kungiyoyin da suka soki wannan zabe inda sukace akwai kuskure da dama da kuma rashin ingancin zaben duba da an samu satar akwati a gurare da dama kuma mutane sunyi korafi kala-kala akan zaben da dai sauransu.

Babban abinda mutane suke korafi akai shine zaben Jahar Gombe inda baturen zaben da kansa ya ayyana mutane 295,782 sune adadin wanda akayiwa register yayinda aka tantance mutane 78,487 amma bisa mamaki sai aka samu adadin valid vote 88,991 wanda aka samu Karin akalla mutane 10,000 da wani abun akan wanda aka tantance, to abin tambayar shine tayaya wannan mutane 10,000 din sukayi zabe ba’a tantancesu ba bayan a dokar wannan zabe matukar na’urar tantancewa BVAS bata tantance ka ba saidai kayi hakuri, kuma mutane suke mamakin yadda aka karanta wannan sakamakon a gaban shugaban shugaban INEC kuma ya karba ba tare da yayi korafi akan hakan ba, hakan ya bawa mutane gamsuwa akan video da suke yawo a kafefen sadarwa na an bawa yara kuri’a suna dangwalawa duk da ba’a tabbatar da wannan video daga wane gari ya fito ba, sai ma aka jiyo Jam’iyar APC suna bada umarnin a kama Dino Malaye da Dele Mammadu bisa zargin tada tarzoma a lokacin karbar zabe a Abuja. A safiyar yau kuma aka tashi da zanga-zanga a garin Abuja inda suke zargin Shugaba Buhari da kuma shugaban INEC bisa rashin cika alkawarin da suka dauka na gabatar da sahihin zabe, har suke ikirarin lallai shugaban INEC ya ajiye aikinsa.A karshe dai an kammala karbar zaben Jahohi 35 harda Abuja inda Dan takarar APC Bola Tinubu ya lashe wannan zabe da kuri’u 8,794,726. Sai Dan takarar PDP Atiku Abubakar ya samu kuri’u 6,984,520. Sai dan Takarar Labour Party Peter Obi ya samu kuri’u 6,101,533. Sai dan Takarar NNPC Rabiu Kwankwaso ya samu Kuri’u 1,496,687. Bola Tinubu ya lashe zabe a jahohi 12, Atiku Abubakar ya lashe jahohi 12, Peter Obi ya lashe Jahohi 11, Rabiu Kwankwaso ya lashe Jaha 1, yakama jahohi 36. Wasu daga cikin Mutanen Jami’iyar PDP suna zargin Rabiu Kwankwaso da hanasu lashe zabe wanda koda ace an hada kuri’un Rabiu Kwankwaso a bawa Atiku kuri’un bazasu kai na Bola Tinubu ba.

Sahel (and Adjacent Zones) Roundup, Including Some Long Reads

United Nations Development Programme, “Journey to Extremism in Africa: Pathways to Recruitment and Disengagement,” February 2023. This is a follow-up to an impactful and insightful 2017 study that focused on state abuses as a “tipping point” for recruitment. This follow-on report makes a key distinction between recruits who join, often quite quickly, due to a trigger event, versus “slow” recruits who do not have a single trigger event. There’s a lot to think about here.

Rahmane Idrissa, “In Bamako,” London Review of Books, 2 February 2023. Prof. Idrissa is essential reading on the Sahel, although I paused over almost every sentence in the below paragraph – I don’t agree with the implication that Dicko had or has a master plan.

Doumbi’s talk of ‘wars of religion’ tells us something about the clashing visions that could easily destroy Hampâté Bâ’s multicultural vision of Mali. Doumbi’s main adversary is Imam Mahmoud Dicko, a charismatic Salafi cleric who has been working for decades to turn Mali into an Islamic republic. He was instrumental in Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta’s accession to the presidency in 2013: in return for Dicko’s support, Keïta promised to promote an Islamist platform championed by the youth wing of Dicko’s unofficial movement. But Keïta didn’t come good, and in the summer of 2020, Dicko helped to engineer his downfall. Until the military takeover later that year, Dicko could almost smell the ultimate prize – a constitutional change that would turn his informal position as Mali’s ‘moral authority’ (a label given to him by the media) into an official one in an Islamised or even fully Islamic republic. That would have brought jihadist leaders into the political process, and driven Doumbi, and others like him, into the wilderness.

