Nigeria Elections Diary: A View from Kano by Mallam Usman Aliyu (Hausa)

Editor’s Introduction (by Alex Thurston):

Nigeria held presidential and legislative elections on February 25, and will hold state elections on March 18. I asked an old friend and colleague, Mallam Usman Aliyu of Kano, if he would be willing to keep an election season diary and allow me to publish it here. For over a decade, Mallam Usman’s observations about local and national politics have shaped and informed my own understanding of Nigeria. Although written in the moment, I think these entries already have staying power. Below is the Hausa text. I will briefly summarize here:

In the first entry (from February 10), Mallam Usman reflects back on the party primaries and what he sees as a vigorous, four-way competition for the presidency between Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso. He also discusses the allegations of ill-health and corruption that Tinubu and Atiku’s campaigns leveled at one another, and also covers in detail the gubernatorial candidates in Kano (the most populous state in the north).

In the second entry (from February 21), Mallam Usman describes the mood in Nigeria and in Kano on the eve of the elections, especially amid the cash shortages – and he brings in ordinary people’s views of why outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari authorized the controversial effort to exchange old bank notes for new ones.

In the third entry (from March 1), Mallam Usman analyzes the election results and describes people’s reactions to them and to the conduct and the expense of the elections. He concludes by noting that some in Atiku’s camp felt that Kwankwaso (who won heavily in Kano) in some way tipped the election to Tinubu.

In any case, these brief summaries don’t do the full diary justice. Hausa speakers may be interested to read the whole thing.

February 10, 2023

ZABEN 2023

Duba da lokacin da muke ciki a yanzu, zabe ya gabato, wato zaben Shugaban Kasa  da na sauran mukamai: Gwamnonin jihohi da kuma na yan majalisun tarayya da na jihohi wanda ake sa ran fara gabatarwa ranar 25 ga wannan  watan. Kamar dai yadda hukumar zabe mai zaman kanta wato INEC karkashin shugaban wato Professor Mahmoud Yakubu ta tsara. Ana sa ran gudanar da zaben Shugaban Kasa da na Yan majalisun tarayya ranar 25 ga watan wanda daga bayan sa zasu gudanar da na jihohin Kasar gaba daya.

Idan mukayi laakari da Manyan Jam’iyunyake da za’a buga zaben sun hada da PDP, APC, NNPP da kuma LP.

APC – ASIWAJU BOLA AHMAD TINUBU

PDP – ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR

NNPP – ENGR. RABIU MUSA KWANKWASO

LP – PETER OBI

Kowane dan kasa a yanzu yana hasashe ne akan daya daga cikin wannan Jami’iyu shine zai lashe wannan gagarumin zabe, yayinda Mutane da dama sukace wannan zaben fah ya banbanta da sauran zabukan da akayi a baya domin kuwa a cikin yan Takarar da suke cikin wannan Jam’iyu guda 4 ana ganin kowa zai iya lashe wannan da kuma tsarin da Hukumar Zabe INEC wanda ganin baayi Magudin zabe ba kuma baa samu abinda a zaben baya aka samu ba wato (Inconclusive) wanda hakika a zaben 2019 ya zama babban abinda yaciwa Talakawa tuwo a kwarya har suke ganin anyi abinda akayi a wannan zaben, to Alhamdulillah shi Shugaban Hukumar Zabe INEC (Mahmuod Yakubu) ya bada tabbacin cewa a wannan zabe fa babu maganar Magudin Zabe da kuma Inconclusive, sakamakon hakane mutane suke hasashen tabbas wannan zaben fah zai bada mamaki ganin kowane Dan Takara yanada nasa Jama’ar kuma kowane Dan Takara a cikin Mutane 4 din dana lissafa ka iya darewa shugabancin wannan kasa duba ga wasu alkaluma na siyasa da kuma alamu da suke bayyana.

Idan muka faro tun daga Farko wato Zaben Fidda Gwani (Primary Election) manyan jam’iyu irinsu APC da PDP sun sha gwagwarmaya matuka kafin su Fidda guda 1 a ciki ya zama Amintaccen Dan Takara, idan mukayi duba ga APC wato Jam’iya mai mulki an shiga zaben fidda Gwani da yan Takara 10 wanda 3 daga ciki sukafi Shahara sune, Bola Ahmad Tinubu, Yemi Osibanjo da kuma  Rotimi Amaechi yayin da Yan Takara 6 suka Janyewa Tinubu daya kuma ya janyewa Osibanjo. Daga karshe dae Bola Tinubu ya lashe zabe da mafificin rinjaye. Sai Jami’iyar PDP inda mutane 3 din da sukafi Shahara sune Alh. Atiku Abubakar, Nyesome Wike da kuma Bukola Saraki. A daya bangaren wato NNPP da kuma LP (Labour Party) basu sha wahala wajen fitar da yan Takararsu ba tun bayan da Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ya fice daga Jami’iyar PDP ya shiga Jam’iyar NNPP tare da nuna kudiransa na tsaya musu Takarar Shugabancin kasa haka yasa basu bata lokaci wajen tunani ko kokarin gabatar da Zaben Fidda gwani ba suka bashi wannan Takara domin kasancewarsa sananne kuma goge a harkar siyasa. Sai kuma Peter Obi na Jam’iyar Labour Party shima tun bayan daya Fice daga Jam’iyar PDP ya nuna kudirinsa wajen zamar musu dan Takara basuyi wata-wata ba suka amince domin yayi musu wannan Takarar kasancewarsa masani ne a Siyasa kuma yayi Gwamna a Jihar Anambra.

Akwai labarai da sukayi ta yawo a Kafafen sada zumunta akan Cecekucen dake tsakanin Manyan yan takarar Shugabancin kasar nan wato Atiku Abubakar na Jam’iyar PDP da kuma Bola Tinubu na jam’iyar APC inda Yan takarar suke jefa wa junansu zarge-zarge game da lafiyarsu da kuma cin hanci da rashawa yayin da a lokacin ya rage saura baifi kwana 40 a gudanar da babban zaɓen ƙasar na 2023.

Tawagar yaƙin neman zaɓen Bola Tinubu na jam’iyyar APC mai mulki ce ta fara sukar Atiku Abubakar, na babbar jam’iyyar adawa ta PDP, tana mai cewa ba shi da lafiyar jagorantar Najeriya. Tinubu ya ce ya kamata ‘yan Najeriya su ji da lafiyar Atiku domin shi yana da cikakkiyar lafiyar gudanar da mulki a yayin da suke mayar da martani, tawagar kamfen ɗin Atiku ta zargi Tinubu da aikata cin hanci da rashawa, tana mai ikirarin cewa “Tinubu kansa shi ne cin hanci”. An daɗe ana tafka muhawara kan ƙoshin lafiyar ‘yan takarar shugabancin ƙasa a Najeriya, inda al-uma suke gudun maimaita abinda ya faru a baya bayan da Shugaba Buhari da ke mulki a yanzu ya shafe watanni yana jinya a Birtaniya a wa’adin mulkinsa na farko.

Cikin wata sanarwa da tawagar yaƙin nema zaɓen Bola Tinubu na APC ta fitar sun zargi Atiku Abubakar na PDP da ɓoye ainahin ƙoshin lafiyarsa da kuma cin hanci.

“Lokaci ya yi da Atiku Abubakar zai faɗi gaskiya game da abu biyu: ƙoshin lafiyarsa da kuma yadda ya haɗa baki da tsohon mai gidansa Olusegun Obasanjo wajen sace dukiyar Najeriya,” a cewar sanarwar da mai magana da yawun tawagar ya fitar, Bayo Onanuga.

Mista Onanuga ya ce tawagar Kamfe ɗin Atiku na ɓoye batun lafiyar ɗan takararsu ta hanyar ƙirƙirar ƙarairayi kan nasu ɗan takarar.

“Atiku ne ɗan takarar da ‘yan Najeriya ya kamata su damu a kansa. Ƙarairayi na tsawon lokaci da sauran hanyoyin kawar da hankali sun daina aiki yanzu.

“Tabbas Atiku ba shi da lafiya kuma hanyoyin da ake bi wajen ɓoyewa sun yi kaɗan.”

Da ya ke mayar da martani game da zarge-zargen, kakakin tawagar kamfe ɗin Atiku Kola Ologbondiyan, ya ce abin dariya ne ganin yadda APC ke yi wa ɗan takararsu ƙagen rashin lafiya.

“Kazalika, shashanci ne yunƙurin da Tinubu ya ke yi, wanda ya yi shuhura da zama cin hanci shi kansa, na ɓata sunan ɗan takarar PDP,” in ji shi.

Sanarwar ba ta gushe ba sai da ta zargi Tinubu da mu’amala da miyagun ƙwayoyi. A siyasar Najeriya, ba sabon abu ba ne ‘yan takara su dinga jifan junansu da manyan zarge-zarge irin waɗannan a bainar jama’a. Sai dai kuma ba za a taɓa ganinsu tare suna ce-ce-ku-ce a juna ba ballantana rikici.

Rashin manufofi ne ke jawo irin waɗannan munanan zarge-zarge tsakanin PDP da APC a Najeriya, a cewar Farfesa Kamilu Sani Fagge, wani masanin kimiyyar siyasa a Jami’ar Bayero ta Kano a lokutta daban daban da ya ke yin fashin bakin siyasar Kasar nan.

“Wannan al’amari ya nuna irin yadda siyasarmu take, saboda ‘yan takarar ba su da wani tsari na tunkarar matsalolin da suka addabi ƙasa shi ya sa ake ta zargin juna da kalaman ɓatanci da siyasar banga,” in ji shi.

Farfesa Fagge ya ce irin waɗannan kalamai ba za su yi wani tasiri ba a kan masu zaɓe.

“Ba zai sauya ra’ayin wani mai jefa ƙuri’a ba don ya zaɓi wani takara.”

Haka nan, masanin kimiyyar siyasar na ganin cewa kalaman za su ƙara zafafa yayin da zaɓe ke ƙara ƙaratowa, “amma da zarar an yi zaɓe sai ka ji shuru, a bar magoya baya da cecekuce”.

Wasu daga cikin mutanen Najeriya suna ganin babu babban abinda yake damun Kasar nan a yanzu face cin hanci da rashawa da kuma rashin samun lafiyayyen Shugaban da zai jagorance su kuma suke gudun kara fadawa wannan tarkon. Hakan yayi tasiri sosai wajen sakawa wasu yan Najeriya shakku akan wadannan yan Takara guda 2 wato Atiku da Tinubu, yayinda a daya bangaren kuma Engr. Kwankwaso da kuma Peter Obi suka sake samun damar cigaba da Kamfen da wannan dama da suka samu akan abokan Karawarsu.

