Sunday Africa Blog Roundup: Sudan Elections, Moussa Dadis Camara, US-Nigeria Partnership

A few bloggers talk about the Sudan elections:

• Roving Bandit points us to Pete Muller‘s work on Mary Boyoi’s candidacy for an assembly seat in Southern Sudan.
• Hoda Abdel-Hamid travels with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir on his re-election campaign.
• Reuters discusses the complexities of the SPLM’s boycott.
• Rob Crilly talks about the politics of the ICC ruling against President Omar al-Bashir.
• Hafiz Mohammed explores the logistical challenges the National Election Commission will face.

Elizabeth Dickinson is not impressed with a recent New Yorker piece on Guinea’s ex-leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara:

Guinea’s troubles go far deeper, and are far more serious, than one man’s ludicrous antics explain. Dadis was probably a symptom of that more than anything — but we see him portrayed as the disease. I’m still waiting for a piece that explains the backstory behind what has happened in Guinea, because this is not it.

Inside Islam looks at Muslim-Christian relations in Senegal.

Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson talks about the Binational Commission for the US and Nigeria:

With the launch of the Binational Commission, we expect the United States and Nigeria will engage in serious, high-level talks on issues of mutual interest. The Commission’s four working groups provide the structure of this engagement. We’ll first convene the Good Governance, Transparency, and Integrity Working Group, as electoral reform and improved administration are needed to help Nigeria achieve free, fair and peaceful elections in 2011. The group will also address corruption by seeking to build Nigeria’s institutional capacity and prosecutorial efforts. The Niger Delta and Regional Security Cooperation Working Group will support Nigeria’s efforts to provide immediate and tangible development and economic opportunity to the people of the Niger Delta. The Energy and Investment Working Group will work to improve transparency, administration, and performance of the power generation and hydrocarbon sectors. And finally, the Food Security and Agriculture Working Group will work to increase reliable access to food in Nigeria and the region through improvements in agriculture and trade policy.

Zambia’s Trade Minister gives an interview about China (h/t China in Africa).

Kal fills us in on politics, antiterrorism, and relations with Mali in Mauritania.

And last but not least, Texas in Africa looks at celebrity humanitarianism in Africa.

Feel free to use this as an open thread on Africa news and/or the Sudan elections.

Quick Thoughts: Niger and Japan, JRC Pipeline Attack, Guinea Violence

Three quick items related to stories I follow here:

• Japan and the Islamic Development Bank have offered millions in aid to Niger. Given the food crisis there, Japan and the IDB will make a huge difference and save many lives. But on a political level, they are potentially undercutting American, European and ECOWAS attempts to isolate Niger politically and economically. I take no position – it’s hard to argue with giving food to hungry people – but I wonder what the long-term repercussions will be.
• I am probably naive about the Niger Delta. I hope for peace there – but even though MEND still has not officially carried out an attack since the end of the ceasefire recently, this attack on a pipeline by another group, the Joint Revolutionary Council, does not bode well for peace.
• Muslim-Christian clashes in eastern Guinea, near the home territory of recently removed leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, may be an ominous sign for that country’s stability.

Feel free to treat this post as an open thread for Africa-related news.

Chad: Hissene Habre and African Justice

I am writing this post mostly as an excuse to point readers to this beautiful op-ed by Souleymane Guengueng, who served twenty-seven months in prison during the reign of Chadian dictator Hissène Habré. The whole piece merits a read, but I found Guengueng’s discussion of how Nelson Mandela’s story inspired him to fight for justice particularly moving:

As we were cut off from the outside world, our only news was that brought by new prisoners. It was thus that Brahim, a man who would later die in jail, told us that Nelson Mandela had been freed and had walked out of prison a hero.

[…]

Nelson Mandela showed us that prison can strengthen a man. After my release, I gathered the stories of 792 other Chadian prisoners and took them to Senegal. Ten years ago this week, based in part on my evidence, a judge in Senegal charged Mr. Habré with torture and crimes against humanity. Sadly the Senegalese government has not yet brought the case to trial.

For the sake of Guengueng and others, I hope Habré will soon face trial.

N'Djamena Airport, Chad

But what if he doesn’t? I do not want to imply criticism of the Senegalese government, or of the admirable work that truth and reconciliation commissions have done in many African countries, or of any national-level movements for justice in Africa, but I feel like I hear more and more calls by African elites for continent-wide structures for addressing issues of justice and governance.