Timbuktu Institute, “Mali: Évolutions de la transition et nouvelles dynamiques sociopolitiques et sécuritaires au nord,” January 2023. Here’s the table of contents:

Kalidou Sy, “Le désarroi de Youssouf, le policier qui failli arrêter Malam Dicko,” afriqueXXI, 6 January 2023. Amazing details here:

À Djibo, le rapport à la religion a toujours été mesuré. Différents courants de l’islam cohabitaient. « Il y avait deux confréries : la Tidjaniya (les Doucouré) et la mosquée de Woursababé (les Cissé). Ces derniers furent les premiers à s’être installés à Djibo. » Mais au début des années 1990, l’arrivée d’un homme a tout changé : « C’était en 1991 ou en 1992, je ne sais plus. Le père de Malam Dicko est arrivé d’un village malien situé à la frontière du Burkina. »

Il commence par demander une parcelle de terre pour construire sa mosquée – requête qui est acceptée par les Tidjanes et les Woursababés. Avec ses discours « révolutionnaires », il cherche à déconstruire l’ordre social et n’hésite pas à s’en prendre ouvertement à ses pairs marabouts. « Dans ses prêches, il soutient qu’un marabout ne doit pas attendre d’aumône, qu’il doit travailler lui-même, qu’il ne faut pas faire de mariages fastueux avec de grosses dépenses pour ensuite vivre dans la précarité », explique Youssouf. Cela ne plaît guère aux autres confréries, d’autant qu’au fil du temps, le nombre de ses adeptes a augmenté.

Au début des années 2010, son fils Ibrahim Malam Dicko a pris la relève. Très éloquent, il était vu comme un gourou par ses adeptes : « Il prêchait du social, se remémore Youssouf. Malam disait qu’il n’est pas permis d’égorger plus de deux moutons durant les fêtes. Il avait beaucoup d’adeptes qui voyaient en ses discours une révolution au sens noble de leur islam. »

James Courtwright, “A Small Town in Ghana Erupted in Violence. Were Jihadists Fueling the Fight?” New Lines Magazine, 25 January 2023. An excerpt:

New Lines traveled to Bawku to investigate the conflict and found that, rather than creeping jihadism, residents, local politicians and community leaders described a dispute with deep historical and political roots being fueled by partisanship, social media and weapons proliferation. The war on terror may be on Ghana’s doorstep, but an eagerness to conflate local conflict with international jihadism may in fact only be fanning the flames further.

Wolfram Lacher, “Libya’s New Order,” New Left Review, 26 January 2023. Quoting:

Some might dismiss this episode [of fighting in Tripoli in August 2022] as yet another skirmish in an interminable conflict between the shifting armed alliances in Tripoli. And so it may be. But there is also a broader trend at work here. Over the years, these repeated confrontations have entrenched the power of several fearsome militias, which have become increasingly professionalized while gradually expanding their territory. Post-Qadhafi Libya offered exceptionally favourable conditions for such groups, most of which operate as official security forces and enjoy generous state funding. At first, these organizations were unruly, fractious and unambitious – prone to splits and petty internal rivalries. Yet over time they have developed centralized leadership structures and absorbed growing numbers of the former regime’s military and intelligence officers. The result has been the consolidation of a militia landscape that, in Tripoli alone, initially involved dozens of different armed groups.

Obi Anyadike, ” ‘Everyone knows somebody who has been kidnapped’: Inside Nigeria’s Banditry Epidemic,” The New Humanitarian, 30 January 2023. A key paragraph:

The most feared bandit leaders levy taxes, settle local disputes, and have praise songs sung about them. These are young men, typically in their 30s, casual in their use of violence, who claim a political solidarity with the pastoralists even though Fulani – like Ismael – are among their victims. When not feuding, they cooperate with one another in shifting alliances, but also compete in a perpetual arms race for deadlier military equipment. 

Jared Miller, “The Politics and Profit of a Crisis: A Political Marketplace Analysis of the Humanitarian Crisis in Northeast Nigeria,” World Peace Foundation, 1 February 2023. An important section (p. 24):

Since the conflict began, more than $3.8 billion in international aid has flowed into the northeast. In 2020, UNOCHA estimated that $1.1 billion was needed to provide necessary humanitarian aid to an estimated 7.8 million people, 3.8 million of whom needed food security assistance. The diversion of humanitarian aid is not unique to Nigeria, but it has become part of the political economy of the northeast and has created vested interests in a continued crisis.