A yanzu ya rage baifi saura kwana 10 a shiga babban zabe yayin da yan takara suke ta kokarin zagaya Garuruwa domin jaddada kudirinsu na shugabantar wannan kasa, abunda yake yawo a yanzu shine ikirarin da Dan Takarar jami’iyar APC Bola Tinubu akan an canja kudi kuma ana wahalar mai saboda talakawa su tsani Jam’iyar APC kuma ya fadi zabe a fadarsa kamar kamshin mutuwa yan Jam’iyarsa sukeyi masa, kwatsam sai akaji Gwamnan Jihar Kaduna Nasir El-Rufa’I yana cewa wasu manya a Villa basa goyon bayan Tinubu a yayinda jama’ar Gari kuma suke ganin karara wannan Magana da Mai Girma Buhari yake.

Idan akazo fanin raayi da kuma cancanta mutane da dama sun fadi albarkacinsu da kuma hasashe akan wanda ake tunanin zai iya lashe wannan zabe. Mutane da dama sun fadi raayinsu game da wanda suka cancanta da wanda kuma suke hasashen wanda zai lashe zabe. Wasu sunce indae maganar cancanta ake to fa Bola Tinubi baya cikin wanda suka cancanta sakamakon shekarunsa sunja kuma bashida cikakkiyar lafiya Bugu da kari kuma ana zarginsa da safarar miyagun kwayoyi, bugu da kari kuma ga yanayin da jama’a suke tunanin jam’iyar APC ta saka mutane tun daga lokacin da suka karbi mulkin kasa shekara 8 kenan ga kuma wahalar mai da kudi da ake fuskanta a yanzu da zabe ya gabato, tabbas wannan ka iya shafar shi dan takarar APC Tinubu. Sannan kuma mutanen Arewa suna ganin a cikin manufofin Tinubi babu wani abu da zai amfani yan Arewa, hakan ma yana iya kawo masa nakasu wajen cin zabe.

A daya bangaren kuma mutane da yawa suna ganin Atiku Abubakar ma bai cancanci zama Shugaban kasa ba sakamakon tun daga primary election duk wani abu daya shafi yakin neman zabensa yana amfani da kudi shiyasa ma mutane suke hasashen tabbas idan yaci zabe jama’a zasu sha wahala saboda tunaninsa dan kudinsa aka zabeshi kuma yanada kudirin mayar abubuwa da dama hannun yan kasuwa wanda jama’a suke ganin hakan wahala zai karawa yan Najeriya. Wasu da yawa sunce bashida gogewa da jajircewar da ake bukata saboda mukamin mataimakin shugaban kasa ya rike wanda yake daidai da dan zaman banza kuma baisan kukan talakawa da kuma abinda suke bukata ba. Bugu da kari ga matsalar rashin cikakkiyar lafiya da kuma shekaru da shima suka cimmasa wanda yan Najeriya suna ganin hakan bazai bashi cikakkiyar dammar gudanar da mulkin wannan kasa.

A bangaren Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso kuwa kasancewa ta dan Kano banci karo da rashin cancantarsa da yawa ba saidai masu ganin idan yaci mulki yanada riko kuma baya yafiya shiyasa wasu suke ganin zaiyi amfani da wannan damar wajen Taka duk wanda yakeso wanda kuma talakawan Najeriya bashi suke bukata a yanzu ba. Sannan kuma mutanen kudancin Najeriya suna zargin idan yaci mulki to fa zai karkato da abubuwa da dama zuwa Arewa saboda kasancewarsa mutum mai kabilanci. Wasu kuma suna ganin abinda zai hanashi cin zabe bai huce fitowarsa a cikin karamar jam’iyar da baa dade da kafata ba kuma jama’ar mu musamman na kauyuka sunfi sanin jam’iyar PDP da APC kuma wannan babban nakasu ne ga Rabiu Kwankwaso.

A qarshe idan mukazo maganar Dan Takarar Labour Party wato Peter Obi kaso 95% na mutanen arewacin Najeriya basu san Peter Obi ba saboda dalilai guda 2 na 1, Ya fito a Jam’iyar da baa santa ba na 2, baiyiwa Najeriya wani abun azo a gani da har zasu sanshi ba. Da yawa suna ganin idan ma ace an sanshi kamar sauran Yan Takara to fa bashida gogewar mulki kasancewar Gwamna yayi a wani karamin garin da baifi yawan mutanen Local Government daya ba a Kano wato Anambra kuma bashida cikakkiyar nagartar zama Shugaban wannan kasa.

Idan muka dawo batun wanda ake ganin zai iya lashe zabe da kuma dalilai;

1. Dan takarar Jam’iyar APC wato Tinubu zai iya lashe zabe sakamakon da yawa mutanen Lagos suna sonsa kuma ana ganin suna cikin garurwan da suke da yawan al-umma a Najeriya da kuma wanda suke yarensa zasuyi masa kara, sannan kuma idan aka duba wanda ya dauka a Mataimaki Kashim Shatima shima mutum ne mai Jama’a a jahar Borno wanda ka iya taimakawa wajen ganin Tinubu yaci zabe.

2. Dan takarar Jam’iyar PDP Atiku Abubakar kusan shi mutane suke ganin tabbas wannan shekarar tasa ce saboda a zaben baya kusan yayi kankankan da Shugaba Buhari wanda shine akan mulki a wannan lokaci shiyasa suke ganin wannan karon zai iya cin zabe kuma da yawa suna ganin shine zai ceto kasar nan daga halin da take ciki. Sannan mutanen Arewa maso Gabas sunyi alwashin sun gaji da yan Arewa ta ta yamma suna mulkarsu suna shan wahala shiyasa sukace suma fa wannan karon nasu zasu zaba.

3. Dan takarar Jam’iyar NNPC Rabiu kwankwaso shine na 2 a jerin wanda suka kasance favourite saboda masu ganin duk cikin yan takarar yafisu cancanta da kuma gogewar mulki saboda ya riqe mukamai da dama fiye da sauran yan takara hakama yafi dukkan sauran yan takara mataki a karatu wanda da yawa suke ganin matakin iliminsa ya kai ya jagoranci wannan kasa kuma ya ceto ta daga halin da take ciki saboda jajircewarsa a wajen shugabanci kuma ya kasance mai fada da cika duk abinda yayi alkawari a lokacin dayayi mulki a Kano da kuma sauran mukaman daya rike. Mutane da yawa harda yan kudu suna kara bashi nasara saboda mataimakinsa mutum ne mai mutane hakan na iya sawa wasu daga cikin mutanen kudi su zabi kwankwaso saboda mataimakinsa. Duk wanda zai bude baki akansa saidai yafadi wani abun daban amma indae maganar cancanta ake to ba shakka Kwankwaso yafi duk sauran yan takara cancanta.

4. Dan takarar Jam’iyar Labour Party Peter Obi shine na karshe a hasashen mutane sakamakon rashin saninsa da baayi a arewa ba da kuma kasancewa mutanen Arewa sunfi mutanen Kudu yawa hakan zaiyi matukar shafar nasararsa.

BABBAN ZABEN GWAMNA JIHAR KANO

Kimanin kwanaki 25 ko kasa da haka suka rage zaben Gwamna a Jihar Kano, zaben da zai kasance mafi daukar hankali a Arewacin Nigeria. Zabe ne tsakanin Manyan Jami’iyu guda 4;

1. Abba Kabir Yusuf (NNPP Party)
2. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna (APC)
3. Muhammad Abacha (PDP)
4. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada (ADP)

Idan muka dauki wadannan yan takara daya bayan daya muka tattauna cancantar su da kuma abinda ka iya hana kowannensu hawa wannan kujera zamuyi gamo da abubuwan ban mamaki a ciki;

1. Abba Kabir Yusuf (NNPP) mafi yawan Al-ummar Jihar Kano musamman na cikin Kano da kewaye sun raja’a akan Abba saboda kasancewarsa tare da Rabiu Kwankwaso da kuma duba da nasarar daya samu a zaben daya gabata wanda shine yakasance shiga Zaben sa na farko a siyasa mutane mafi rinjaye suke ganin shine ya dace ya hau wannan kujera musamman yan cikin garin Kano suna ganin wannan lokacin fa dan cikin kwaryar Kano sukeso. Babbar matsalar da zai iya samu bai huce kasancewarsa a sabuwar Jam’iyar da yawanci mutanen kauye basa banbancewa sun fi sanin PDP da APC.

2. Nasir Yusuf Gawuna (APC) ya zama kamar shine na 2 da mutane suke tunanin da hasashen zai hau kujerar mulki wanda dama shine mataimakin gwamna a yanzu. Saidai Jama’a da dama suna ganin rashin cancantarsa saboda abinda suka aikata a zaben daya gabata dashi da Mataimakinsa a yanzu wanda ake ganin rashin sanin darajar Dan Adam ne mutane subi layi cikin rana suyi zabe saboda son zuciya da kwadayin mulki su yaga sakamakon zabe. Wannan ka iya zama babban tabo a gareshi, yayinda wasu da dama suke ganin mutum ne mai fuska 2 yana nuna son hadin kai da kuma taimakawa al-ummar jihar Kano bayan a zuciya da ayyukansa mutane basuga hakan a zahiri ba, sannan kuma ana ganin abubuwan da yake cewa zaiyi idan yah au mulki meyasa a matsayinsa na mataimakin gwamna bai bawa gwamna shawara yayi ba lokacin da yake kan mulki hakan ya fito da yaudara a cikin lamarinsa.

3. Sha’aban Ibrahim Sharada (ADP) fitowar Sha’aban takarar Gwamna ya zama abu mai matukar mamaki a idon mutanen Kano yayinda mafi akasari ma suke zargin takararsa bata gaske bace contract aka bashi wanda daga karshe zai janye ya hada kai da wani. Babban abinda mutane basu fahimta ba shine Sha’aban mutum ne mai al-umma a jihar Kano wanda ko baici zabe ba to fa zai ragewa yan takara kuri’a. Kuma kasancewarsa a cikin karamar Jam’iyar da a cikin gari ma baa santa ba sosai bare kuma cikin kauyuka ka iya bashi matsala a wannan zabe da zaayi.

4. Muhammad Abacha (PDP) Al-ummar Jihar Kano sun gaza gane me yake faruwa a Jam’iya PDP a Kano, yau ace Abacha ne dan takara gobe ace Sadiq Wali shiyasa ma mutane da yawa suke ganin jam’iyar PDP bata shirya shiga wannan zabe da zai gabata nanda kwanakin da basufi 32 ba. Jama’a da yawa suna ganin wannan kamar wasan kwaikwayo ne kuma hakan yasa baa saka jam’iyar PDP a lissafin zaben gwamnan jihar Kano. Idan ma ace Abacha ko Sadiq ne dan takara to fa dukkansu babu abinda suka sani akan siyasa da kuma mu’amala da mutane. Rashin kamfen da basuyi ba sakamakon rigimar cikin gida da suke fama da ita yasa ake ganin to fa tabbas lokaci ya kure musu.

