As I’ve said before, there is cause for optimism regarding the peace process in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta. This week, however, there are causes for both pessimism and optimism.
First, the bad news: after “frank and fruitful” talks between the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) and Nigeria’s Federal Government last weekend, a military raid on the home of former MEND commander Christian Don Pedro threatened to jeopardize the ceasefire MEND has so far maintained. The raid followed a riot on Monday in which “hundreds of former gunmen looted shops, firebombed a police vehicle and assaulted dozens of people in the oil hub of Port Harcourt on Monday in protest against what they said was the non-payment of their October allowance.”
Leaders on both sides, despite tensions, seem reluctant to pursue conflict. Security forces arrested no one when they broke up Monday’s riot, and MEND leaders responded to Tuesday’s raid with a statement, not an attack.
Troop levels in the Delta are a sore point in general. MEND accuses the Joint Task Force (JTF) of deploying more and more soldiers to the region, though the military says this is not the case. Some Delta residents want all federal troops out now that a mechanism for peace is formally in place.
Spokesman for the Niger Delta state of Bayelsa Adeyi Asara tells VOA the federal government must reciprocate the region’s acceptance of a government-sponsored peace initiative by reviewing the presence of the military.
“It is time for these road blocks to be removed completely from our roads because it is slowing down the economy of the state,” he said. “You are also trying to scare away prospective investors because they might be thinking it is a war zone. The soldiers can be withdrawn to their barracks and allow the police to do their work. We have given the federal government our words; no more militancy. But the people should also be loosened.”
Many former militants have also asked the federal government to withdraw thousands of troops stationed in the Niger Delta. Security analysts warn the situation in the Niger Delta remains fragile, despite what has been acclaimed as “a highly successful” amnesty and disarmament program.
Military spokesman in the region Timothy Antigha says security forces are not in a hurry to leave and that the government will decide the fate of the military task force deployed in the Niger Delta.
And the last item in the bad news department is that some Niger Delta residents say the amnesty has encouraged former militants to pursue criminal activity. The riots appear to have badly shaken residents and businesspersons in Port Harcourt, though the linked article does not provide evidence that there has been a wave of criminality apart from that incident. Without further reporting, I can’t tell whether people are simply voicing a fear of the militants or whether crime is truly on the rise. If it is, though, political support for the amnesty could take a hit.
Now for some good news, which mostly concerns money flows. As of yesterday, “the Federal Government…commenced payment of arrears of allowances owed former militants in various camps in the Niger Delta.” This article notes that militants have fought each other in the rehabilitation camps, potentially bolstering the crime argument, but if money reaches those to whom it has been promised, perhaps tensions will decrease.
The Nigerian government has also concluded a $1 billion agreement with the EU “aimed at combating corruption and promoting peace in its troubled, oil-producing Niger Delta region” in the period from 2009 to 2013. Perhaps those funds will also boost the prospects for peace and reconstruction. Whether a budget crisis in the Nigerian National Assembly will affect the Federal Government’s ability to undertake a stimulus program in the Delta I can’t say, but in any case it seems money is already flowing to the region.
As an added bonus, relative peace in the Delta may be increasing Nigeria’s capacity to deliver electricity to residents.
So there you have it, evidence for both the cynics and the hopeful. I’ll conclude by saying that we can note both that the peace process is not problem-free and that it is far from over.