[…]

Humanitarian actors report immense pressure to shift the narrative, and the corresponding agenda, from humanitarian response to development despite the continued insecurity or lack of government control. This is a call that is shared by both the Nigerian government and Nigerians in the northeast, though their reasons are likely very different. Some sought a return to normal life while others may have seen it as an opportunity to use development rents to fund their political budgets. Regardless of the motivation, collective calls to shift to development also came with an input of funds for rebuilding.

Roundup of Some Recent Reports on the Sahel and Nigeria – 13 January 2023

Delina Goxho and Selina Daugalies, “European Aphasia in the Sahel: Stabilising How?” Konrad Adenaur Stiftung, 5 December 2022.

Jonathan Guiffard, “Security Collapse in Mali and Burkina Faso: What Implications? – Anticipating the Crisis Through the Eyes of Jihadists,” Institut Montaigne, 11 January 2023.

Maxime Audinet and Emmanuel Dreyfus, “A Foreign Policy by Proxies? The Two Sides of Russia’s Presence in Mali,” IRSEM, September 2022 (updated January 2023).

Kingsley Madueke, “Driving Destruction: Cattle Rustling and Instability in Nigeria,” Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 11 January 2023. An excerpt:

This report focuses on Zamfara and Plateau states, where cattle rustling has fuelled large-scale violence and instability over the past decade. The report also explores the concerning southward diffusion of cattle rustling, with an emphasis on Kwara and Oyo states. While some underlying causes of cattle rustling cut across regions, this research highlights that local drivers of cattle rustling and instability are often distinct and therefore require context-specific responses.

My New Article in the Journal Africa

In the journal Africa, I have a new article out titled “Northern Nigerian intellectuals, Sudan, and the “eclectic style” in contemporary Islamic thought.” It’s part of a special issue on “Remapping the study of Islam and Muslim cultures in postcolonial Nigeria.”

Here’s the abstract:

This article examines two northern Nigerian Muslim intellectuals – Aminu Sagagi and Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (enthroned as Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II of Kano, 2014–20) – whose approaches, in different ways, exemplify a self-consciously eclectic Islamic intellectual style. Their eclecticism breaks with categories familiar from the study of Islam in Africa and Nigeria, categories such as Sufis, Salafis and Islamists. The eclecticist style – or rather, styles – draw on northern Nigerian Islamic modernist traditions, the curriculum and atmosphere of Sudan’s International University of Africa (where both of these Nigerian intellectuals received degrees), and a wider set of global influences. Given their diverse intellectual formation, the eclecticists’ writings and careers allow for an examination of the translocal exchanges that have shaped what is sometimes perceived as a self-contained unit called ‘northern Nigeria’. The article further explores how the eclecticist style manifests in legal and political thought, analysing the critiques that Sagagi and Sanusi made of sharīʿa implementation in northern Nigerian states in the early 2000s. The article draws on Nigerian and Sudanese sources, as well as unpublished and published writings by Sagagi and Sanusi, to describe their intellectual trajectories and outlooks and offer a portrait of the eclecticist style.

Nigeria: Notes on the Ekiti and Osun Gubernatorial Elections

Two southwestern Nigerian states, Ekiti and Osun, hold gubernatorial elections at a critical point in the political calendar, namely some 6-9 months before presidential, legislative, and (most – 30 of 36) gubernatorial elections. Ekiti and Osun are not the only states to hold off-cycle gubernatorial elections, as various court cases, re-run elections, impeachments, and other factors have moved six states’ gubernatorial elections from the main, four-year political cycle to their own, four-year cycles. Ekiti and Osun have become particularly important since 2014 because of the political shift that occurred in Nigeria from approximately 2013-2015 after the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), whose presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari won election in 2015 (after running three times previously under other parties’ banners) and then won re-election in 2019. The APC is in crude terms a coalition between the north and the southwest. Political parties’ performance – i.e., the performance of the APC and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP, which held the presidency 1999-2015 and is now Nigeria’s main opposition party) – in the Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial elections can give some indication of where the southwest might go in the presidential elections the following year.

Despite all that, I wouldn’t call Ekiti and Osun “bellwether” states – I’m not sure such a thing exists in Nigeria. The gubernatorial results do tend to roughly presage the presidential results in those particular states, though, whether because the gubernatorial results reflect the voters’ feelings about the parties overall, or because incumbents can assist in tipping elections to make sure their party’s presidential candidate wins.

In 2014, an APC incumbent lost Ekiti while another APC incumbent held Osun. Buhari went on to lose Ekiti and win Osun in the 2015 presidential elections.