A karshe zan rufe wannan rubutu nawa da cewa tabbas a Kano za’ayi zaben da aka dade baayi kamar sa ba kuma hasashen mutane da yawa ya nuna koma waye zaici wannan zabe to fa zaici ne da fifikon kuri’a kadan saboda yan takarar da suka fito wannan zabe.

A karshe muna Addu’ar Allah ya zaba mana shugabanni na gari wanda suke da niyyar gyara ba wanda Zasu yi wadaka da dukiyar al’umma ba.

Duk da cewa mutane da dama suna ganin wannan zabe ba lalle ne ya yiwu ba amma dai shi shugaban hukumar zaben mai zaman kanta wato INEC Professor Mahmoud Yakubu ya kuma ya sake kuma maimaitawa a kowanne lokaci cewa hukumar sa zata bada mamaki kuma zata gudanar da zabe mafi sahihanci a cikin tarihin zabukan wannan kasa tamu Nigeria.

Wani sabon batu kuma wanda ya fito ranar Talata 7/2/2023 shine wata sanarwa da gamayyar wasu jam’iyu guda goma sha uku a cikin sha takwas suka fidda shine  sun cimma matsaya akan cewa akwai yiwuwar ba zasu shiga cikin wannan zabe mai zuwa ba duba da yanayin da alumma ke ciki na halin matsi kama daga wahalar man fetur da kuma matsi dangane da wannan canjin kudi da aka yi duba da dan takaitattecn lokacin da Babban Bankin kasar nan ta bayar wanda ya haifar da matsi da kuma cecekuce a tsakanin mutane, Yan takarkaru da kuma shugannin siyasun kasar nan.idan har hakan ta tabbata to lalle sai mu ce wannan zabe mai zuwa yana fuskantar tazgado wanda kuma ka iya sakawa a daga ko kuma ma zaben ya zamanto ba mai iya yiwuwa ba gaba daya.A halin da ake ciki kuma a yau din nan Laraba 9 ga wata ana ci gaba da samun labarin zanga zanga a garuruwa da dama Kamar Jihar Ogun, Edo, Kogi da sauransu haka kuma a na ci  gaba da samun labarin mutane a jihohi daban daban suna lalata na’urar ATM da kuma yunkurin farmaki ga bankuna duka dai domin nuna rashin jin dadi kan wannan batu. wannan dai shine halin da Kasar nan ta samu kanta wanda kuma ka iya jawowa a dage zaben ko kuma ma hana iya gudanar da zaben ma gaba daya.

February 21, 2023

Yayin da ya rage saura kwana 3 daidai a shiga babban zaben shugaban kasa da yan majalissar tarayya kuma ake gab da rufe yakin neman zabe (campaign), Jama’a na kara kokawa kan matsin rayuwa da ake ciki sakamakon canjin kudin da aka samu yayinda hakan ya bude fuskoki guda 2 a bangaren siyasa. 

Na 1 wasu daga cikin gwamnonin Arewa da suka kasance yan jam’iya mai ci a yanzu wayo APC suna ganin kamar shugaban kasa fa kamshin mutuwa yakeyi musu saboda yana ganin shi fa ya gama mulkinsa shiyasa bai damu su ci zabe ko su fadi ba kuma hakan ya nuna kamar akwai wata a kasa tsakanin su da gwamnonin da kuma shi shugaban kasa.

Amma a cewar shugaba Buhari an yi wannan canjin kudi ne sakamakon yaji kishin-kishin cewar manyan yan siyasa musamman Gwannoni sun tanadi kudade masu tarin yawa domin suyi amfani dasu lokaci zabe domin siyan kuri’ar talakawa, wanda shugaban yake ganin hakan ya saba da dokar kasa, kuma yunkurin da yakeyi a yanzu zaa iya cewa yana iya kokarinsa wajen ganin a wannan zabe na 2023 an gabatar da zabe sahihi kuma mai inganci. 

Na 2 a bangaren talakawan gari kuma suna kokawa matuka sakamakon wahalar kudi wanda suke ganin ya zama kamar rijiya ta bayar da ruwa guga ya hana, mutane sun yi aiki tukuru wajen neman kudi amma kashe su ya zama wahala, duk inda ake samun kudi (cash) sun zama samunsu wahala koda zaka samu kuwa sai kabi dogon layi kuma ranka ya baci sannan a karshe ma bazaka samu abinda zai isheka ba. Ya zama abinda ake cewa kaida kudinka amma saidai idan zaka fita kaje wajen masu POS kamar kana maular su taimaka maka da abinda zakayi transport kuma kaci abinci, Jama’a da dama sun ce wannan wahala da ake basu DANBAKARA suda jam’iya mai mulki yayinda kowa yake Allah wadai da wannan matsin rayuwa.

Wasu tunanin su shine Shugaban kasa yayi wannan canjin domin tabbatar da sahihin zabe saidai ya zama abinda hausawa suke cewa bayan wuya sai dadi to tabbas wannan itace wuyar kuma idan muka jure da yardar Allah a cewar su  zamu samu dammar zabar shugabanni da kanmu kuma zaa bamu wanda muka zaba.

Zaben bana yazo da tsaruka na musamman ba kamar wanda akayi a baya ba domin na samu tattaunawa da waddanda suke zuwa  yin  training na aikin zaben wanda aka fara ranar Juma’a, kamar yadda suka Gani dai gaskiya ne zaben ya zo da sababbin abubuwa kamar amfani da na’urar BVAS wajen tantance duk wanda zai kada kuri’a kuma a wannan zabe babu zancen tantance mai yin zabe ta hanyar takarda wato (manual identification) sai na’urar BVAS ta tantanceka sannan zaka samu dammar kada kuri’a. 

A Daya bangaren kuma abinda mutane suke fada na cewa anya zaayi zaben nan ba tare da an daga ba na iya faruwa saboda alamu sun nuna karara hukumar gudanar da zabe INEC batada isassun kudaden gabatar da wannan zabe, akwai littafin da ake amfani dashi wajen bawa masu aikin zabe wato (Manual) a zaben baya an bawa kowane ma’aikaci nasa amma wannan zaben sai gashi an buge da hada ma’aikata 3 da manual daya wanda hakan na iya haifar da rashin fahimtar aikin ga maaikatan zabe.

A bangaren talakawan gari mutane da dama suna ganin akwai wasu dalilai da zai sa suyi kokari wajen ganin sun kawo sauyin gwamnati musamman al-ummar Arewacin Nigeria, wanda suke ganin ma babu wani mai hankali da zai kara zabar jam’iya mai ci a yanzu domin ikirarin da suke gani a shekara 8 da wannan jam’iya tayi mulki basu amfanawa talakawa wani abun azo a gani ba sai koma baya, tsananin rayuwa da tashin kaya masarufi da dai sauransu. A duk kwanakin da suke shudewa a cikin wannan yanayi Jam’iya mai mulki tana kara samun koma baya a bangaren mutanen saboda tsananin wahalar da akesha a yanzu daya rage kwana 3 kacal babban zabe. 

Ana gab da shiga wannan zabe ne akaji Dan Takarar PDP Atiku yana cika baki da bugun karji kan shifa yafi karfin Dan  Takararsa na APC Bola Tinubu har yake ganin koda sau 100 zaayi zabe tskaninsa da Tinubu to tabbas shine zaiyi nasara, hakan yasa wasu mutanen suke mamakin wannan Magana tasa har suke cewa to kenan da Tinubu kadai yake ganin zai goga ina ya bar dan Takarar NNPP wato Kwankwaso da kuma dan takarar LP Peter Obi. Babban hasashen da jamaa sukeyi kuwa shine abinda Hausawa suke fada na Dan Hakkin daka raina na iya faruwa dashi Atikun domin Kwankwaso da Peter Obi ba ababan rainawa bane a wannan zabe domin kuwa suma sunada magoya baya kuma musamman Kwankwaso kullum suna Karin samun goyon baya daga talakawan gari dama wasu jiga-jigai a manyan jam’iyu. 

Zaben Gwannoni Kuma  ya rage sati 2 da kuma kwana 3 yayinda manyan yan takara suka cigaba da yakin neman zabe (Campaign) 

Anan Kano babban abinda yake yawo a wajen mutane shine hukuncin da babbar kotun kasa ta yanke kan wanda zai tsayawa jam’iyar PDP takarar tsakanin Muhammad Abacha da Sadiq Wali inda kotu ta tabbatar da Sadiq Wali a matsayin halattaccen dan takarar gwamnan Jihar Kano wanda hakan yasa wasu jiga-jigan dake bayan Muhammad Abacha suka fice daga Jam’iyar zuwa sabuwar Jam’iyar NNPP domin a ganinsu uwar Jam’iya basuyi musu adalci ba kasancewar suna ganin kamar anyi amfani da karfin da tsagin Sadiq Wali suke dashi a jam’iyar wajen yi musu kamshin mutuwa, su kuwa hakan yasa suka fice suka bi tsohuwan mai gidansu Rabiu Kwankwaso, su kuma yan tsagin Aminu da sukayiwa nasara suke ganin yan tsagin Abacha sun cucesu wajen hargitsa musu jam’iya da bijiro da yan takarar bogi domin rabawa mutane hankali misali a karamar hukumar Tarauni , Adam Zaki ne dan takarar Majalissar jaha kwatsam kuma sai jiya muka wayi gari ana yawo da poster wani dan takarar daban shima karkashin jam’iyar ta PDP, tsagin Aminu Wali sun cigaba da cewa sun bata musu lokaci wajen rashin samun cikakkiyar damar yakin neman zabe (campaign) wanda suke ganin matukar suka fadi zabe to fa wannan dalilin ne yasa domin Jama’ar gari da dama har yanzu basu san waye halattaccen dan takara ba bare ma suyi tunanin kada masa kuri’a, domin a Kano maganar yan takara 3 kacal akeyi Abba, Gawuna da kuma Sha’aban. 