What would that look like? First, the desire to enforce accountability does not mean that African elites want outsiders to intervene: note the African Union’s continued uneasiness about the International Criminal Court. Nor does it mean that African states are all ready to surrender sovereignty to other bodies. But look at the Economic Community of West African States applying pressure to leaders like President Mamadou Tandja of Niger and Captain Moussa Dadis Camara of Niger. Look at the new AU chairman, Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika, stating an attitude of zero tolerance for coups, conflicts, and wars. Powerful forces are pushing toward greater authority for regional and continental political authorities. Continental judicial institutions already exist.

Habré’s case raises a lot of important issues. As I said, I hope the efforts of Guengueng and others will soon bring about justice. But if justice is slow in coming, the African voices who call for the continent to act as one in the judicial arena may reach a broader and broader audience.

What do you think?

Saturday Links: Qaddhafi and the AU, Omar Hammami, End of MEND Ceasefire, Bombing in Somaliland

At the AU conference starting January 31st, Libyan President Muammar Qaddhafi will seek a second term as chairman.

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Other leaders will either persuade Qaddafi to step aside or there will be a battle at the conference in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, said [an AU] official, who declined to be identified because the reelection bid hasn’t been disclosed publicly.

On Tuesday, Jean Marie Dore became prime minister of Guinea.

He vowed to steer the nation toward elections and said the military needs to be restructured for stability to take hold.

[…]

Although many take heart from the quick appointment of Dore, some are worried by unconfirmed reports [former military leader Moussa Dadis] Camara is trying to meddle from the heavily guarded villa in Burkina Faso’s capital, Ouagadougou, where he is convalescing.

A retired diplomat close to the junta told The Associated Press that Camara has been making phone calls to supporters and power brokers in Conakry in an effort to influence who will be appointed in the transitional government.

The New York Times profiles Omar Hammami, an American citizen now fighting for al Shabab. Highly recommended.

Nigeria’s Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) ends its ceasefire with the government after more than three months of relative peace.

The food crisis in Niger is part of a larger food insecurity issue in West Africa as a whole.

VOA offers a perspective on power struggles between North and South Sudan.

SPLM, the political wing of the former southern rebels, have nominated a Muslim northerner, Yasir Arman, for Sudan president.  The chair of the party and current president of Southern Sudan, Salva Kiir, opted to run to retain his southern office instead of seeking the national seat.

On Wednesday the [ruling National Congress Party] announced it would not run a candidate against Mr. Kiir for the Southern presidency, asking SPLM to reciprocate by supporting Mr. Bashir’s candidacy in the national race.  Southern officials immediately dismissed the statement and accused their northern partners of financing the campaign of a southern opposition party.

IRIN discusses recent bombings in Somaliland.

And though it’s almost a week old, Al Jazeera’s video on the Jos crisis is worth watching.

What are you reading?

Saturday Links: Yasir Arman, Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal, Moussa Dadis Camara, and Other Personalities That Shaped the Week

The SPLM announces its candidate for the Sudanese presidential elections: Yasir Arman, “a top party official in the north.” South Sudanese President Salva Kiir will run for re-election there. The Financial Times concludes that Yasir’s candidacy is “a sign [SPLM leaders] are more focused on running the south in advance of possible independence.” This quote is also worth thinking about:

On the SPLM’s choice, John Ashworth of IKV Pax Christi, a Christian campaign group, said: “They know they’ve got no chance in the north. But the idea is that , whereas a southerner would get no votes at all, a northerner would get some. So they’re at least trying to show they’re serious.”

Al Jazeera English and The Economist have more.

In Kenya, tensions around the planned deportation of Jamaican-born Muslim preacher Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal caused protests in Nairobi, which turned violent. The protests also revealed deep strains in Kenyan society regarding the presence of Somalis in the country.

After nightfall, Somalis in Nairobi ran the gauntlet of mob justice. A Reuters witness saw a Somali man being dragged from his car not far from the mosque and beaten by an angry mob.

While the leaders of the protest were Kenyan Muslims, many of the demonstrators from the mosque were Somalis and this perception was fuelling the attacks.

Residents said groups of men were also stopping cars along the two main roads heading to Eastleigh, the eastern suburb of the capital where many Somalis live.