In 2018, an APC challenger (and former governor) took Ekiti back from the PDP, although he won by fewer than 20,000 votes out of over 400,000 cast. Meanwhile, the APC held Osun, but after a tumultuous and hotly contested process that saw a re-run election after the initial outcome, a PDP victory, was tossed out. The following year, Buhari won both Ekiti and Osun, although his margin in Osun was very small, roughly 10,000 votes.

In 2022, the Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial elections both concluded recently – Ekiti on June 18 and Osun on July 16. In Ekiti, the APC candidate won ( Abiodun Oyebanji, who now succeeds term-limited APC Governor Kayode Fayemi) with 53% of the vote as the PDP and another party, the Social Democratic Party, split the rest of the vote – the Social Democrats actually placed second. In Osun, the 2022 election was a rematch of the 2018 election, but with a different outcome – this time, the PDP’s Ademola Adeleke defeated incumbent APC Governor Gboyega Oyetola.

The Ekiti and Osun elections also offer, each cycle, some idea of how Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is performing. You can read a laudatory take on INEC’s performance in Ekiti here. The author notes, “For the first time in the history of elections in Nigeria, INEC  transmitted results electronically, and the Ekiti election was the first to be conducted after President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Electoral Act 2022 into law.” The same author has written a separate analysis of the Osun election and the APC’s loss, attributing it to tensions between Oyetola and his predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola, as well as to “the pain of the 2018 Osun governorship election – many still believe Adeleke was robbed of his mandate during the last election in the state.”

In any case, if the pattern from 2014-2015 and 2018-2019 holds, the APC and its presidential candidate, the veteran southwestern politician Bola Tinubu, could expect to win Ekiti but not Osun. More broadly, the APC does not have to sweep the southwest to win the entire election, but it does have win big there and in the north, in my view, to win its third presidential election in a row. The rivalry between Oyetola and Aregbesola is just one small example of how many personalities, interests, and decisions Tinubu will have to juggle in the coming months.

My List of Five Books to Read on Post-Independence Nigeria

An interesting project called Shepherd asked me to contribute a list of five recommended books to their site, on a topic of my choice – so I chose post-independence Nigeria. You can read my list here.

Some Thoughts on Blasphemy and Anti-Blasphemy Violence – for Foreign Exchanges

At Derek Davison’s Foreign Exchanges, I wrote last week about “the politics of blasphemy” (that’s also the title of the piece. I found the topic extremely hard to write about with the delicacy it merits, given that I neither want to excuse violence against innocents nor do I want to play into Islamophobia. The piece takes recent violence in Nigeria as a point of departure but also touches on incidents from Mauritania, Sudan, and elsewhere.

Nigeria: The Two Major Parties’ Presidential Candidates Face Off for the Next Eight Months

Nigeria will hold an open presidential election in February 2023; current President Muhammadu Buhari (elected 2015, re-elected 2019) is term-limited. In the last two weeks, both of the two major parties have concluded their presidential primaries. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which ruled Nigeria from 1999 to 2015, selected former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (in office 1999-2007) as its nominee. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) selected former Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu (in office 1999-2007) as its nominee. One might say this is the least surprising outcome, given the stature of both men and their longstanding, open ambition to be president. Atiku was the runner-up in 2019 against Buhari, and Tinubu was the main architect of the APC, which formed in 2013 as a vehicle for Buhari’s fourth run for the presidency, but also as a compromise between opposition politicians in the north (Buhari’s turf) and the southwest (Tinubu’s).

The official campaign period is from 28 September 2022 to 23 February 2023 but I would say that the real-life campaign is now in full swing.

Given the advantages of incumbency, I would put Tinubu as the early favorite to win. On the other hand, both of the major parties are fractious coalitions, and a rebellion by part or all of the electorate is a possibility, especially given that both Tinubu and Abubakar represent a political class – septuagenarian, wealthy, careerist, and often vague on policy prescriptions (by choice, not due to lack of awareness of possible policies) – that is inherently distant from the lives of most ordinary Nigerians. Complex expectations about rotational dynamics and ethnoreligious balancing also come into play; Tinubu is a southerner and Abubakar is a northerner, Tinubu is Yoruba whereas Abubakar is Fulani, although both are Muslims.

Biographies of both men are legion, but the profiles from the BBC – of Abubakar and of Tinubu – are a good place to start if you are not familiar with either or both of them.