Saidai masu hasashe fa suna ganin sauran yan takarar dake kananun jam’iya irinsu Mal. Ibrahim Khalil su Salihu Tanko Yakasai suna iya kawowa duk mai kokarin cin zabe cikas domin suma sunada nasu jama’ar a boye kuma har gobe dukkansu kowa yana sa rai da lashe wannan zabe. A bangaren Jam’iyar APC kuwa dan takara Gawuna yana iya kokarinsa wajen shiga kauyuka da tabbatar musu da kudirinsa na dorawa akan inda mai Girma Gwamna ya tsaya kuma yana musu alkawarin tallafi ga mata da matasa yayinda jamaa suke ganin wannan fa bakomai bane face yaudara domin suna ganin a mulkin yanzun ma basu amfana ba bare kuma wanda suke tunanin idan Gawuna ya koma mulki to fa zaaci gaba da shan wahala da kuma kamshin mutuwa ga mutanen musamman yan Adaidaita Sahu da kuma wanda ake tashin su daga wajen sana’arsu ba tare da an nema musu wani ba, kuma tabbas wannan na iya kawo cikas ga kudirin shi dan takara duba da yawan yan adaidaita Sahu a Kano state 

A halin yanzu yan Adaidaita Sahu suna cewa babu mai hankalin da zai zabi wannan gwamnati. 

Ta bangaren Sha’aban Sharada na ADC kuwa jama’a sun ce sun ji shiru wanda haka ya dawo dasu kan zargin da sukeyi tun a farko na cewa takararsa bata gaske bace inda suke gasgata kewa kamar kwangila aka bashi domin ya kawowa jam’iyar APC cikas a wannan zaben tunda yanzu sunji shi baya wani motsi a lokacin da suke ganin ya dace fa ace ya motsa duba da kwanaki kadan ya rage wannan zabe. Ta bangaren NNPP kuwa Abba Gida Gida kuma ya kara dagewa wajen shiga lungu da sako domin ganin ya kara jawo hankalin alumma domin su kara zabarsa a karo na biyu bayan daya samu ruwan kuri’u a zaben daya gabata, wanda hakan yasa mafi akasarin mutane suke ganin a wannan karon fa kowane dan takara saidai ya hakura ya barwa Abba dan suna ganin kamar yanzu shine lokacinsa, bugu da kari shigowar manyan jam’iyar PDP cikin tafiyar NNPP irinsu Sagagi da sauransu hakan ma yasa ya kara farin jini kuma mafi soyuwa a wajen alumma duba da yadda yake tara mutane a wajen taronsa.

Babban abinda yake kwantarwa da jama’a hankali shine kokarin da shugaban INEC yakeyi wajen ganin anyi zabe mai sahihanci a wannan kakar zaben kuma anyi yaki da amfani da yan daba da wasu yan siyasa sukeyi da kuma matsalar sace akwati da aringizon kuri’u domin hanyar daya daukko ta nuna amfani da naurar computer wajen tura sakamakon zabe zuwa ga INEC kai tsaye.

A wani bangaren Kuma hankalin Jama’ ya tashi sakamakon daukewar sadarwa wato network service da ake maganar zaayi daga nan zuwa Juma’a domin dai ganin anyi zabe mai sahihanci. 

Wannan shine atakaice abinda ke faruwa a halin yanzu nan kasar dangane da wannan Zaben Mai zuwa.

March 1, 2023

Tun bayan kammala babban zaben shugaban kasa, sanatoci da kuma yan majalissar tarayya abubuwa da dama sun faru yayin zabe da kuma bayan zabe.

Daga cikin abubuwan da suka faru lokacin zabe sun hada da rashin kai kayan aikin zabe a lokacin zabe wanda ya saba da lokacin da akayi ka’ida na 8:30 inda wasu guraren sai 12 wasu 2 wasu ma 4 wanda hakan ya fusata masu kada kuri’a inda suke ganin yaya za’ayi su baro gidajensu tun 8 wasu ma basu karya ba amma ma’aikatan zabe da kayan zabe basu zo ba sai da lokaci ya kure , sannan kaidar kammala zabe shine karfe 2:30 sai dai duk wanda yake layi dole za’ayi masa amma sai da ta kai an kai har wajen karfe 9 na dare ana kada kuri’a, tabbas hakan ba karamin ci baya bane ga hukumar Inec saboda babu dalilin da zaisa su gaza shiryawa bayan lokutan da aka dauka wajen shirya wannan zabe, bugu da kari a kokarin da inec takeyi wajen ganin ta mayar da kowane akwati yawan mutane baifi 500 ba jama’a da dama an canja musu akwati yayinda aka kirkiri wasu sababbin akwatuna ba tare da mutane sun sani ba, mutane da dama sai sun je kada kur’ia za’ace musu wannan kuri’ar bata wannan akwati bace bayan sun yi shekara da shekaru suna zabe a wannan akwati, wasu an tura musu sako na canjin da aka samu wasu kuma an tura bai shigo ba wasu kuma basu iya samun damar karantawa ba, wannan dalilin yasa jama’a da dama ba suyi zabe ba musamman a Jihar Kano domin kuwa wasu daga inda tsohon akwatinsu yake zuwa inda sabon yake doguwar tafiya ce da tasa mutane da dama suka hakura da wannan zaben, sannan kuma a wannan zaben an samu karancin fitowa zabe fiye da zaben daya huce a baya hakan yanada alaka da mutanen suke ganin zabe a Nigeria bashida wani muhimmanci saboda dalilai guda 2, na daya (1) ta’addancin da wasu masu son  zuciya suke sawa ayi a lokacin zabe inda jama’a suke ganin zama lafiya yafi zama dan sarki kara su zauna a gida basu fita ba bare aji musu ciwo a banza. Na (2) yawan magudin zaben da ake samu wasu ma suna cewa tun kafin zaben ma ansan wanda za’a bawa suke ganin babu bukatar su fita su bata lokacinsu kara a bawa duk wanda za’a bawa. A bangaren ma’aikatan zabe kuma an gaza biyansu hakkinsu na training da kuma allowance na cin abinci wanda da yawa sai ranar zabe da safe sannan aka basu wannan kudade wasu kuma har yau ma baa basu wannan kudade ba kuma da yawa sun yi doguwar tafiya sun kashe kudin mota daga gidajensu zuwa inda zasuyi wannan aiki, ga kuma kudinsu na zabe ma ba’a basu ba har kawo yau, gurare da yawa an samu tangardar naurar tantancewa (BVAS) yayinda wasu guraren kuma ba’a bada isassun kayan aiki ba kuma gurare da dama an samu matsala wajen basu littafin shigar da sakamakon zabe inda aka dinga bada wanda bana wannan akwati ba. Babbar matsalar da INEC ta gaza cikawa itace ta dora sakamakon zabe a internet immediately bayan gama zabe domin kuwa wasu masu amfani da BVAS din basu samu cikakken horo akan naurar da har zasu san yadda zasu dora wannan zabe wasu kuma inda suke babu network da zasuyi connecting su dora wannan sakamakon zaben, wannan matsalar tasa a wajen tattara zabe wakilin PDP Dino Malaye yake korafi akan meyasa baa dora sakamakon zabe a internet ba wanda yake ganin anyi hakan ne domin yin magudi a wannan zabe.

Babban abinda yaja hankali kuma ya bawa mutane matukar mamaki shine tasirin da kananan jam’iyu suka nuna a wannan zabe inda suka lashe zaben manyan jahohin da suke Nigeria guda 2 wato Kano da Lagos da kuma nasarorin da dan takarar Labour Party Peter Obi ya samu a manyan jahohin dake kasar nan ciki harda garin da ake ganin sunfi ko ina yawan jama’a a Nigeria Lagos, wannan nasarar ta bawa mutane mamaki kuma ya nuna kamar mutanenmu sun fara wayewa wajen ganin sun zabi chanchanta ba jam’iya ba. Sannan abun daya faru a jahohin kudu yasa masu hankali a cikin jama’ar arewacin Nigeria sun fuskanci inda aka dosa a yanzu, har akaji wani professor yana ikirarin abinda yan kudu sukayi hankali suka koyawa yan arewa domin su basa hana dan kasa yin register zabe wanda hakan ya basu dammar tara kuri’u mai yawa, inda professor din yake cewa tabbas wannnan abu daya faru yasa sun gane a zabe mai zuwa har almajirai sai sunyi musu register katin zabe kuma zasu jajirce wajen nunawa nasu soyayya domin kuwa soyayyar da inyamurai suka nunawa peter obi ce tasa ya samu nasara a guraruwa da dama ciki harda Arewacin Nigeria kamar Abuja, plateau da kuma Jahar Nasarawa. Idan mukayi duba da Jahar Kano wannan zabe ya bada mamaki matuka ganin yadda al’ummar jahar Kano suka karbi tafiyar sabuwar jam’iya wanda aka dade baaga hakan a shekaru da dama tun zamanin Abubakar Rimi. Sabuwar Jam’iyar ta lashe kusan kaso 90% na kujerun yan majalissa da suke jahar da kuma lashe Sanata 2 a cikin 3 dake jahar, zaben daya yamutsa hazo wanda har yanzu ake tattaunawa akansa shine zaben Tudun Wada da kuma Doguwa wanda ake zargin dan takarar majalissa wannan karamar hukuma yayi amfani da matasa wajen aikata ta’addanci a wajen wannan zabe domin ya samu nasara, abin ban haushi shaidun gani da ido sun tabbatar da an ganshi shi da kansa yana harbi a wajen wannan zabe kuma an tabbatar da akwai mutumin da aka harbeshi yana sallah a wannan waje bayan mutanen da aka kulle daki aka kunna musu wuta, wannan ba karamin ci baya bane a tsarin democracy kuma ya sava da dokokin kasa wajen amfani da ta’addanci a lokacin zabe da kuma ba lokacin zabe ba, al’ummar Nigeria dai sun zuba ido domin ganin hukuncin da zaa dauka akan wannan dan majalissa domin kuwa INEC ta tabbatar dashi a matsayin zababben wannan yanki, har yanzu dai ana bincike inda shi wannan dan takara yake tsare a hannun jami’an farin kaya (DSS).

A jiya daddare aka kammala karbar sakamakon zabe kuma aka tabbatar da wanda yayi nasara a wannan zabe amma fa akwai hujjoji da suke nuna yadda aka tafka magudi a wannan zabe inda akaji jam’iyar PDP da LP suna ikirarin lallai a soke wannan zabe a sake wani ko kuma su garzaya kotu. Kadan daga cikin sakamakon garuruwan da ake gani an tafka wannan magudi sun hada da Jahar Ekiti inda wakilin PDP Dino Malaye yace sakamakon da INEC ta wallafa a shafinta ba shine aka kawo gaban shugaban zabe ba, inda a gefe guda ma akaji tsohon shugaban kasar Nigeria Obasanjo ya soki wannan zabe kuma yayi umarni da lallai shugaban INEC ya soke wannan zabe gaba daya a sake wani domin bai yarda da ingancinsa ba yayinda su kuma jam’iya masu mulki sukayi masa martani da bashida darajar da zaisa a soke zabe, Kungiyar European Union (EU) ma tana cikin kungiyoyin da suka soki wannan zabe inda sukace akwai kuskure da dama da kuma rashin ingancin zaben duba da an samu satar akwati a gurare da dama kuma mutane sunyi korafi kala-kala akan zaben da dai sauransu.