[…]Kenya hosts some 300,000 Somali refugees in camps and there is a large community in the capital. Some Somalis who fled the war say they fear Islamists are snatching or luring their children away from their new life in Kenya.

Al Shabaab is battling to overthrow the Somali government and impose its own harsh version of sharia, Islamic law.

While there are frequent reports of al Shabaab sympathisers being seen in Eastleigh, the appearance of their flags on the capital’s streets is new.

Big news on Guinea: former military leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, recently arrived in Burkina Faso, “has agreed to remain outside the country, continuing his recovery from being shot more than one month ago while a transitional government takes charge in Guinea to organize new elections.” International pressure appears to have succeeded in preventing Camara’s return to power.

IRIN and the International Crisis Group give us updates on situations in the Central African Republic.

Christian Science Monitor looks at pirates in the Gulf of Guinea.

And finally, to end on a positive note, VOA calls the resolution of the Cameroon-Nigeria border dispute “a model for the world.”

Feel free to post interesting links in the comments section.

Guinea: Will Camara Return?

A few days ago I was surmising that international pressure on Guinea might freeze (former?) military leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara out of power and convince caretaker leader General Sekouba Konate to pursue a democratic transition back to civilian rule. But with Camara out of his Moroccan sickbed and on the move, everything is up for grabs again.

To make a joke that is in no way intended to make light of the suffering of people in Guinea, if the US is the Jay-Z of international politics, then Camara, to adjust the metaphor somewhat, is The Game of West African strongmen – it’ll take more than a bullet in the head to hold him back.

After convalescing for more than a month in Rabat, Camara arrived in Burkina Faso on Tuesday. There he is the guest of the government of President Blaise Compaore, who not coincidentally is the lead mediator for the Guinean crisis on behalf of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Will Camara go back to Guinea? Western powers wanted him to stay away, a message French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner reiterated to Compaore on a visit to Burkina Faso earlier this week. West African leaders seem more ambivalent about Camara – Xinhua (linked above) reports that “according to ECOWAS sources, Compaore had asked France to consider Camara in Guinea’s transition period, but the proposal was rejected by the French top diplomat.”

In any case, as Xinhua says, Camara’s return to West Africa has in and of itself raised issues that go beyond whether he returns to Guinea or not. In particular, some analysts fear that hardcore Camara loyalists and some members of his ethnic group might resort to violence if he does not return, potentially touching off a civil war.

With those concerns looming large, Camara’s presence in Burkina has already produced a lot of activity. Compaore has held “emergency talks” with Camara and Konate. As of this week, the latter had “made it clear that he wants to steer Guinea towards elections and has said the junta will accept an opposition prime minister” but “Ba Ouri, deputy leader of the United Democratic Forces, told the BBC that ‘agitators’ in Capt Camara’s entourage were trying to use him to pursue their own interests.” The demands for Camara’s return intensified when the Guinean junta released a statement saying, “We encourage and ask for the quick return of Capt Moussa Dadis Camara to Conakry. We are recommending that Gen Sekouba Konate bring him back.”

Some questions remain about the extent of Camara’s recovery, but Reuters reports that Camara himself also wants to go back to Guinea.

Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, Guinea’s wounded junta leader feels he was tricked into taking a flight to Burkina Faso instead of going back to Guinea and is determined to get home, officials said on Thursday.

[…]

“Dadis Camara understood that he would be getting off the plane in (Guinea’s capital) Conakry and was shocked when it was made clear that he would have to stay in Ouagadougou,” a senior Burkinabe official told Reuters, asking not to be named.

[…]

The Burkinabe official said Camara still wanted to return to Guinea but played down prospects of an imminent homecoming.

I honestly have no good sense of what might happen now. It is tempting to say that events are edging toward permitting Camara’s return, but there are very powerful people working hard to prevent that from happening. If he does return, though, it will be a blow to the power and prestige of France and the US in West Africa.

Guinea: Will International Pressure Result in a Democratic Transition?

International pressure on Guinea’s military junta continues, and the country’s leadership may give in to the demand to hold elections. The problem is, the leadership seems to be largely absent.

First, the pressure. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was in Burkina Faso on Sunday, coordinating strategies with Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore. Compaore is leading the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) mediation effort in Guinea, and that country’s crisis received major attention in Kouchner and Compaore’s meeting.

Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

On the Guinea crisis, Kouchner expressed hope that an African solution could be found because “it’s with the African Union that we began the journey and without it, the international community cannot do anything. It’s upon the Guinean people and the African community to control the situation during the transition and electioneering period.”

Kouchner also made it clear that with the current situation in Guinea and an interim government in power, the next elections are likely to be based on a second plan of its facilitator Compaore.

According to the French minister, the facilitator assured him that the consultations will be organized within the West African bloc ECOWAS in the coming week.

The Telegraph places Kouchner’s visit to Ouagadougou in a larger diplomatic context. Despite talk of an “African solution,” Philippe Rater writes, a flurry of American and French diplomatic activity has occurred, aiming to prevent the return to Guinea of nearly-assassinated former leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara. Washington and Paris fear that Camara’s reinstallation could spark civil war, or that he wouldn’t give up power, or both. Western powers much prefer to deal with Sekouba Konate, who has become caretaker leader of Guinea in Camara’s absence.

Early this month, Konate went for a week to Morocco to see Camara, whose medical condition is unclear, and the United States, France and Moroccan envoys all seized the occasion to meet the new junta chief. “Moroccans worked with the diplomatic corps, setting up the discussions,” a negotiator said.

Once they were over, Rabat revealed that “several working sessions have been held directly with General Konate or alternatively with senior French and American officials”.

Washington was represented by assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Johnnie Carson, while Paris was represented by Andre Parent, who is President Sarkozy’s advisder on Africa.

A plan was drawn up on sharing power, which was submitted to Konate. In return the Americans, French and Moroccans promised to train his army and to provide him with technical aid.

On January 6 Konate made a speech in which he offered to share power with a prime minister chosen by the opposition, and his decision was swiftly welcomed by Paris, Washington, Rabat and the regional Economic Community of West African States.

So, things could go the way Western diplomats hope. But with Konate potentially ill and out of the country himself (or perhaps not), no one is counting their democratic chickens yet, especially as Konate apparently “has a record of health problems and was evacuated to Morocco for treatment last year.”

When I think about politics, I tend to give more weight to institutional and environmental forces than to specific individuals, but this situation in Guinea is teaching me some lessons about individuals’ impact and the repercussions that wild chance and pure contingency can have. What if the bullet had missed Camara? What if Konate has a fatal heart attack? The fate of these individuals is playing a huge role in shaping the country’s trajectory right now. I’m not saying Konate is some kind of hero or savior, but it does seem we should hope, for the sake of Guinea’s prospects of avoiding a civil war, that Konate stays in good health and follows through on a transition to civilian rule. The military junta survived Camara’s absence, but things could get even shakier soon if Konate too is absent and there is no clear leadership in the country.

Saturday Links: Sudan Crisis, Nigeria’s Hardliners, Fighting in Niger, Somalia and Global Terrorism

I promise that I read more sources than just Reuters and VOA, but you’ll find a lot of links to their stories in this week’s roundup. Props to them for the informative and comprehensive reporting.

Everyone’s eyes are on Sudan:

• Hillary Clinton weighs in on the Sudanese elections.
• Reuters has two pieces on the 2011 referendum: one on challenges that would face an independent South Sudan, and one on the impact secession would have on Southern Sudanese living in the North.
• Check out International Crisis Group‘s multimedia presentation on Sudan.

Rumors fly that Guinea’s Sekouba Konate is sick:

Guinea’s health minister has denied reports that the country’s caretaker leader, Sekouba Konate, has been flown to Senegal for hospital treatment.

Abdoulaye Cherif Diaby told state radio that Mr Konate was going to Dakar, “for an official visit, but he is not sick”.

Earlier, unnamed officials had said the vice-president was ailing and possibly suffering from cirrhosis of the liver.

He has been in charge of Guinea while Capt Moussa Dadis Camara recovers in Morocco from an assassination attempt.

The Nigerian government will take a stronger line with perpetrators of religious violence, a minister says. Speaking of Nigeria, AFP discusses political problems there.

VOA: “The African Union is urging the United Nations to boost its support for Somalia’s fragile government in view of the rise of terrorist activity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian peninsula.”

Niger “neutralizes” a group of gunmen near the Mali border.

An interview with a Malian Tuareg leader (French). (h/t tweetsintheME)

What are you looking at today?