Babban abinda mutane suke korafi akai shine zaben Jahar Gombe inda baturen zaben da kansa ya ayyana mutane 295,782 sune adadin wanda akayiwa register yayinda aka tantance mutane 78,487 amma bisa mamaki sai aka samu adadin valid vote 88,991 wanda aka samu Karin akalla mutane 10,000 da wani abun akan wanda aka tantance, to abin tambayar shine tayaya wannan mutane 10,000 din sukayi zabe ba’a tantancesu ba bayan a dokar wannan zabe matukar na’urar tantancewa BVAS bata tantance ka ba saidai kayi hakuri, kuma mutane suke mamakin yadda aka karanta wannan sakamakon a gaban shugaban shugaban INEC kuma ya karba ba tare da yayi korafi akan hakan ba, hakan ya bawa mutane gamsuwa akan video da suke yawo a kafefen sadarwa na an bawa yara kuri’a suna dangwalawa duk da ba’a tabbatar da wannan video daga wane gari ya fito ba, sai ma aka jiyo Jam’iyar APC suna bada umarnin a kama Dino Malaye da Dele Mammadu bisa zargin tada tarzoma a lokacin karbar zabe a Abuja. A safiyar yau kuma aka tashi da zanga-zanga a garin Abuja inda suke zargin Shugaba Buhari da kuma shugaban INEC bisa rashin cika alkawarin da suka dauka na gabatar da sahihin zabe, har suke ikirarin lallai shugaban INEC ya ajiye aikinsa.A karshe dai an kammala karbar zaben Jahohi 35 harda Abuja inda Dan takarar APC Bola Tinubu ya lashe wannan zabe da kuri’u 8,794,726. Sai Dan takarar PDP Atiku Abubakar ya samu kuri’u 6,984,520. Sai dan Takarar Labour Party Peter Obi ya samu kuri’u 6,101,533. Sai dan Takarar NNPC Rabiu Kwankwaso ya samu Kuri’u 1,496,687. Bola Tinubu ya lashe zabe a jahohi 12, Atiku Abubakar ya lashe jahohi 12, Peter Obi ya lashe Jahohi 11, Rabiu Kwankwaso ya lashe Jaha 1, yakama jahohi 36. Wasu daga cikin Mutanen Jami’iyar PDP suna zargin Rabiu Kwankwaso da hanasu lashe zabe wanda koda ace an hada kuri’un Rabiu Kwankwaso a bawa Atiku kuri’un bazasu kai na Bola Tinubu ba.

Nigeria: Notes on the Ekiti and Osun Gubernatorial Elections

Two southwestern Nigerian states, Ekiti and Osun, hold gubernatorial elections at a critical point in the political calendar, namely some 6-9 months before presidential, legislative, and (most – 30 of 36) gubernatorial elections. Ekiti and Osun are not the only states to hold off-cycle gubernatorial elections, as various court cases, re-run elections, impeachments, and other factors have moved six states’ gubernatorial elections from the main, four-year political cycle to their own, four-year cycles. Ekiti and Osun have become particularly important since 2014 because of the political shift that occurred in Nigeria from approximately 2013-2015 after the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), whose presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari won election in 2015 (after running three times previously under other parties’ banners) and then won re-election in 2019. The APC is in crude terms a coalition between the north and the southwest. Political parties’ performance – i.e., the performance of the APC and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP, which held the presidency 1999-2015 and is now Nigeria’s main opposition party) – in the Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial elections can give some indication of where the southwest might go in the presidential elections the following year.

Despite all that, I wouldn’t call Ekiti and Osun “bellwether” states – I’m not sure such a thing exists in Nigeria. The gubernatorial results do tend to roughly presage the presidential results in those particular states, though, whether because the gubernatorial results reflect the voters’ feelings about the parties overall, or because incumbents can assist in tipping elections to make sure their party’s presidential candidate wins.

In 2014, an APC incumbent lost Ekiti while another APC incumbent held Osun. Buhari went on to lose Ekiti and win Osun in the 2015 presidential elections.

In 2018, an APC challenger (and former governor) took Ekiti back from the PDP, although he won by fewer than 20,000 votes out of over 400,000 cast. Meanwhile, the APC held Osun, but after a tumultuous and hotly contested process that saw a re-run election after the initial outcome, a PDP victory, was tossed out. The following year, Buhari won both Ekiti and Osun, although his margin in Osun was very small, roughly 10,000 votes.

In 2022, the Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial elections both concluded recently – Ekiti on June 18 and Osun on July 16. In Ekiti, the APC candidate won ( Abiodun Oyebanji, who now succeeds term-limited APC Governor Kayode Fayemi) with 53% of the vote as the PDP and another party, the Social Democratic Party, split the rest of the vote – the Social Democrats actually placed second. In Osun, the 2022 election was a rematch of the 2018 election, but with a different outcome – this time, the PDP’s Ademola Adeleke defeated incumbent APC Governor Gboyega Oyetola.

The Ekiti and Osun elections also offer, each cycle, some idea of how Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is performing. You can read a laudatory take on INEC’s performance in Ekiti here. The author notes, “For the first time in the history of elections in Nigeria, INEC  transmitted results electronically, and the Ekiti election was the first to be conducted after President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Electoral Act 2022 into law.” The same author has written a separate analysis of the Osun election and the APC’s loss, attributing it to tensions between Oyetola and his predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola, as well as to “the pain of the 2018 Osun governorship election – many still believe Adeleke was robbed of his mandate during the last election in the state.”

In any case, if the pattern from 2014-2015 and 2018-2019 holds, the APC and its presidential candidate, the veteran southwestern politician Bola Tinubu, could expect to win Ekiti but not Osun. More broadly, the APC does not have to sweep the southwest to win the entire election, but it does have win big there and in the north, in my view, to win its third presidential election in a row. The rivalry between Oyetola and Aregbesola is just one small example of how many personalities, interests, and decisions Tinubu will have to juggle in the coming months.

Nigeria: Readings on the Upcoming All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Primary, May 29-30

Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), will hold its presidential primary on May 29-30. The APC candidate can be considered the frontrunner, at least at this early date, for the open 2023 presidential election (current President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited). Watch out, reader – there’s a lot of speculation out there in the press! But here is some interesting commentary:

Vanguard, May 22: “Seven days to the presidential primary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), there is palpable anxiety over the speculation that [former Lagos State Governor and southwestern powerbroker] Asiwaju Bola Tinubu may dump the ruling party at the federal level if the exercise, scheduled for May 29 and 30, is manipulated against him. Tinubu is one of the front runners in the contest for the APC presidential ticket ahead of the 2023 general elections.”

Punch, May 22: “All the presidential aspirants in the All Progressives Congress, except a former  Lagos State governor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, are open to the idea of the candidate of the party emerging through consensus, Sunday PUNCH can confirm. The consensus method will entail the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), anointing one of the aspirants, while the others simply step down for him as was done during the March 26 national convention of the APC, which produced Senator Abdullahi Adamu as the chairman.”

Daily Trust, May 23: “Daily Trust learnt that political leaders within the ruling APC in South West are mounting pressure on presidential aspirants from the zone to agree on a consensus candidate ahead of the primary so as to approach the convention venue from the position of strength…Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, APC national leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; former Speaker of House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole; Chairman of Nigerian Governors’ Forum and Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi as well as former Ogun State Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun; the Senator representing Ondo North Senatorial District, Robert Ajayi Boroffice and Serving Overseer of the Citadel Global Community Church, Nigeria, Pastor Tunde Bakare are the presidential aspirants from the South West.”

Vanguard, May 22: “Senate President and frontline presidential aspirant under the All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr Ahmad Lawan has refuted reports of him withdrawing from the presidential race to pursue another term in the senate.”

The Guardian, May 22: “In the APC, the deal initially seems to have been concluded that the presidential ticket of the ruling party will go to the South in line with an old, unwritten agreement put together when the party was formed in 2014 [sic, it was 2013]. This was why until about a week ago, all the aspirants in APC except Kogi Governor, Yahaya Bello, were southerners. It is also the reason why all the big wigs in the South in all the three geo-political zones are in the race. However, the calculation changed when the APC failed in its determination to coerce or compel the opposition PDP to also follow suit. When it became apparent that PDP will not yield to the game of presenting an all-southern candidates election, the APC suddenly changed gear. And guess who was first used to send the clear signal that APC may also join the PDP in presenting a northerner as its candidate? The incumbent Senate President, Dr. Ahmed Lawan.”

Premium Times, May 22: “Last week, statutory delegates in Kaduna State pledged their votes to the former governor of Lagos State, Mr Tinubu. Their governor, Nasir Elrufai, had asked the delegates who they would give their votes at the convention, and in a unanimous voice, they pledged to give them all to Mr Tinubu, who is also the national leader of the party. However, in the usual twist that has characterised the race, 48 hours after, Mr El-Rufai guided the same delegates to pledge their support to the former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi.”

BBC Pidgin has a useful breakdown (towards the end) of the delegates by region.

Nigeria: In Edo State, an Off-Cycle PDP Victory Raises Questions for the APC

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) held the presidency and many governorships in Nigeria from 1999, when the country returned to civilian rule under the Fourth Republic, and 2015, when current President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated a PDP incumbent. Since 2015, the PDP has been Nigeria’s main opposition party, registering its strongest performances (both at the presidential and gubernatorial levels) in what Nigerians call the South East and South South geopolitical zones. When Buhari was re-elected in 2019, the PDP swept those zones and took two states each in the North Central and North East zones. With a few exceptions, the 2019 election map was essentially a diagonal line drawn across the country, with the APC taking almost everything north and west of that line and the PDP taking everything south and east of the line (see the map at the link).

Nigeria’s main election cycle for federal and state elections occurs every four years, but some gubernatorial elections have moved to different four-year cycles because of the cumulative impacts of past court decisions and re-run elections. One such state is Edo, at the western edge of the South South geopolitical zone – right next to the South West zone, a core APC stronghold. Edo held its gubernatorial election on September 19.