Saturday Links: Guinea, Mauritania, Casamance and More

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner wants Guinea’s (former?) military ruler, Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, to remain in Morocco and not return home. Meanwhile, back in Guinea itself,

[The] military government is trying to avoid international prosecution of security forces responsible for killing opposition demonstrators by vowing to purge the army of soldiers guilty of human rights abuses.

With the United Nations calling for International Criminal Court action against Guinea’s ruling military council, the country’s acting leader says he is addressing the issue internally.

General Sekouba Konate says the killing of opposition demonstrators September 28 has tarnished the uniform of Guinea’s army, sowing hatred and suspicion within  its ranks.

Konate says the vast majority of defense and security forces have remained faithful to their oath to protect people and property.  But he told soldiers that some among them are undermining their prestige. For many Guineans, Konate says, the army today is a problem.

So he says the military must pull out of its ranks those who soil the uniform, who betray their oaths, and who disgrace the army in national and international opinion.

The Obama administration recently cut off trade benefits for Niger, Madagascar, and Guinea, but extended new benefits to Mauritania. That has Reuters asking whether the decisions “give a lesson in how would-be coup makers should best behave if they want to get away with it.”

IRIN looks at education in the Casamance region of Senegal.

Sudan has passed a law on the 2011 referendum over the objections of Southern Sudanese MPs, who oppose “a clause that would allow southerners living outside South Sudan to cast absentee ballots.” The US State Department criticized the referendum law, saying it does not conform to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

Guinea: Turbulence Before A Crash Landing?

I waited last week to see whether Moussa Dadis Camara, Guinea’s military leader, would return to his country after recuperating in Morocco from an assassination attempt. Now the Times reports that Western powers are working to keep Camara out of Guinea. That rumor circulated last week, but this story appears to have substance:

Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, the military strongman of Guinea, who was wounded in a coup attempt on December 2, has made a full recovery, according to hospital sources. The authorities, however, are under huge pressure to delay discharging him.

“No one wants him out of there. This was just too good an opportunity to lose and no one wants him to go back,” a Western diplomat said.

Captain Camara has not spoken publicly since he was flown to the country after a senior aide shot him in the head, leading to speculation that he was in a coma.

“Unfortunately, he has made a full recovery … As the French proverb says, ‘Bad plants don’t die’,” the diplomat said.

Even before the coup attempt African and Western diplomats were discussing how to force him out of office. Ironically, Morocco, which has a tradition of accepting the world’s unwanted, was quietly mentioned as a place where a sumptuous villa awaited.

// <![CDATA[// A spokesman for Guinea’s junta has accused France of direct involvement in the assassination attempt on Camara, but no evidence currently backs that claim, and Prime Minister Kabine Komara distanced Guinea from the statement on Friday.

What will happen if Camara fails to return? The Economic Community of West African States, fearful of chaos spreading beyond Guinea’s borders, want to deploy peacekeepers there.

“A deep crisis in Guinea risks not just destabilising the country in the long term but could also compromise all our post-conflict peace efforts in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau and Ivory Coast,” Mohamed Ibn Chambas, president of the ECOWAS commission which coordinates the regional bloc’s activities, said.

[…]

“Because of the threat … I propose that we suggest to our superiors the preventative deployment of a humanitarian and civilian protection force that will help restore a climate of security for Guineans,” Chambas said at the talk’s opening.

Meanwhile, a lot of eyes are on Camara’s replacement, Sekouba Konate. Western powers apparently hope he will prove more flexible than Camara on issues of democracy and human rights. The junta’s reversal on the issue of negotiations with the opposition – first they canceled the talks, citing Camara’s absence, and now the talks are back on – could be a sign that Konate is indeed responding to external pressure. First, though, he has Guinea’s instability to contend with. Konate has called for discipline and calm in the country, but some analysts still worry that ethnic tensions could break into violence.

All of this is to say that the outcome of Camara’s shooting remains uncertain, though there is good reason to believe he will not return. In that case, Konate will face powerful internal and external forces, not all of which can be accomodated at once. Bowing to outside pressure, working with the opposition, and transitioning to democracy could help defuse political and ethnic rivalries. However, elections can easily provoke conflict, and Konate’s control of the military may not be firm enough to permit him to make choices that would diminish military power. Also, there are real incentives for Konate not to give up any control, and not to pursue democracy. And a ton of other factors and contingencies that I haven’t thought of. So he has some tough choices ahead of him.