As with many other Nigerian elections and especially gubernatorial elections, party proved fluid and complex, and intra-party power struggles mattered, at some moments, more than inter-party struggles. Thus in Edo you have the incumbent governor, Godwin Obaseki, winning re-election, but as the candidate of a different party than the one he came to power with. In other words, Obaseki won in 2020 as the PDP’s candidate after originally winning in 2016 as the APC’s candidate. His margin of victory was decisive – nearly 80,000 votes out of roughly 530,000 votes cast for him and his APC rival.

The background to this outcome involves intra-APC power struggles at the level of both Edo State and Nigeria as a whole. Key players include the APC power broker, ex-Lagos State Governor, and likely 2023 presidential aspirant Bola Tinubu, as well as ex-Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole (in office 2008-2016). To summarize what I wrote here, the initial “godfather-godson” relationship between Oshiomhole and Obaseki, his chosen successor, deteriorated completely by 2019 – and that falling-out intersected with national-level infighting within the APC, resulting in Oshiomhole eventually being stripped of his National Chairmanship in a series of maneuvers beginning in March 2020. Meanwhile, Obaseki was blocked from the APC primary in Edo State, allegedly due to Oshiomhole’s influence, and so Obaseki defected to the PDP. As all this was going on, many Nigerian observers felt that, as I summarized back in July, “The situation in Edo is now becoming a test of Tinubu’s influence as well, and a loss for the APC in September would be seen by many as damaging Tinubu personally.”

So now we will see what the damage is, especially to his standing within the APC and to his 2023 prospects. This Day has a quick (and perhaps slightly PDP-leaning) tour of “winners and losers” from the election. The paper places Tinubu firmly in the losers’ camp for what the paper says is many Edo voters’ resentment at Tinubu’s perceived political overreach in their state. Interestingly, though, the paper places President Buhari among the winners:

The successful conclusion of the 2020 Edo governorship election is a big plus for President Muhammadu Buhari, both locally and internationally. For ensuring that a level playing field was provided for the conduct of the election, even his ardent critics are persuaded to acknowledge this gracious deed. To his credit, the much feared deployment of an amorphous ‘federal might’ by the main opposition party was absent.

Questions for Tinubu, then, are (1) whether this loss is part of a pattern of political mismanagement (even before the election, some observers were connecting the APC’s problems in Edo to the party’s gubernatorial losses in 2019 and to earlier defections of sitting governors from the APC to the PDP), or whether this is just part of the ebb and flow of Nigerian politics, where party-switching is common if not routine; (2) whether Tinubu faces limits to his reception as a national, rather than merely southwestern, political leader; and (3) how his relationship with the president evolves from here, and how much that matters for 2023. On the other hand, This Day also muses about whether the PDP victory in Edo is simply a return to a norm of PDP control there and across the South South zone – so perhaps there are limits to what one should extrapolate from a single election.

Muhammadu Buhari’s Comments on Third Terms Underline ECOWAS’ Credibility Gap on Democracy

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari was in Niamey, Niger on September 7 for an ordinary summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). He made headlines for the following comment:

President Buhari asks West African leaders to stop elongating their tenure in office, saying it is becoming a source of trouble. #PMBinNiger pic.twitter.com/60UPp6fUaL

— Garba Shehu (@GarShehu) September 7, 2020

More of his remarks quoted here:

As leaders of our individual Member-States of ECOWAS, we need to adhere to the constitutional provisions of our countries, particularly on term limits. This is one area that generates crisis and political tension in our sub-region.

Related to this call for restraint is the need to guarantee free, fair and credible elections. This must be the bedrock for democracy to be sustained in our sub-region, just as the need for adherence to the rule of law.

The obvious though unnamed targets of these remarks are Guinea’s Alpha Condé and Cote d’Ivoire’s Alassane Ouattara, both of whom are seeking third terms in elections that fall, respectively, on October 18 and October 31 of this year. One could also, although I’m not sure that this was Buhari’s intention, read his remarks as applying to other leaders in the region who have not sought third terms but who made the electoral playing fields very uneven when running for re-election – I am thinking of Senegal’s Macky Sall and Niger’s Mahamadou Issoufou, both of whom jailed their main opponents while running for (and winning) second terms. And then there is perhaps the most egregious anti-democratic case in the whole region – Togo’s Faure Gnassingbé, who won a fourth term this past February and whose family has been in power since 1967.

Buhari has many faults, but I think he has credibility on this issue of third terms – I do not expect him to seek a third one when his time is up in 2023, and he has repeatedly pledged not to do so. You never know, of course.

The context for Buhari’s remarks about third terms was the ongoing ECOWAS response to the August 18 coup in Mali, which removed second-termer Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. ECOWAS leaders’ domestic efforts to bend and extend rules have implicitly weakened their credibility in negotiating with different actors in Mali – first the anti-Keïta protesters who threw Bamako’s politics into turmoil from June until the eve of the coup, and then more recently with the junta (the National Committee for the Salvation of the People, French acronym CNSP).

Newsworthy though Buhari’s remarks are, I don’t see pressure from him or others resulting in a course change for Condé or Ouattara. Once presidents start down the third term route they are usually (although not always, as the cases of Nigeria’s Olusegun Obasanjo and Mauritania*’s Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz exemplify) determined to go through with it.

I should probably do a separate post on the ECOWAS summit’s conclusions regarding Mali, but the final communiqué is here (French). The key paragraph on Mali is paragraph 16, page 6, where ECOWAS calls for a 12-month transition back to an elected president, and demands that the CNSP designate an interim president and prime minister, both of them civilians, by September 15. I wouldn’t hold my breath.

*Not an ECOWAS member currently.

Boko Haram/ISWAP Roundup for August 6, 2020

Previous roundup here.

On August 4, after meeting with his top security personnel, President Muhammadu Buhari ordered what his National Security Advisor Babagana Monguno has referred to as “an immediate re-engineering of the entire security apparatus” (it is not clear to me whether this framing represents Monguno directly quoting, or just paraphrasing, Buhari). It is not immediately clear, however, what this might actually mean (Hausa).

Snapshots of some of the latest violence:

Today ISWAP claimed 2 attacks. The statements say:
1. They repelled an attack in Baga yesterday – several Nigerian soldiers killed and wounded.
2. Another IED attack targeting Chadian troops (a worrying sign) on Litri-Kaiga road – several killed and wounded, a vehicle destroyed. pic.twitter.com/Bmb2Pl4aP1

— Tomasz Rolbiecki (@TomaszRolbiecki) August 5, 2020

Issue 245 of the Islamic State’s Al-Naba’ (July 30, p. 10) details ISWAP’s attacks in Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon as part of the Islamic State’s “Attrition Campaign (Ghazwat al-Istinzaf.” Available here for registered users of the website Jihadology.

On August 2, presumed Boko Haram fighters killed at least 16 people in an attack on an IDP camp at Nguetchewe (or Guetchewe), Cameroon, near the Nigerian border. Here is a French-language video report (saying 18 people killed):

For context, here is UNHCR:

This attack follows a significant rise in violent incidents in Cameroon’s Far-North Region in July, including looting and kidnapping by Boko Haram and other armed groups active in the region. The Far North region, tucked between Nigeria’s Borno and Adamawa states and Lake Chad, currently hosts 321,886 IDPs and 115,000 Nigerian refugees.

The incident is also a sad reminder of the intensity and brutality of the violence in the wider  the Lake Chad Basin region that has forced more than three million people to flee: 2,7m are internally displaced in Northeast Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, while 292,682 Nigerian refugees fled into neighbouring countries.

Cameroon reports that since January this year, it has recorded 87 Boko Haram attacks on its northern border with Nigeria. Twenty-two of them were in the northern district of Mozogo alone.

More context, from FEWS Net, on the economic impact of Boko Haram attacks in Cameroon’s Far North:

Markets in the Far North region play an important role in regional trade with neighboring Chad and Northeast Nigeria. The Douala – Maroua – Kousseri corridor that extends to Chad includes the flow of imported commodities. The Maiduguri (Nigeria) – Maroua and Maiduguri – Kousseri corridor, both continuing to Chad, includes the flow of processed goods and also the re-export of key staples such as sorghum and rice back into Cameroon during the lean season and imported staples from surplus producing areas in Nigeria during harvest and postharvest periods. However, as result of frequent Boko Haram attacks, these trade corridors are often closed by the government re-orientating trade flow more towards southern destinations precisely Yaounde, Douala, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and the Central Africa Republic (CAR).

Via Nigeria’s The Guardian, new possible indications of Boko Haram activity in Niger State, north central Nigeria:

The Abubakar Shekau-led faction of Boko Haram has released a video showing members claiming to be from Niger State.

A footage seen by The Guardian Nigeria shows about 100 persons praying Eid in the heart of a bush before showing three fighters sending Eid greetings in Hausa, English and Fulfulde.

Malik Samuel of the Institute for Security Studies writes, in a short article, that “Boko Haram is extending its reach from north-east Nigeria into the country’s north-west. It is taking advantage of old and new local conflicts and insecurities to further embed itself in the area through violent extremism.” This is now a widespread narrative among journalists and analysts. I’m reserving judgment until I see more evidence.

In another story, on August 5, This Day reports, the Borno State Police Command announced the arrests of 45 alleged criminals, including one alleged Boko Haram logistics supplier. According to the police, the individual had 200,000 Naira in cash, which might sound like a lot but it’s a little over $500. I’d be surprised if this individual was a major player.

Meanwhile, there is continued fallout from the July 29 attack on Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum’s convoy in Baga. My post on the incident, and the ensuing battle to control the media narrative, is here. Ambassador John Campbell has also blogged about the episode here. The Nigeria Governors Forum, among others, have expressed support for Zulum.

Zulum’s camp has voiced skepticism about the military’s narrative regarding the Baga incident. Responding to that, the Defence Headquarters Media Operations has once again stated that

From the analysis, [the attack] was purely that of the enemies, Boko Haram, in that area. From the tactics, and from the search conducted, it was the insurgents. So, our fears were allayed within 48 hours. It is not anything sabotage from the tactical, operational and strategic level, that is if you want to rate it from rank down to the person on the frontline.

Finally, on another note, Ewan Davies writes about the Urban Africa Labelling (URBAL) tool and how it can be used to analyze violence:

The URBAL tool can also be used to study how the patterns of attacks of specific extremist groups such as Al Shabaab in the Horn of Africa and Boko Haram in West Africa have changed over time (Figure 1). For both groups, the percentage of events and fatalities occurring in urban areas have dramatically decreased over the years despite the rapid population growth of cities in Somalia and northern Nigeria. While Al Shabaab and Boko Haram were predominantly active in cities until the early 2010s, both groups have reorganized into rural guerrilla forces following the counter-offensive of the African Union Mission (AMISOM) in Somalia and the Nigeria-led Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) around Lake Chad.

Feel free to share any relevant links in the comments.

Nigeria: Competing Narratives Circulate in the Aftermath of Attack on Borno Governor Zulum’s Convoy

On July 29, the convoy of Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum was attacked in the town of Baga (map), possibly by Boko Haram. The incident has generated competing narratives and speaks to the wider “information war” that is a core part of the crisis – even Boko Haram’s own leader Abubakar Shekau has referred to the centrality of the “information war (yakin bayani).”

In the aftermath of the attack, some of the main contention is between the governor and the Army. Various videos of the attack (see here) have circulated, including one clip from the vantage point of a driver in the convoy, and one short clip of Zulum arguing with a Nigerian Army officer. Zulum has also been quoted as saying to the Army officer:

You have been here for over one year now, there are 1,181 soldiers here; if you cannot take over Baga which is less than 5 km from your base, then we should forget about Baga. I will inform the Chief of Army Staff to redeploy the men to other places that they can be useful. You people said there’s no Boko Haram here, then who attacked us?

Some of Zulum’s staff have also been blunt in their criticism of the military:

Arrived the city of Maiduguri very safely with my Boss @ProfZulum the @GovBorno. That story of attack was out of proportion. What really transpired was the exhibition of unprofrssionalism by the soldiers of #MNJTF in Baga that tried to escort us into Baga Town. All is well

— Barr. M. A. Busuguma (@babanteema) July 30, 2020

MNJTF here refers to the Multi-National Joint Task Force, which includes the militaries of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon with some participation by Benin as well. Note too that part of the information war concerns not just who perpetrated the attack, but also how serious it was or wasn’t.

In remarks to the press the day after the attack (see also here), Zulum appeared to imply that there were no actual Boko Haram fighters involved in the attack, and that there was “serious shooting by the Nigerian armed forces.” These remarks are tricky to parse. The prominent Nigerian analyst Bulama Bukarti has implied that the military staged the attack (or feigned being under attack?):

Following my tweet on the attack on Gov. Zulum. A v senior public servant wrote to me that it wasn’t BH but “a resistance & delay tactic by the Military to stop the Gov. from accessing Baga, the Center for the Military High Command’s illegal Multi-Million Naira Fishing Business.”

— Bulama Bukarti (@bulamabukarti) August 2, 2020

I’m not convinced. It seems to me that if the Army wanted to block Zulum from Baga, it could have done so without staging a kind of theatrical performance. But anything is possible.

Zulum also stressed, in that press interview, the economic importance of Baga. He suggested that eventually it may be necessary for the military to leave Baga, if they cannot secure the town, and for the local population “to take destiny into their own hands.”

In additional remarks that were, I believe, delivered over the weekend, Zulum noted that the situation in Borno since 2015 has been different, and in his view better, than in the period 2011-2015, but he made headlines (even more so than for the other interview) for referencing “sabotage within the system” as a (the?) reason why the insurgency persists.

More coverage of Zulum’s remarks can be found here.

Amid the competing narratives, part of what’s at stake is that the governor’s ability to move around the state is, both practically and symbolically, inseparable from his ability to demonstrate control – both in the face of the jihadist insurgency and vis-a-vis the military. Threats to his free movement are also threats to his political capital.

In the aftermath of the attack (as beforehand), Zulum has emphasized his direct physical outreach to Borno’s most vulnerable populations. I don’t think such gestures are cynical or empty, but I also think they have a political dimension:

Despite Baga attack, @ProfZulum delivers food aide to 80,000 IDPs in Monguno

… Military commander praises Zulum’s resilience https://t.co/5uk7DRMDzQ pic.twitter.com/1um89ODdTl

— Governor Borno (@GovBorno) July 31, 2020

Meanwhile, the leadership of the Nigerian Army has framed the attack as a Boko Haram attack but also as “an isolated and most unfortunate incident that occurred in a territory where normalcy has since been restored with socio-economic activities picking up.” We see a hint of a gap between the statements of the officer who appears in the video I linked to above, who can be heard saying “there is no Boko Haram inside the town,” and the official Army statement, another portion of which reads, “The good people of Baga town and indeed the entire Borno State are enjoined to continue to provide credible information that will assist the security agencies to successfully combat terrorism as well as apprehend and flush out the perpetrators of the attack.” The Army is keen to present itself as being in control, but there is the faintest acknowledgment here that they do not have the human intelligence they need. The reasons for that are manifold, but one obvious reason is the Army’s own past history in Baga. The statement has also promised an investigation into the incident.

The Army is also keen to control the narrative about the trajectory of the conflict – in other words, the Army would like audiences, local, national, and international, to believe that the trajectory is positive. This convoy attack, however, has prominent voices in Borno and beyond saying that the situation is deteriorating – the State’s foremost religious leader, the Shehu of Borno, said, “If a convoy of such highly placed person in the State will be attacked, I repeat, nobody is safe. The matter is getting worse, I urge everyone to raise up our hands to seek Allah’s intervention.” This is precisely how the Army does not want people to feel.

There are multiple audiences in play. One is President Muhammadu Buhari – Zulum explicitly said, in his remarks about sabotage, that this is something he is conveying to the president. The Army, obviously, also wants Buhari to be convinced that they are making progress. Another key audience is ordinary people (and voters) in Borno. And there is an international audience too, obviously.

Who controls what now, in Borno? The picture is constantly shifting, but humanitarian access maps give one perspective – here is one June 2020 map of educational activities in Borno, for example. For context, Baga is located in Kukawa Local Government Area (LGA), northeastern Borno State. The map does not classify Kukawa as inaccessible but it does mark two nearby LGAs, Abadam and Marte, as red zones. Adjacent Monguno LGA is also very dangerous. Contrary to the military’s claims, Baga is still very much part of the conflict zone.

Finally, for further context, this is not the first time a Borno governor’s convoy has been attacked – Zulum’s predecessor, Kashim Shettima, was attacked on the road between the state capital Maiduguri and the northeastern town of Gamboru in February 2019.

Nigeria: Controversy at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission

Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was created in 2003, under former President Olusegun Obasanjo, as an anti-corruption law enforcement body. Corruption, as I have heard many Nigerians say, is one of Nigeria’s core challenges – as is the case in many countries, including mine.

Current President Muhammadu Buhari won his first term in 2015 on a platform that foregrounded anti-corruption, drawing on Buhari’s image (right or wrong) with many Nigerians as an austere and incorruptible personality. Buhari was re-elected in 2019, and his administration has prioritized anti-corruption and asset recovery efforts (notably the money stolen and held abroad by military dictator Sani Abacha, who died in 1998) – yet many Nigerians and even many of Buhari’s own supporters and former supporters feel that he has not lived up to expectations on anti-corruption. The EFCC is part of that story.

The EFCC has had controversies in the past, but several new ones have occurred in the past few weeks. On July 7, the Commission’s Acting Chairman Ibrahim Magu was suspended, and was detained for ten days in connection with a fraud investigation. A number of other senior EFCC officials and investigators have also been suspended and sacked. The presidency’s official statement on Magu’s firing is here, but it (deliberately, I strongly suspect) does not go into detail about the content of the allegations against the suspended chairman. According to some reports, the case against Magu and the others concerns alleged “re-looting of previously stolen funds.” There is a lot of potential irony here, of course.

The EFCC has had only four heads since its creation, with the “pioneer chairman,” Nuhu Ribadu, often seen as the most effective. Michael Dada reviews the history here – one of recurring battles between EFCC chairs, attorneys general, and presidents. An excerpt:

Critics alleged that EFCC’s anti-corruption war under [second Chairperson Farida] Waziri from 2008 to 2011 grew timid and lethargic in comparison with Ribadu’s tenure.

Even though she was able to score one of the commission’s landmark prosecution that led to the former national deputy chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Bode George serving a two-and-a-half year sentence, Waziri, like Ribadu,  also fell out with the Attorney-General, Mohammed Bello Adoke over EFCC’s prosecution of cases.

[…]

[The third Chairman Ibrahim] Lamorde’s leadership of EFCC left a great deal to be desired. Unlike his predecessors, EFCC recorded no major conviction under Lamorde.

[…]

He was thereafter, investigated over allegation of money diversion. On November 9, 2015, President Buhari sacked Ibrahim Lamorde and appointed Ibrahim Magu as the acting chairman of the EFCC.

All of this, as Dada emphasizes, has damaged the EFCC’s image – for critics, it is not merely toothless, but also politicized and internally corrupt.

The Financial Times surveys the key reactions to Magu’s firing, with Magu’s lawyer decrying the charges against his client as politically motivated, and with some civil society groups coming to Magu’s defense. Such groups argue that Magu’s firing undoes crucial progress, and that he has been more aggressive than his predecessors in terms of going after major targets.

Meanwhile, Magu has been replaced by Mohammed Umar, who was Director of Operations. He is apparently not a target of the investigation against Magu and others.

Umar’s appointment has, in the context of the scrutiny given to senior appointees’ geographic origins, raised a few eyebrows, especially among southerners. The southern politician Sunny Onuesoke publicly complained that all of the EFCC chairs have so far been northerners:

In a statement, he said: “Is there any law that says EFCC chairmen can only come from the North? Magu goes and is replaced with another northerner, Mohammed Umar.

“There have now been five chairmen. Each has been a northerner. What‘s happening? Are there no credible southerners?”

With that said, many Nigerians do not view the struggle over the EFCC in geographic terms – some of the most ardent public defenses of Magu have come from voices in the south, for example this column by a Bayelsa State politician.

A lot is at stake in Magu’s firing, then, and what one makes of it. Is the presidency cleaning house and expelling someone who perverted the core mission of his own agency? Or are the presidency and the attorney general’s office settling scores in a fashion that suggests that EFCC will always be hamstrung by politics and interagency rivalries? A lot of Buhari’s second term is still left, but it already appears clear that his legacy on anti-corruption will be fairly mixed.

On the Turmoil in Nigeria’s Ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)

On September 19, Edo State in Nigeria’s “South South” geopolitical zone will hold gubernatorial elections. The default political calendar in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic is that national and state elections take place every four years starting from the Fourth Republic’s establishment in 1999, meaning that the next national and state elections are scheduled for 2023 – but a number of states’ gubernatorial cycles have moved to different calendars over the years due to court cases, re-run elections, impeachments, and other circumstances. Edo State is one of those; a 2008 court decision moved the calendar to its present cycle. This year’s gubernatorial contest in Edo has widened into and/or crystallized a fight over who will control Nigeria’s national ruling party, the All Progressives Congress or APC.

A key figure in this fight is Adams Oshiomhole. After a career in the labor movement, Oshiomhole entered politics, ran for governor in Edo in 2007, and won a 2008 court case contesting and overturning the results of the election. He served two four-year terms from 2008 to 2016. In June 2018, Oshiomhole became national chairman of the APC; he was suspended from that role in March 2020 for reasons stemming both from hyper-local politics in Edo and from the overall battle to control the party.

Two pieces of context are crucial before we go further:

1. Term limits (two four-year terms for both presidents and governors) help to incentivize what is often called “godfatherism” in Nigeria, meaning a kind of clientalist politics where the “godfather” seeks to control key offices and decisions in one or more states. Term limits are not the only ingredient in godfatherism, but many ex-governors attempt to position themselves as godfathers after their terms end. Short of the presidency itself, there are few or perhaps no positions as important in Nigeria as being a governor – senators don’t typically have power equivalent to the power of governors, for example. So when governors leave office, they often hand pick a successor and attempt to dominate the office through a proxy. This almost never works for long, because inevitably the successor will butt heads with the predecessor. The falling outs can then have major political repercussions.
2. The APC is a political coalition of several pre-existing parties; it coalesced in 2013, in the lead-up to the 2015 elections, when its candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, scored the first successful presidential election upset in Nigeria’s history. The APC is ostensibly a center-left party but a lot of what has held it together so far is its success, rather than ideology, demography, or some other factor. In crude terms, the APC is an alliance between powerful northern politicians, especially in the north west and north east geopolitical zones, and powerful southwestern politicians; the east and “south south” have become mostly strongholds of the former ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party or PDP, which is now Nigeria’s main opposition party. The picture in the sixth and final geopolitical zone, the North Central, is a bit more mixed.

Turning back to Edo, when Oshiomhole left office in 2016, he appears to have put himself strongly into the godfather role, at least according to his opponents. Oshiomhole was succeeded as governor by Godwin Obaseki, who came out of the financial sector and served in several key economic posts in Oshiomhole’s two administrations. Most accounts (example) suggest that Oshiomhole hand-picked Obaseki to succeed him – Obaseki’s team recently stated that in 2016, Oshiomhole not only picked Obaseki, he “compiled the list of those to be appointed commissioners in Edo in his sitting room in 2016. Asides [sic] from  picking the governor, he also picked his deputy and the [Secretary to the State Government].”

Then came the inevitable falling out. Tension, according to this report, surfaced quickly, having to do with control of personnel appointments and with the power and access given – or denied – to Oshiomhole’s people in Obaseki’s administration. Throughout the 2016-2020 period, Oshiomhole had a powerful weapon, and he eventually wielded it: blocking Obaseki’s re-election, at least on the APC ticket. On June 12, an APC screening committee in Edo disqualified Obaseki from participating in the gubernatorial primary; the official reason was alleged questions about Obaseki’s academic credentials, but most observers view Oshiomhole’s influence as the real deciding factor. Events then moved rapidly: the APC selected Osagie Ize-Iyamu as its candidate, and Obaseki defected to the PDP and became the PDP candidate. Here is a fun fact that will help you understand something about Nigerian politics if you are not familiar with it: in 2016, Obaseki and Ize-Iyamu also competed for the Edo governorship, but at that time Obaseki was the APC candidate and Ize-Iyamu was the PDP candidate.

Meanwhile, Obaseki had political weapons to use against Oshiomhole. In November 2019, Oshiomhole’s home ward in Etsako West Local Government Area of Edo passed a vote of no confidence in him. The state party then suspended him. Those moves provided the legal underpinning for eventually suspending Oshiomhole as National Chairman of the APC on the grounds that he is no longer a member in good standing of the party itself.

Now we need to bring another character into the story: Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos State (1999-2007) and arguably the most successful “godfather” of the Fourth Republic – someone who has not only picked several successors in his home state and kept a remarkable influence over politics there, but whose influence extends throughout the southwest and to a real extent nationwide. Tinubu was perhaps the key architect of the APC, more influential in its coalescing even than Buhari himself. Tinubu also selected Buhari’s Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, and Tinubu is likely a 2023 presidential aspirant (Buhari will be term limited).

The Edo fight has implicated Tinubu in numerous ways. The Nigerian press and the Obaseki camp have depicted Tinubu as a strong backer of Oshiomhole both within the national party and within the Oshiomhole-Obaseki power struggle. Tinubu and Oshiomhole have come in for strong criticism. Here is Vanguard:

Obaseki’s defection to the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP followed earlier defections by Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue, (July 2018); Abdulfatah Ahmed, of Kwara July 2018; and Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, Sokoto, August 2018.

 

The defections coming on the heel of the loss of Zamfara, Bauchi and Adamawa States in the 2019 General Election have inevitably brought to fore the prospects of the party in the immediate future.

The situation in Edo is now becoming a test of Tinubu’s influence as well, and a loss for the APC in September would be seen by many as damaging Tinubu personally.

A struggle has also occurred to determine who would become Acting National Chairman amid Oshiomhole’s suspension. Here, many observers feel that Tinubu and Buhari landed on opposite sides of the question, with Tinubu, via the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party, seeming to support first Abiola Ajimobi (who died suddenly in late June) and then Prince Hilliard Etta for the position, while Buhari ultimately backed Victor Giadom – and dissolved the NWC. Tinubu and Oshiomhole have both publicly accepted (Pidgin) that decision, with Oshiomhole saying he is not going to pursue reinstatement as National Chairman. Buhari and Tinubu have worked to present a united front, but the president’s backing of Giadom has been widely seen as a rebuke of Tinubu. Meanwhile, as one article put it, “The forces working against Mr Oshiomhole are also majorly the same group of people committed to blocking Mr Tinubu’s presidential ambition.”

What next? An in-depth analysis of the Edo race contains this very blunt passage:

Obaseki certainly has the power of incumbency to his advantage. But in Nigeria, this is greatly limited when your party is not in control of the police, military and all other security services that are usually deployed to monitor elections and provide security. The governor’s incumbency advantage may be effectively neutralised by the federal might. As a matter of fact, Ize-Iyamu may even be the ultimate beneficiary of federal might if the lessons of history are factored in.

Off-season elections, like the ones about to hold in Edo and Ondo states, are usually an easier turf to deploy the full powers of the federal government in trying to sway outcomes.

Win or lose in Edo, Tinubu isn’t going anywhere, but obviously a win there would allow him to avoid the accusation that his ally (Oshiomhole) bungled everything.

At the level of the party as a whole, though, can the APC hold together? Political scientists like Carl LeVan, and Olly Owen and Zainab Usman, have written about the political settlements that held the PDP together for 16 years as Nigeria’s ruling party, settlements that then fell apart in the lead-up to 2015. If the APC is seen as representing an agglomeration of interests rather than a cohesive party, the question is whether the party will find a candidate for 2023 who preserves enough of the political settlement to allow the party to remain majoritarian. I’ll leave you with the aptly titled analysis “Pandemonium at the Alter” by Chidi Amuta, writing in This Day. An excerpt:

Now that the Buhari transition has been fast forwarded by three years, the internal contradictions of the party in power have surfaced to haunt the party as a party. Forget that governance and the common good at the national and most state levels will begin to take a back seat. The present skirmishes are merely rehearsals of the bloody wars that will be fought in the party to succeed Mr. Buhari. The factors and factions in contention counterbalance themselves and may cancel each other out at the expense of the party itself. The single most important feature of the party that will hasten its unraveling is perhaps the fact that its leading elite are persons of near equal age, resources and political gravity. The possibility that they will cancel each other out while entertaining the nation in the law courts remains the most interesting prospect in the political drama of the future of the APC.

[…]

The expectation that the rival Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would fare better is unfounded. Sixteen years of institutional existence and power incumbency has not translated into either a superiority of organization or perspective. Even now as an opposition, the PDP has remained frozen at the level of abuse and personal insult. It has hardly risen to the occasion of positing a logical ideological or policy alternative to the ruling party. Its leadership has not grown neither has its internal democracy or party technocracy. It has remains at the same level of pedestrian and mundane opportunism and indiscriminate brandishing of titles and changing postures.

 

Nigeria: Initial Impressions Regarding Buhari’s Re-Election

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has been re-elected to a second four-year term, as many observers expected. Working off of these figures for 2015 and these figures for 2019, here are a few initial points I would make:

• Buhari’s map shifted and contracted slightly even as his absolute numbers held basically constant. That is, Buhari won 21 states in 2015 and 19 in 2019, with four states moving out of his column (Adamawa, Benue, Ondo, Oyo) and two states moving into his column (Ekiti and Nasarawa). The 2019 map is essentially just a bifurcation of Nigeria with a line running from the northeast to the southwest. In terms of absolute numbers, Buhari won roughly 15.4 million votes in 2015 and roughly 15.2 million in 2019. Turnout was low, perhaps partly because of the last-minute, one-week delay.
• Buhari won largely because of massive margins in the north. In patterns that partly replicated patterns from 2015, Buhari scored huge margins in northern states such as Kano (1.07 million vote margin), Katsina (920,000 vote margin), and Borno (760,000 vote margin).
• If Buhari won by fraud, it was through elevating northern vote totals while simultaneously drawing a plausible map. Some of the northern numbers deserve real scrutiny. Why was Kano such a blowout, when many observers expected it to be competitive? How did the Buhari vote in Borno jump from 473,543 in 2015 to 836,496 in 2019? At the same time, if Buhari’s camp rigged, they either wisely refrained (or were other constrained) from any attempt to take states in the south east and south south (where Buhari won nothing, although he won enough of the vote there to avoid running afoul of the requirement that the winner obtain at least 25% in at least two-thirds of Nigeria’s states). And Buhari’s camp either decided (or was forced) to run tight races in much of the southwest and the Middle Belt, ceding some states (again, Oyo, Ondo, Benue, and one might add Edo* and Taraba) and squeaking by in others (Osun, Nasarawa, and arguably Kogi, depending on what you consider a tight margin). In other words, if they rigged, they didn’t try to take the whole cake – just enough to make sure they won decisively.
• The southwest isn’t as solid for Buhari (and Tinubu?) as I expected. In my more simplistic moments, I think of Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) as a deal between the north and the southwest, personified respectively by Buhari and former Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu. But 2015 and 2019 show that even that caricature has some truth to it, TInubu can’t simply “deliver” the southwest. There are always gaps, be it Ekiti in 2015 or Oyo and Ondo in 2019.
• The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) erred by nominating Atiku Abubakar. It sounds obvious in hindsight, but I think it bears mention: Abubakar, a former Vice President, had wide name recognition but also clear baggage, especially in terms of his previous tenure and his perceived associations (fair or unfair) with corruption. I wonder if another (younger?) candidate would have done better.

*Technically south south, but adjacent to the southwest.